They will not see anywhere near the highs when lockup ends. If it's any consolation, at least their CEO was able to dump some shares at a higher price. It seemed like stock was headed for new highs until they had the secondary.
Will we see a decent pop before Dec 23. I think we all know that things will never be the same after this date. It's easy for momentum traders to manipulate the stock when the float is small.
Hasbro stock was taking a beating. Dreamworks was asking for too much. Usually, once they call off the deal, the deal is dead. Otherwise they face a big risk of major lawsuits. Sorry, stock is headed back to low 20s. Dreamworks is damaged goods. No one is gonna want to buy them out.
I don't think you have properly assessed the financials. Inventory is expected to go up as the company ramps up production. Also, as the international sales ramp up, the inventory should go up from cars in transit.
When looking at the financial position, you need to look at the current assets to really see how they are doing. From 3/2014 to 6/2014, current assets actually went up by $300M. From 6/2014 to 9/2014, current assets went down by only $80M. Things don't look too dire.
TSLA is a momentum stock which can for extended periods of time trade at much higher valuations. Just look at NFLX and AMZN. Getting too fixated on the valuation leads to missed opportunities to make money on the upside and losing money by trying to short the stock at the wrong time.
Saw some bursts upward as people are anticipating strong rally upwards. But honestly, we have not seen the face ripping rally upwards. If markets cooperate, we will see a high volume sustained mind boggling rally upwards. Just look at Amazon today. No news but huge rally upwards. This is gonna happen to TSLA soon. Today, I made quite a bit but I felt I had to work a bit for it. Volume really wasn't there. I was a bit nervous we would see a fade. But stock made its way up and was forgiving to any early entries.
You have got to love the markets right now. Near 52 weeks high. Generally positive sentiment. Market can be flat but you can find a stock or two that's making a strong 3+% upwards movement on no news. Santa Claus rallies ineffect. My top stocks I'm watching very closely are TSLA and LNKD. Trust me, I'm not a perma-bull. I really dont see the point of focusing on short positions.
Its all about the story, and the story is still intact. Don't expect significant earnings until Model 3 which wont come until 2-3 years. Until then, as long as they continue to hit their sales milestones ( which they have continued to do so), they will get a free pass.
Each day above 50day means stock is technically getting stronger. Watched for breakout which didn't happen today. I executed flawlessly this morning. Bought tons of weekly call options. Put trailing stop loss order in place. Got stopped out pretty much near the peak. Will watch for breakout again tomorrow. At this point, I think the only things that can bring stock down are 1) general market downturn, 2) analyst downgrade or negative news. If market takes off, stock could also take off. With market in upswing near 52 week highs, market could takeoff in next few days.
Perhaps you are right but I am a short-term trader. I don't buy and hold. I trade purely based on how stocks trend. Right now, it's clearly not trending up. Too much risk for sell the news downside.
Alibaba forecasted $8.6B. So that figure was already baked into expectations. Last years sales was $5.7B. So $8.6B really isn't that much more. I think you need $10B to really surprise people and see significant share appreciation. Investing to some extent is weighing the risks to rewards. On the one hand, there is the sell the news fear. On the other hand, people may value the GMV growth. I have taken the rational unemotional decision to remove my downside exposure to the sell the news risk.
I was thinking they need to hit $10B to avoid sell the news. I monitored the hourly sales closely. Was going strong at 2.5 to 3 RMB per hour. Overnight it slowed to 1.4-1.5 RMB per hour. Might total around $9B but not much more than Alibaba's own forecast.
I dont have the exact numbers but you can see a bar chart with the hourly totals. Google twitter Alicia 23:59:59.
From the bar chart for last year, the highest grossing hours outside of the first two hours was the last three hours. If the same trend holds, I expect to see at least $1.5B in the last 3 hours.
I think the reason for the AH drop was due to the slow GMV overnight. From 3-6am, it was 0.5, 0.3, 0.3 RMB. This should be unexpected as people were sleeping. It has since picked up with hourly totals of 2, 2.1, 2.7
As your user name suggests, that is your wish. Keep dreaming.