This whole run has been based on the prescriptions. What happens when Obamacare fails? And it will. The whole country is going broke paying for the healthcare of those that either don't work or won't work. We've done nothing to lower the cost of healthcare. It is still going up. Yet wages and productivity are not. Just think, what's going to happen when 2 to 5 million more illegals instantly become welfare cases? You can't pay for healthcare cutting lawns.
With all the positive sentiment here why is it that IF this is such a good investment that the div has not grown? And can you imagine if they ever cut the div by even one cent what the price of the stock would do?
Retail is going to do well with gas at low prices. And let's face it, this company took their 'eye off the ball' in the last couple years. The table is set here for a steady move up over the next year. And even if you pick it up at 15 tomorrow you'll see a 25% return on your money over the next year. What's not to like? Also watch RAD as it zooms the next 12 months. They've finally turned things around and will most probably be bought out now that they are getting their act together.
So many are driven by hype and fear. This is going to pass just like always. It might take a year or so, but it'll work itself out. And when it does--------- UP SHE GOES.
I think you're seeing money coming out of those stocks from fear selling AND people looking for bargain priced stocks to pick up. A div paying oil related stock that was paying 7 to 8% before the fall and dropping in price by 40% or more sure looks tempting. Especially if the div is secure.
Ya, so many aren't willing to wait it out. Most of what you find on these message boards are gamblers, not investors. I lived through the oil embargo of 1973. We all thought we were doomed then to sit in long lines at gas stations on odd or even license plate days for a fill up or just our alotted 10 gallons. We saw how HCLP traded as the oil fields started using so much sand for production. The same people who traded this down will be ( when this turns) driving the price up by 4 and 5 bucks a day. Over the 100 dollar mark. Keep in mind that sand trains have no restrictions on them like an oil train. And we now have the knowledge that our economy can run with 100 a barrel oil.
All comes down to X-mas and the consumer for the most part. The rest will be how they hold down the cost of running the business and left over inventory. Take note of pricing before and after the holidays. If lower afterwards you'll have your answer long before the price drops on the stock.
Threeeputtttt, Look at it this way. You're in a boat(oil sector)----the boat springs a leak, ( drop in price)-----of course people panic and jump off. Thing is you've got in place patching materials ( long contracts for sand). Now, you won't know for another 6 months just what we've got here. Or at least a real knowledge of where we're headed. So yes, we could easily slide back down. But I'm going to side on reality and not the emotional craziness of people looking for a quick buck.
'Capitulation'? I think we've already seen it. Economies are based on energy. Especially oil. With the continual war being waged on coal oil just becomes that more important. Name me one time in history when oil fell and stayed down?
Real company with a real future. Honestly, how many think oil will stay below 80 bucks for more than a year? An easy double within two years. What more can you ask for?
Mark, the reality of all this lays at what the economy is doing. Scare stories of cheaper oil are no more to be given serious consideration under 80 bucks imo. Remember that for years we were told oil was going to 150 or higher? High oil prices are now a part of the equation in the world market. I believe way too many governments and big companies NEED oil to sell high as part of the control mechanism. I also think oil should be viewed as the new gold or silver standard for the dollar as the two are so closely tied to one another. The correlation of all that Fed dollar printing had to express itself in some manner. A lower oil price is an expression of a air being let out of the inflation baloon.
Great post, doesn't seem to be doing anything for the share price though.
Just crazy how short sighted people are. They're so focused on a temporary drop in oil price. It is the LOWEST its been in four years. Not four months.