As you've probably heard, Everett Golson, is not academically eligible for this coming Fall football season. No matter, imo, although he's a very good athlete, he isn't a very consistent QB. Kinda' like Tebow. Yes, he often wins, but it's often UGLY, and gut wrenching. Speaking of gut wrenching, whatcha' think about GWM at this time, being a cellar dweller? Buy of the century, or, right where it should be, due to being long on talk, and short on execution? I know that I've mentioned TC to you, because they imo, look to have their act together, finally. Whether on their own, or, even if acquired, they should be turning a fairly tidy profit soon. There's been speculation about HBM, possibly being a good fit for them, but again, I'd kinda' prefer that they remain independent, and reap the benefits of turning a profit next year, and beyond. Imo, one worth looking at. Oh well, ND shouldn't have set the stage for Gunner to transfer to Cincinnati, but at least they've got Tommy Boy, Rees that is. He's at least solid and steady, and if they plug holes elsewhere, should do just fine. Take care.
HudBay/Thompson Creek combo would be earnings monster--Ecclestone
If a HudBay/Thompson Creek combine was achieved the entity would have a significant option on the future of the moly price, contends Hallgarten analyst Christopher Ecclestone.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Wednesday , 22 May 2013
RENO (MINEWEB) -
Putting Thompson Creek Metals together with HudBay would take both companies out of the mid-tier ranks “and create a new Canadian-based major capable of accreting mining assets and bringing them to fruition,” suggests Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten & Company.
“HudBay has a long history as a plodder,” Ecclestone wrote in an analysis published Tuesday. “Its sole attempt to break out of this mold was particularly ill-timed and involved a bid for Lundin Mining at the darkest hour in 2008 for mining share prices and base metals prices.”
“HudBay is an institution in the largely depleted mid-tier space in Canada,” Ecclestone noted. “The carnage in the ranks of major Canadian miners left HudBay as a lonely survivor” in the ranks of diversified miners with Teck and the former Inmet being its only “lookalikes” out there.
Meanwhile, Thompson Creek was a “rock star with a multi-billion dollar market cap and a frenzied trading activity on the New York Stock Exchange” in the days of $30 Moly, Ecclestone observed. “The undoing of TC was twofold. Moly prices strangely never recovered well from the 2008 slump.”
“The second blow came from TC’s attempt to break out of the orbit of moly alone. It decided to go after a more binary solar system in the form of copper,” he noted. “Not a bad concept but the execution left something lacking.”
“To fund this TC had to more aggressively milk its existing assets (i.e. the moly mines). Ideally, the company should have been reducing moly output to give the metal price a bit of a kick-start but instead TC found the capital demands required more production not less. Debt burdens and financing fears sunk the stock price thus compounding the financing problems.”
“This is what has brought TC to its current sorry pass,” Ecclestone asserted.
“So what is there out there that would be transformative for HudBay? The most obvious target that comes to mind is Thompson Creek Metals,” Ecclestone contends. “…We would say that it meets quite a number of criteria for an attractive stock-only merger.”
“Those elements are: [it is] inexpensive, due to battered share price; uninspiring senior management; large copper/gold (Mt Milligan) mine coming on-stream shortly; substantial existing cash flow; existing moly roaster in the U.S.; debt stressed,” he suggested.
“The main risks for such a transaction are: HudBay over-paying (First Quantum has shown unsolicited bids can win the day in the current environment); moly continuing to be flaccid for many years to come; capex overruns at Constancia becoming a burden for the merged group,” he added.
“Moly’s price is not great but neither is it disastrous,” Ecclestone noted. “In any case it is shortly going to have a much healthier product mix with sizeable copper and gold coming out of Mt Milligan. TC is a bargain at his time but will not stay that way no matter what happens to moly.”
“Once the revenue from Mount Milligan turns the tide on net cash flow then the opportunity will be lost,” Ecclestone asserted. “TC would plug the revenue gap at HudBay where funds look likely to continue flowing out until 2015 to support the Constancia build-out.”
“If a HudBay/Thompson Creek combine was achieved the entity would be an earnings monster with a significant option on the future of the moly price,” Ecclestone claimed. “If that metal can struggle up from the current $11 per lb. to around $15 (not an outrageous expectation) then there would be a big kicker for revenues. Only zinc in the HudBay portfolio holds such bullish expectations in our minds.”
Putting together Thompson Creek and HudBay “would not only be an equation of one plus one equals three but move the combined up the totem pole both in Canadian and global rankings,” Ecclestone concluded. “It would create a major new Western Hemisphere mining major.”
