will use the recent highs in the stock price to do a secondary offering with their stock. I would think another sale of 20-25 million shares would be in line. This in my opinion should be announced in less than one months time to maximize the recent move higher.
Any thoughts as to what this will do to the share price, especially with the typical delays in biotech phase results? Will the MM's rinse and repeat the share price move?
I am long 10,000 shares at $4.48/shr. and may use any move tomorrow/day after to get out. Am hoping that short interest increased substantially recently and we have good news that will cause a huge spike Tuesday to get them to cover a large portion of that (at least to $7/shr.)............
I own approximately 18,200 shares at an average purchased price of roughly $15.80/share. I suppose only time will tell whether or not I made a good investment. In fact it shouldn't take much time at all as their earnings will be released after hours Monday. Tuesday should be a good indicator of how well received their recent past performance/future guidance will be by the market place.
I do have reservations in terms of whether or not Icahn stepped in too early regarding Apple possibly going in-house with their own voice recognition program. I hope this is incorrect and merely a smoke screen to get the shares at a cheaper price.
Does Carl have to inform the market place if he sold some of his recently acquired NUAN position?
Since he is a small fish in regards to the number of shares he owns in Apple, they are probably not too concerned at this juncture.
Icahn owns/did own approximately 52 million shares of NUAN or roughly 17-18% of the 300 million + float.
Was it him selling recently after having dinner with Apples CEO and finding out that they were building their own voice recognition 'in house', or was it merely a bottoming process and the share price of NUAN only rises from here to the so called double or triple that Icahn claims its share price is worth/will reach???
bought shares in Apple just to get an inside scoop as to whether or not they intended on buying/pushing them into buying Nuance? With Apples shares being lower, he knew his investment would be safe/increase in value while he figured it out.
As for enemies, we all know why Icahn doesn't care for Ackman (as childish as Icahn may be about the whole matter........). Now Soros also has a reason for not liking him. Sometime back, in the recent past, Soros purchased a substantial position in JCP presumably under the advice of Ackman. I believe this was when it was around $14/shr. or so. Now its sitting around $9/shr. Not sure if he sold out yet but if not, he needs to make some quick money back........and what better place to do it AND stick Ackman for the bad advice than in HLF?!
Soros wants some payback for his JCP losses..............
regarding covering his short position in HLF? Is he trying to cover at less of a loss, a marginal gain or still sticking with his original call of a share price of $0?
The most recent short interest report as of 09/14 (always 14 days late) shows that there were approximately 30 million shares still short in HLF. If this holds true for the most recent period then this would read at least to me that he has not covered any of his 20 million short position yet.
With the little +52 page letter that Ackman sent to PwC around August 28thg or so telling them essentially that they could be held liable for any 'rushed through' re-audit of HLF's prior three years, I get the feeling that he is trying to stall for something bigger........like either some issues with calling into question HLF's overall quality controls at its plants (metal in formula from several years ago), to possibly a class action lawsuit by its previous/current distributors (there is a law firm for distributors to go to to possibly join one......), to possibly just buying time for some of his paid shills in the FTC to garner enough damaging evidence (in their mind) to try and cause a +$20 or so dollar drop in the share price so Ackman can get out on everyone else dumping their shares.
I believe his letter cost us, the HLF longs, at least another 30 days of waiting to receive the re-audits from PwC. I believe that time has almost past and we should be receiving some good news very soon on this matter. Within a few short days from receiving that, we should be hearing something regarding a dutch offering/buy back of at least $2.5 billion, as I believe HLF's CEO is quite #$%$ at Ackman and wants to try and make an example of him regarding these short attacks against his company.
Remember, HLF's CEO owns roughly 1 million shares of the stock. He wants a nice payday as well..........
Party on, Wayne!
Just like the previous move, I think we go up roughly 20 pts. to around $80/shr. before some additional consolidation for the next move higher (basically awaiting the re-audit completion). I think this will force HLF, when they do decide to do a buyback to do so at the low $80/shr. price range. They may still try to pull about 15% of the float off the market which would mean they would have to borrow a little more than the much talked about $2 billion number.
