Yesterday, the Bear on CLX...B.Riley raised its price target from $102 to $109. As far as I know the Bulls with Price Targets ranging from $125 - $140 have been silent. Anybody hear of any other changes in guidance from analysts?
If I were the CEO of WMT I'd fire the VP of Investor Relations. Permitting the market to give AMZN a different set of standards to be evaluated by is unforgivable. In 2016 WMT had revenues of $482B. By contrast AMZN recorded revenue of $107B. WMT had Net Income Before Tax (NIBT) of $21.6B, paid $6.5B in taxes and Net Income after Tax (NIAT) of $14.7B. By comparison, AMZN recorded NIBT of $1.6B, taxes of $1B and NIAT of .6B. Today WMT trades with a PE of 16 and AMZN, .....which manages its earning either up or down without consistency... trades at an assumed PE of 162. My point is this. It's clear AMZN has a strategic objective to drive most retailers out of business. Which BTW isn't in the best interest of the country...but, that's a different subject for another time. So....what I don't understand is why WMT's Investor Relations VP isn't demanding a level playing field. Because frankly, given AMZN's objective, if I were the CEO's of WMT, TGT, Macy's, Kohl's or Safeway, I'd be reducing my NIBT to 1% of sales..... and reinvesting the balance of earnings in the business. For WMT, that means redeploying nearly $17B annually - monies that could be used to reduce prices, increase wages and build more competitive systems....The Objective...Make AMZN Irrelevant within 3 Years! It's time for WMT and other retailer to up the Ante....and then let's see who folds. Bottom-line....I don't blame AMZN or Bezo...they're simply manipulating the market to achieve their goals. I blame the analysts and the hedge fund managers for supporting what is arguably a different set of standards . And, if I were the CEO of WMT, I'd put an end to it.
It's not done for. It's just way over valued at $200. Musk's biggest mistake was not raising $5 billion at $240 when he had the chance 6 mos ago. But, he cared more about the share price then he did about the cash. And, now he'll be forced to raise the funds at far lower prices.
I agree. But, whether you Love Cramer or Hate him.....you ignore his comments at your peril. Not because he's always right....I have more than my share of complaints about some of the "Hype" he feeds us. No....the reason you need to pay attention....particularly in the short run....is because he has 944,000 Twitter followers and 2 hours of showtime on CNBC every day.....and that makes him a market force to be reckoned with. Thanks for your feedback.
For two years I've been listening to Cramer tell anyone who would listen that TSLA is a Cult Stock. And, because it held this unique position...... he had neither a Buy nor Sell recommendation to make. However, this morning he finally got off the fence and for all practical purposes said the company's valuation is now a joke. Bottom-line....Musk over played his hand. And, that clearly #$%$ Cramer off. Like I said yesterday....to anyone listening.....Musk just became "The Music Man" pitching a vision that for any reasonable investor....makes no sense at all. Good luck.
This morning the 10 year US Bond is yielding 1.8%. Now I think that's ridiculous...particularly given the amount of US debt. But, that doesn't matter. Because one of the unintended consequences of US interest rate policy (QED forever) is the US Debt structure when compared to a lot of countries around the world is now arguably better than most.... Which brings me to CLX. Yellen's reluctance to raise rates makes CLX very attractive. After all, its a well run company that consistently beats analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line. Selling at $129/share, CLX pays a reliable annual dividend of $3.08....yielding 2.38%. That's preferable to 1.8%. Right?. So, let's buy CLX and drive the price up until it yields 2%. It will still yield more than a 10 year treasury. And, at 2% CLX will trade at $154 and your investment today at $129 will return 22% (2% dividend + 20% price appreciation). Will the stock then be overvalued? Of course....if your only valuation metrics are the company's YOY revenue growth and the PE. But, if you are an institutional investor searching for yield in Yellen's Lower for Longer Interest Rate.environment, a dependable dividend like the one offered by CLX is almost A No Brainer :) That's why Cramer loves CLX......What do you think..... Shall we back up the truck....and Buy, Buy, Buy? Let me know.
I didn't participate in the earnings call but I understand Musk refused to tell the audience where the money was coming from to build-out the plant & equip required to support the "Big Dream". 500,000 cars in 2018. Really? Assume for a moment the stated goal is not just a lot of "Hype" to keep stock prices high....like the promise he made earlier this year to be cash flow positive...when things also didn't look very good. How much cash is going to be required to achieve the Big Dream? One analyst today suggested the price could be $10 - $12 billion in new financing. Assuming all equity at $200/share that's another 50 - 60 million shares to be issued...taking total O/S shares from 130 million to 190 million.... 50% dilution?. Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that mean the share price is likely to be cut in half?....as we wait for the "Big Dream" to be realized. I don't know about you, but I'm not willing to put-up $220 today to purchase what arguably will be worth $120 tomorrow. That said....what I really think is.... Musk is "The Music Man". He knows there's very little chance Tesla can achieve the goal. And, the two manufacturing execs that just left .....know it too. But, its a great "Musical Vision". And...when you are the CEO of an "Over-Hyped" public company that isn't meeting its current objectives...you "Turn Up the Volume" and pray nobody realizes the symphony orchestra is nothing more than a 5 piece band.. Question: Do You Hear the Music? Are you dancing to the tune of the Music Man? :)
Thanks. The truth is, unless CMG decided to borrow a bunch of cash, they don't have the money or the where with all to fight off a concerted effort on the part of Short Sellers to "Rationalize" the price of this stock.