Agreed, they can reward themselves for a job well done, AFTER they've turned the corner, imo, not before. Complete MM and become quite profitable first, and then we can talk additional compensation.
Oh, it looks to have a six handle for sure, and with any good news, imo, could get there a whole lot quicker than most people think. I'm ADDING.
gcoffman, haven't heard any news all day, what's the latest fiasco? Hmmm, just checked my online account, my $3.45 limit buy order filled, sweet! Now, will my next one, for $3.25? Here's to hoping, give me all your shares cheap people, I'm hungry for more!
dtime, I think that you just may be onto something. The $6 handle is what it fell off from about a year ago. It could march right back up there before pausing, then $7, on it's way back to $9, when most folks start coming around, again. This time tho, when it climbs back up, it's likely to stay there, imo, we'll see.
Do, of coarse, you forgot about the doo-doo. Even grass eaters are poop machines. Naw, just know when your lawn needs to be aerated, fertilized. watered and mowed, You want peace and quiet? Just get a decent Black and Decker, electric, cordless mower, they are quiet, powerful, efficient and you get the fresh cut grass smell, without the gas, from the mower, or the wildlife. Hmmm, you do miss out on the winter meat, but again, have less piles to pick up, or step in. Hey, those electric mower motors use any REE's? It would be nice if GWM would start producing enought REE's, to turn a profit. When's everything to be up and running?!
This spring has been coiled for a while now. Stocks like these can often move much quicker than many people think they will. I'm still in accumulation mode.
timaiday, hmmm, an honest post imo. You don't have to even be 50% to do well, that's for sure. I'm with you on the common at this point, it looks very undervalued to me, and without any time constraints. As for me, I'm holding for a much higher pps. I've had buys on TC where I've been early, but held them and made even early buys, profitable. As you said though, if there are any options plays that look like a decent risk, I'd appreciate you or others sounding off, as I am BULLISH of TC going forward. Take care.
Do, imo, the same old 1-2 cent shuffle, as folks speculate whether GWM makes it, or not. I'd like to see signs that they'll be able to do what they've been saying but we'll see.
It means a normal day in the life of "Great Western Minerals" trading imo. Still looks like ssdd to me, but what do I know? Oh yes, that TC is undervalued, and looking to trade, UP! ;)
Yep, imo, Barack and Hillary "gots some splainin' ta' do", I'd imagine that even Lucy thinks so. The most transparent administration ever? My foot! Hmmm, transparent perhaps, but not in a good way, as it's clear that lie, deny, and accuse the accuser, is too often par for the course with this crowd, imo. Ah, and then sic the IRS on those that dare to say that "The king has no clothes" in an "Off with their heads" sort of mentality. People, we have to vote better, if we are to ever receive better leadership, one with at least a freakin' clue.
It's true, that the sector has been crushed, but imo, GWM hasn't been doing themselves any favors. They've had quite a bit of management turnover, various delays, problems at the mine, are considering a share consolidation, are curbing spending/conserving cash, had less than impressive revenues this past quarter, some difficulty providing feedstock to furnaces, have borrowed money to pay back, and seemingly not enough to build out the mine to market vision imo. Personally, I've lost trust in the company, since past words, have not meshed well imo, with actions. Imo, they don't appear to be operating from much of a position of power or strength, but we'll see. I'll wait and watch until it becomes more obvious as to whether they'll succeed or not. Again, not enough clarity for me personally at this point.
Do, imo, TC looks to have backfilled, and filled the gap, prior to the last move up. Any whiff of positive news and imo, the upward march should continue. In the meantime, buying the dips, we'll see ...
It'll likely run, as the gap appears to have filled imo. I'll be adding again on Monday morning, and on any dips that may occur, as I see much better days, and pps ahead. Too much value to ignore, imo.
Agreed, other companies shortcomings will likely benefit TC. They look to be ready to come online at the relative beginning of a sweet spot in the market/cycle.
Grammatical errors aside, I agree, TC is undervalued, and a steal. I'm stealing, er', buying, on each and every dip, in anticipation of positive developments from MM to follow.
For about 52% of it, yes. For the other 48%, they get the going rate, of which, their production cost is much lower. Plus, mining for gold, when you're already mining for copper, is not all that much more of an expense. Copper, imo, should be their bread and butter, and their costs for that is very low. TC looks to become a cash cow, once MM is fully operational imo.