i think the view is that trabo doesn't have the redness effect but may not be as effective in IOP lowering - and that applies in comparison to both AERI's drug and timolol. BUT - i have some confidence that there is a dose relationship with trabo that should reveal comparable IOP lowering as AERI/timolol with higher trabo doses. AND possibly efficacy in some patients not responsive to prostaglandins.
but where is that data? would be great if it did show solid IOP improvement at higher trabo doses and efficacy in patients not responding to a prostanoid - but where is it? ITEK plans to present today and over the next month - but it always seems to be meaningless news - just that they started phase 3 which isn't news at all.
ITEK won't have anything to report at today's conference - just that they started phase 3. ITEK will have no new data or partnership news for about a year. They'll just burn cash on administrative matters until phase 3 reads out - and in the meantime the stock will drift lower. I own ITEK but unfortunately this is my expectation - because this is what happens when news won't be forthcoming until the distant future.
Also - there were reports that AKBA met with UBS yesterday. Perhaps that is why AKBA's CFO did the Credit Suisse presentation and not the CEO? Hard to say. But again - pretty massive 20% sell off in just a few days and radio silence from the company.
Did anyone listen to the webcast at the Credit Suisse conference by AKBA's CFO? I did not and it's not posted on AKBA's site. I'd like an update on Asian partnership discussions. I'm wondering if the CEO's prediction of a deal by year end was bluster.
Also - OCUL's results are negatively impacting ITEK while benefiting AERI, for some reason, perhaps because ITEK less likely to beat timolol in IOP lowering
the other issue is that AKBA does not have a partner while Fibrogen does - and this is always viewed as an indirect measure of the drug since big pharma generally does thorough due diligence before partnering. AKBA really needs to get a Japanese or other ex-US partner, that would help alot on both finances and the market perception of their drug
i think it was largely due to overall bio softness but also anticipation of the release of Fibrogen's data which looked pretty good (although i note they had 2 deaths). I do think Fibrogen will be first to market - and i'm not sure i see a differentiating positive for AKBA's drug - but on the positive side Fibrogen will show the mechanism works and there is certainly room for two players in a very large market.
it's vested, not vesting, and i guess you don't have such an interest and are just the objective voice that everyone needs to hear, right?
where is your source indicating the phase 2 combo trial completed a few months ago? clinicaltrials.gov indicates the trial completed about a year ago - and i have not seen any results, top line or otherwise, from the trial.
not sure what Bill is complaining about. I have a "risk" account in which i make concentrated bets on biotechs. I'm down about 800k in this downdraft but have long time horizon and am not that depressed (at least not yet)
don't recall what the IPO was - i originally bought at avg of $4.70 - and sold recently at $11-12. I may buy back in after ASH - i am waiting to see what data is released. I think TGTX will make a good showing with 1101, 1202, and the combo 1303 - but it's the competitor therapies in development that may influence the stock price of TGTX, in my opinion.
practically all of pre-phase III biotech has been decimated. I actually sold about half of my TGTX between 11-12 and bought some ITEK and AKBA, and then got beat up on those. Among pre-phase III biotechs, i'd suggest identifying the strongest (ie, those with phase II data that looks compelling and differentiated relative to close competitors) and spread your bets among several names. I often concentrate my investments but lately i've seen often seen odd ups and downs in smaller biotechs, often without any technical reason.
clearly, trabo is a better drug - and for that reason i'm surprised at ITEK's weakness - but the mkt just pulls it lower. It's starting to act like it's putting in a floor - so it might not make it down to the 5's - but still weak so be careful buying here. As i said - when it does put in a floor - buy (and yes, buy alot, mystical being or not)
by the way, i think what is weighing on TGTX is the lack of clarity regarding the emergence of PDL1s for a number of tumor types. CART too. For example, w/ new data releases just this week, some docs are say PDL1 drugs may be best for 2nd line RCC - even better than EXEL's drug which also released data and looks promising. Hard to say how this will play out for CLL, etc - but i think there is a worry that TGTX's drugs while good may not get as much attention