Once this float is pulled, along with all the other floats from the various 'long billionaires' (assuming stubborn Ackman hasn't covered yet), this should initiate the long awaited squeeze on Ackman's short shares/everyone elses.
I do believe if he hasn't covered any and no one else has, we should reach somewhere around $100-$110/shr. on very high volume, even if its only intra-day!!!
Any thoughts on the matter?
The ONLY reason we have been waiting so long to get the re-audit results back from PwC was because Ackman sent them a 52 page on August 28th of 'suspect' accounting matters. Now to try and limit any exposure to any potential future issues, they are probably working through them one by one.
I just bought another 350 shares on Friday..............hoping for $100/shr. sooner, rather than later.
P.S.-don't believe all of the clowns on here saying this could go to $300/shr. due to an Ackman squeeze. These are paid for shills that are trying to get the retailers to hold onto their shares while the billionaires dump theres on the impending short covering run up to $100/shr.
By the way, Ackman is probably using the remaining $500 million he got back from unloading his losing JCP position to slowly dump his HLF position (buy to cover). I believe he is using these planted/paid for articles to try and cover at a lower price per share. It has been a while since he claimed that he "hasn't sold a single share."
No, I think what I said in my comments is we’re back and we expect to back
be back in the market now that we have PWC on board and that we
have visibility to the completion of the reaudits.
That’s just normal open market share repurchase program?
Yes, that’s what’s included in our guidance.
And so what do you have left in your share repurchase program, 750 million?
A little more, almost 8, 787.
And could you go back to the board as soon as that would be complete to ask
for more if necessary?
I guess we will deal with that when it’s time. That’ll be a board decision, but
again, we have a strong history, (Sandy). I mean, you know us very well. We
generate a lot of cash. We’re not M&A oriented. That cash, first and
foremost, goes into investing in our future, in our growth, and then it goes
back to our investors and with a heavy overweight towards share repurchase,
been a consistent theme for Herbalife now for six y ears.
OK. I guess just you have 850 million in cash on hand, but
in their repurchase program, 780. So you could fund all of that with what you have
currently without having to go to the debt market?
We have a lot of cash as I said in my opening remarks and we are
underlevered and we’ll do what we think is best for the long term
interest of our shareholders
Question/Answer of 2nd quarter earnings results:
Good morning, everyone. I had a quick question you noted, John, that you
guys felt you were under levered and that seems to be quite the understatement
to say the least. We have about 850 million in cash and 950 million in debt. So you’re at
about .1 debt to EBITDA. Can you just talk about what you think would be a
normal leveraged amount? The group average for consumers is about 1.5
times. So you could take on another billion in debt when your audit’s done, and if
you use that for share repurchases or dividend, you could shrink your float by
15 percent; is this the right way to think about what you guys would use your cash?
Could you just rank order just cash use and then talk about the walk through
the mechanics of are they doing a tender offer, (inaudible) 1 to 2 billion in a
share a massive share repurchase program?
Yes, let’s see if I can hit all those. First, you know, we have awe have a
tremendous history of shared repurchase having repurchased $1.7 billion since
2007. So we know we’re huge fans of it and you know as well.
Regarding, you know, appropriate debt levels, that is a decision for our board.
As you can imagine, I think we have communicated that investment grade
levels, not necessarily investment grade debt, but, you know, the types of
multiples that you’d see in investment grade company is something we would
be comfortable with. That’s something that is consistently been communicated.
As far as the buyback goes and the execution of a buyback, I think that will be
based on circumstance at the time we decide to do buyback, if we do a buyback.
And that timing’s all predicated on when your audited financials
Per the transcript from 2nd quarter earnings call:
Finally, I will address on share buyback program. Over the last couple of
years, our guidance normally included $50 million of share repurchased per
quarter. This indicated our intention to at least execute a portion of our
buyback program on a routine basis even though in many quarters we
significantly exceeded that amount.
