So are the futures down because Obama ok'd air strikes? What does this have to do with the US economy? This is low level / low risk military action. This is not gonna have a long-term effect. Sorry, sky's not falling. Come on, the US bombs the terrorists in Pakistan and Yemen all the time. Does this impact the stock market?
Ok it looks like mBLY supplies vision + radar solutions. But no mention of radar only or laser based solutions. So someone else is providing these solutions.
If you look up crash avoidance in Wikipedia, they summarize the technology used by different auto manufacturers. For many of auto makers that mobileye lists as a customer, they use technology such as radar and laser. On mobileye's website I see mention of monocular vision with camera only. So, are these auto makers / tier 1 oems augmenting the solution on their own? Or are they using solutions from a competitor?
They have $129M in cash. They plan to use $30M to buy inventory. Did they need the IPO to do this? Maybe not. They could have used their cash. It's my speculation that the IPO was less about funds for growth but more about insiders unloading. The insiders dumped $800M of stock.
In July 2013, they sold $400million in equity. If you look at the balance sheet, fom 2012 to 2013, I see only $100M increase (diff in total assets and debt). Where did the other $300M go?
All this means is that there are 5M more shares acquired at $25 that can be dumped at $30 for a profit.
You need to do your research. They sold 1M units in 2013. Revenue was $80M. That implies $80 ASP. Where do you come up with the $200 figure?
Insanely high gross margins of 70-80%. Specialized technology. Sockets at tier 1 OEMs. Key questions are 1) did they leave any scraps to post IPO investors and 2) will these safety features become standard? Regarding 1, very high valuations with high price to sales. Is weak price action simply a reflection of over pricing the IPO? Regarding 2, the institute of highway safety does a good job at summarizing which features are offered on which model. You can google to find the webpage. It looks like these features are available on many models in 2014 but haven't gained widespread adoption. I really think these features need to become standard in order for the volumes to kick in. Haven't seen anything to indicate this will happen in the near-term
Initial analyst ratings have come and gone. Lackluster earnings has come and gone. Next event might be next Hero product announcement but that is a long way off. I'm guessing it's not until October. Until then, a lot of downside risk and limited upside based on valuation. As I've said, pointless to be long unless you just don't value your money.
The biggest question I have is that as a startup, prior to IPO, they assumed a large debt to give shareholders (including themselves) a dividend. Does this sound like the right thing to do for a startup? Do you realize where the proceeds of the IPO went? Half of it went to selling shareholders. The other half went to pay for the debt due to the pre iPO dividend. Not much went to reinvesting in the company for future products.
Stock pretty much at the same price as the close. If it stays there, the premiums are gonna get wiped out. I'm glad I didn't trade AH. Lot of whip saw action. Will need to see a clear pattern tomorrow if I'm goinna trade.
Good call Sybil. It's called karma. That's what you get for parading up and down yesterday when the stock was up.
At this point, it's a toss-up on whether the reaction will be positive or negative to earnings. So why bother risking your hard earned money? Why gamble? There are other potential targets where one can make more educated investments. What are the arguments against investing in this stock? High valuation. The profitability is actually lower than the trailing EPS. The operating expenses have ramped up over the past year. They will need grow revenue by quite a bit to meet the high expectations. They are also still have only one product in a niche market. Absolutely no demonstration of the ability to grow in other areas.
For the first several days after the IPO, it was easily to make money with the stock zooming up on high volume. After that, you could make money by buying on the dips and selling ,,,, if you could time it. Now, it's getting too risky for the in and out.
At some point today, the stock had blown past Fridays close which happened to be the trading day before analyst initializations. I think it would be fair to say any positive effects from the analyst initializations have faded away.
Risk to rewards doesn't look attractive. One might try to "bet" (I.e., gamble) that earnings will be good but we are still a bit away for earnings. Traders will get antsy when stock pauses or sells off a little. This will lead yo a snowball effect when people dump shares to minimize their losses.