There is often a post-conference pull back for biotechs like this. In other words, they often trend upward in price as a major conference approaches where the company (TGTX) will present and then follow with a bit of a decline. This happens at ASCO every year. So I wouldn't be surprised if TGTX traded back down a bit after ASH. How far down will it go? Hard to say - maybe in the range of 12-15, and so you might be able to pick up some shares in the 12s.
We've seen these spikes #$%$ few d#$%$ys now, #$%$nd my thought h#$%$s been th#$%$t it might be due to some new fund #$%$nd/or institution#$%$l investments, possibly #$%$ single signific#$%$nt buyer trying to e#$%$se (not so subtly) into #$%$ new or exp#$%$nded position in the stock. Some might specul#$%$te th#$%$t it could #$%$lso be someone with #$%$dv#$%$nced knowledge of #$%$ potenti#$%$l p#$%$rtnership, de#$%$l or new d#$%$t#$%$ rele#$%$se. Th#$%$t sometimes h#$%$ppens - #$%$nd obviously it gets SEC #$%$ttention bec#$%$use it's b#$%$sed on none public inform#$%$tion th#$%$t somehow gets le#$%$ked out #$%$ bit - but i re#$%$lly h#$%$ve no w#$%$y if th#$%$t is occurring here, so i've #$%$ssumed it's one or more new big buyers.
i've told you before that there are much better short ideas out there. SNSS is one in particular - their lead drug just failed phase III, the stock collapsed, but now it has jumped 40% on news that they will present at ASH. Probably a good short idea cause they likely won't present any new or more compelling data at ASH and thus the stock will decline after the conference.
But the data release for TGTX will be positive at ASH - and they'll likely mention data not even suggested in the ASH abstracts, such as data from the ongoing 1101+1202+ibrutinib trial, which will be even more positive. So TGTX continues to be a bad short idea - but then again, my guess is that you'll continue to beat your head against the wall here because you hate to be told you are wrong.
honestly, i'm not expecting TGR-1202 to be better than ibrutinib. 1202 works via a different biological mechanism - so it's really complementary. 1202 has a relatively clean tox profile, and it holds the promise of being better than Gilead's idelasib in terms of tox and combinability profile and may even be better in efficacy in certain combinations. Also, it may hold promise outside the oncology area - for example, in treating lupus.
That captures the forthcoming news - but also: a) 1101 + 1202 + ibrutinib trial update, where we could hear that it works and doesn't introduce tox concerns (recall - it's very unlikely idelasib could do this type of combo due to tox issues), b) other 1202 combination trials that are ongoing, c) news about Gilead's idelasib trials in combo's where the trial had to be stopped due to tox (which would be positive for 1202)
yes - and TGTX will surely be volatile, may even drift back to 11-12, but i'm betting it'll end up above 20, maybe above 30
he's hurting - got a big margin call on that last short at 11.55. needs a big loan - and if we'll step up and help, he's promised to stop posting and to change his name to "iamanidiot". Who's in?
you are such a liar. you pick the high of the stock on any given day and proclaim at the end of trading that you somewhat timed that high exactly and went short the stock at that point. Such BS. you lost money on your last short - and everyone knows that because it was at 11.55 and the stock blew through that on upside.
worth more than that - the number of employees is irrelevant here. it's the value of the clinical candidates once all the data is reported. If the data flow continues to be positive, TGTX is worth at least 30 in a buyout - and possibly more once ph III reads out
I think he was actually a short. I've seen them crop up in biotech stocks that they target as potentially movable w/ a lot of bashing. I thought this stock was not a good one for that strategy, and my guess is that he ended up with a loss. I haven't a peep from him since TGTX started to move up.
For ibrutinib + 1101, if the data (w/ additional patients not reflected in the ASH abstract) continues to show over 90% ORR and no indication of antagonism of ADCC via the ibrutinib mechanism, that would be very positive going into ph. III. Also, if they report some data from the ongoing ibrutinib + 1101 + 1202 trial, and it looks positive with no indication of undue toxicity (as has been seen with idelasib in complex combination trials), then that would be extra positive. Then add more positive data related to 1101 + 1202 trial and the 1202 monotherapy trial. If all the foregoing, then i'd say close to 15.
i'm not really bothered by it. I just think that Weiss is a good CEO from an investor perspective - he seems focused on a quick path to approval, he maintains a very large stake in the company, and he has, thus far, tried to avoid serial secondary offerings. I own MACK as well - and the CEO of that company seems a bit more academic or research oriented, and less focused on investor interests. But even if another CEO is appointed for TGTX, i think Weiss will remain a strong force at the company (probably at the Board level)
The other two things that i noted from the conference call: 1) Weiss is an "interim" CEO. i didn't appreciate this - i think he is very focused on the share price and efficiency, so i assume he'll remain deeply involved even if a permanent CEO is appointed. 2) there is an interest in pursuing 1101 and 1202, alone or together, in autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis and lupus. This is great, but Weiss was clear that these trials probably wouldn't get going until end of 2015 at earliest (which is fine - many, many useful ideas in the oncology setting).
It was positive in general. A few issues: 1) Weiss seemed to suggest that as more patients are added, the ORR for ibrutinib/1101 in the refractory CLL setting will drop slightly from 94% to about 90% or 90% plus 1-2% but this remains well ahead of ibrutinib alone which is around 55-70% in this setting; 2) ibrutinib + 1101 + 1202 is still ongoing but not many patients in the study at present. There has been recent reports of tox issues when combining idelasib in complex combinations like this, but those tox issues have not emerged thus far in this particular trial (but it's early days). it appears they will report preliminary data from this - or at least on the status - at ASH; 3) there will be an analyst meeting at ASH and investors will be able to dial into that.
you are probably right about RA Capital. Going it alone would be tough - they don't have the infrastructure, experience, etc to manufacture, pursue registration in multiple jurisdictions, and market these two drugs - i think the ultimate goal here is to partner or pursue a buyout, but at the right price point for Weiss - which is at a much higher stock price (given how much of a personal financial stake he has in this company)
I think it was generally positive, but i think the stock will dip tomorrow. MACK has alot of viable, strong clinical drugs and programs but is run somewhat like a Kendall Square research organization and less like a biotech focused on getting the stock price up. I continue to hold thousands of shares but do agree with those who view the salaries as a bit rich. I prefer to keep salaries a bit tight and align incentives with stock appreciation.