The avg daily trading volume in CMG is 1.3 million shares. Mr. Cramer: If you were the CFO of CMG would you be aggressively buying back shares at these Multiples simply to keep the price high? Would you exhaust all of CMG's cash over the next 30 days trying to protect the price? Would you encourage CMG to borrow $500 million, eroding this pristine balance sheet, simply to preserve what is arguably an over inflated share price? The reason I'm asking is this., O'reilly Auto Parts (ORLY), another Cramer favorite, has now increased its Debt to $1.9 billion, borrowing $500m on 3/1/16 to support its buy back of an additional 1.5 million shares..... AT ALL TIME HIGHS! ($265/share). Please note: Insiders at ORLY during this period also sold over 200k shares, arguably paid for with the $500m in new debt? Mr. Cramer, from a shareholder perspective, is the buy back of overly inflated shares a Prudent or Sleazy Management policy when a principle beneficiary of that buy-back is "Insider Selling"? The reason I ask....CMG insiders according to Yahoo Finance have also sold over 300k shares over the last 6 mos....shares which arguably would have commanded a far lower price had management not aggressively "Burned Through" a $1 billion in funds in an effort to support the stock. In your judgement Mr. Cramer.....is that really A PRUDENT USE OF CAPITAL?
ORLY's Debt now stands at $1.9B. Why? Because Management is apparently trying to support a PE multiple of 26 when company revenues are expected to grow only 3-5% in 2016, Similarly EPS over the next 5 years is expected to grow only 15%....and that's only because ORLY repurchased nearly 51 million shares since 2011. Don't get me wrong....there's nothing wrong with a little financial engineering. Buying back company shares when prices are low makes a lot of sense. But, repurchasing shares at all time highs...and borrowing the money to do so...seems a little imprudent...perhaps even foolish. AND WHEN SMART PEOPLE DO DUMB THINGS....ALWAYS FOLLOW THE MONEY. PLEASE NOTE: OVER THE LAST 6 MONTHS OFFICERS/DIRECTORS HAVE SOLD 206,000 SHARES, MANY OF THOSE SHARES AT PRICES ABOVE $260.....THE SAME PRICE THE COMPANY WAS BUYING SHARES FOR LAST QTR ....USING MORE BORROWED MONEY.
If you own shares in this company...is that OK with you? Let me know what you think.
PER TODAY'S PRESS RELEASE:
"Company repurchased 1.2 million shares of its common stock, at an average price
per share of $254.02, for a total investment of $313 million. Subsequent to the
end of the first quarter and through the date of this release, the Company
repurchased an additional 0.3 million shares of its common stock, at an average
price per share of $270.61, for a total investment of $71 million. "
There are 12,000 contracts still open and expiring tomorrow @ $33. If the option holders consist of several hedge funds and they choose to exercise their positions ...would you have up to 1.2 million shares traded at the open on Monday? And, what would that do to the opening price? Anybody have any ideas?
......SKX is trading at $33....and there are 14,000 calls open at $33 and expiring today. Now this should be fun. How long do you think the Option Writer's will be able to keep the stock down before they are forced to cover? Any guesses?
I checked it out and you're right........ the valuations are out-of-line. Should be good news for SKX. Very astute observation. Thx.
Thanks for taking the time to lay it out for me. Appreciate it. I think you have a sound strategy for taking a long term position in the stock and I agree over the next several weeks there is potential for a pull back to around $86....it's 200 day moving average. Thanks again.
The answer to your question is......The Option Writer's. They don't want to pay off on the bets made on the April Calls. But, the Writer's have a problem. Not only are the fundamentals strong....the technical indicators (Momentum, Chaikin Money Flow, MACD, MA, Stochastics, Elliot Wave....) are all getting stronger by the minute. If Option players rolled up their positions by buying more calls for May expiration, the Writer's would cover these new May contracts by buying the stock.....and obviously the value of the shares would rise. But, no one is buying Calls for May.....so there's only the action of those who want to own a long term position in JRJC and they seem to be taking their time. If you want to see the Share Price of JRJC rise today...start buying the May $6 Calls...and more than likely you'll get the move you're looking for. Because as you said....there are no shorts to squeeze. So the only way to create the demand is to BUY MAY CALLS.
Tell you what....If I had $200 mill to play with I'd be BUYING this stock on any weakness....and by Friday you'd be deep in the money :) Good luck!
MS raised price target to $91 from $79 this morning. MKC closed yesterday @ $96.72 down $2.18. What do you think...Sell?
A Form 4 was filed today by each of Murphy, Kelly, Evans, Carroll and Bienert reflecting the exercise and sale of options @ $30.25 on 4/12. Bottom-Line....Senior Management / Insiders continue to sell in quantity going into the Qtrly Earnings Announcement which is scheduled for Wed. 5/4. I don't know about you, but if they are selling at $30....and by this time they know what the results for Q1 are.....why should I be buying the stock at $31? Can anybody shed some light on this action for me....because I'm a little confused.