Last quarter, we did not include any repurchase
in our guidance for Q2 as a
result of KPMG’s forced resignation.
We wanted to wait until we had new auditors on
board, which would provide us better visibility into the timing of securing re
audited statements. With
(Peter Mussey) on board and our confidence in having re
audited statements by year
end, our guidance provided yesterday included the assumption that
the company will resume its buyback program.
We have included $50 million per quarter in our forecast, but we believe that
our balance sheet is under levered and we have available cash, and therefore,
we may decide based on the discretion provided to us by our board to
repurchase more than the amount included in guidance
As of the 2nd quarter earnings call in the Questions/Answer section I believe, they stated they had roughly $750 million remaining in the coffers from a previous authorized buyback. From recollection, they also stated that they MAY buy back more than $50 million per quarter (hint....hint) and that they were already starting to use the buyback again. I too thought they would have to get the PwC re-audits back but apparently that was not an issue as of the time of the 2nd quarter earnings meeting.
Never take anybodies word for granted on these message boards..........go to the HLF website and listen to the 2nd quarter results/question and answer for yourself, under 'Investor Relations'.
Its good stuff.........
HLF may show fewer distributors (or whatever the new terminology is now) joining the ranks this current quarter. Last quarter was the first time we saw this, more than likely due to Ackman's continued public accusations/attacks on the company. I therefore believe that Icahn and all of the smart money would try and push for a short squeeze prior to the 3rd quarters results with a possible dutch auction/going private once the share price comes back down (to around $80/shr.).
Any constructive criticism regarding this matter.....................?
for PwC to return the three years of re-audits with their stamp of approval???? Will Icahn/HLF then start talking about going private or first try to jump start a short covering in the shares and then do a going private when the shares come back down????????????????
You do realize the stock markets are closed today in the U.S., right? Apparently the overseas markets did quite well so we should have some catch up on Tuesday.
Regarding all the things you are saying about HLF, I hope you are right that we are on the cusp of another solid run up. It appears that the last four weeks or so was accumulation of shares but it is disheartening to see the share price drop most of last week on low volume and neither the company with its $700 million buyback in place or the other long hedgies did anything about it. Trying to buy some shares cheaper I guess.
We shall see................................
was nothing more than Icahn/Soros/other long institutional investors letting the share price drift lower to allow institutional shorts to add to their various positions (retailers can't purchase any shares.......) to help fuel a larger run up when the PwC news comes back.
The volume is quite low and this would lead me to believe only the weak retail hands left the party this week. Next Tuesday or no later than Wednesday, I hope to see something regarding the PwC re-audits come back CLEAN and hopefully something on the SEC Soros investigation (a conclusion in our favor of course).
With all of these minor attempts by Ackman to stir the proverbial pot, it wreaks of desperation and anything to paint the tape down.......even for a just a day to make his loss on HLF smaller.
As always, time will tell who is correct regarding this trade.
What angers me the most is that I was looking at getting into TVIX (mimics VIX) again temporarily when it hit its recent low..........around $1.45/shr. Now its back above $1.96, and in a very short time. I am stuck with HLF until it does a substantial move up at which time I will gladly sell another my shares.....................
I am still hoping that he uses it to cover his short position 'in full'. I am tired of the drama with this stock. If he did it sooner rather than later, it may only run up to $80/shr. or so.
While he did spend alot of time on HLF still being a good short prospect in his recent investor letter, he may have merely done so to try and push it down before covering and getting out (more or less a bluff, materially speaking....).
So what do you think happened today.........the difference in payout of the dividend plus the sell off of the general marketplace (it was on low volume.....)??? I thought we had consolidated long enough and along comes the issues with Syria, the worry of losing the easy money with QE leaving soon and now Ackman has some more pocket change to push HLF down further (around $504 million dollars from selling his entire stake to Citigroup).
Any thoughts on the matter?