Hi - i really don't think TGTX bad news is likely but there is an increasing view, esp in the onco area, that if a) you are not in immuno-onco you may have a higher burden (due to perceived OS disadvantage), b) if there are strong emerging close or closing competitors, then you should have a compelling story that includes efficacy. TGTX's clinical candidates are strong but they are still a safety story which makes TGTX somewhat less compelling than onco stocks having an efficacy advantage. But, long term, TGTX's candidates will likely get approved and used more than expected due to efficacy that is at the high end plus the noted AE advantage. But the initial headwinds remain and in this climate it leads to an unfortunate TGTX rout cause the near term risks remain and everything's going down. I follow TGTX but i'm in XLRN, AIMT and a few much smaller holdings
Nice! I too bought at the exact low, sold at the exact high and then shorted at the exact high. Some of us just get lucky that way.
i am familiar with the study design - but the question of how much trabo can actually lower IOP relative to already approved therapies, including timolol, has dogged the stock. Trabo may be safer but efficacy needs to be on par with already approved agents to get commercial uptake
Also - was any new data or potential deal (partnership) information shared? I plan to listen to the webcast (assuming they'll provide an accessable recording at the ITEK site) but haven't done it yet
Did they say anything about the timolol comparator arm? i know that showing a benefit relative to timolol isn't needed for approval but timolol's higher than expected IOP lowering in some recent trials (possibly due to new formulations of timolol) has weighed on ITEK share price since being at least comparable to timolol is seen as important from a commercial perspective.
Totally agree! But i think you mean take a bow at 3 cents/share and then leave at 8 cents
maybe but i doubt it - wait until the Fed raises rates, some volatility should follow including swing days (down/up), may see a dip below 10 which would give rise to a compelling buying price
i have been watching TGTX to see if the "increased competition" sentiment over plays to the downside and provides a very compelling price to step in. It is very difficult to project how this might play out except this - i do think their phase III trials will read out positive and that in itself should provide a compelling catalyst (but i'm a bit unclear in terms of when to expect top line results)
Thanks - i owned TGTX from $4.70 per share - that was my average on 101,000 shares, which i sold this year for about $13 per share. Made a good profit and would have held but was concerned that the slow erosion we are now seeing (despite consistently positive data) might materialize in view of emerging competition (which everyone on this board disputes - but whatever, this was just an investment for me, not a moral cause)
Right - and i see that your sentiment is shared broadly within the broader investor community
true - but acalabrutinib ORR in RR CLL was 95% with 100% among those with 17p13.1 deletion. High AEs but most grades 1 or 2. As i see it 1101 + ibrutinib provides ORR of 88% (10% CR) in RR CLL plus 95% (15% CR) in high risk group (defined as 17p, 11q, p53). Similar AEs - somewhat high but mostly grade 1-2. Both therapy approaches look good and what happens when you add a glyco engineered CD20 to acalabrutinib?
That's a big number for Acerta - as their new drug's label is limited in scope to Xalkori intolerant or nonresponding patients but they may see potential in other indications and may have more in their pipeline. For TGTX, i'd say potential buyers include those that have an existing or emerging blood cancer onco pipeline and that's a number of companies - even excluding those that already have a PI3k therapeutic (Gilead) or CD20 therapeutic (Biogen, Genentech).
TGTX, for the reasons that i've previously posted (which many dispute - and make great points - but the tape is the tape), may languish until a key catalyst which, frankly, may be phase III data. i'd be a buyer under $10 per share.
All good points - i'm just providing the "perception" that i think really exists and weighs on the stock but i agree for the above reasons that 1101 and 1202 have clear advantages. Either hold onto the TGTX you have or wait a bit to buy in - but do get in for what i think will ultimately be a buy out