Mark, keep in mind that 1987 was before 2008. it's all changed now. Fundamentals were still a part of the game in 1987. Not so much now, right? Media hype drives the markets, no? I mean, what really happened today? The trading was all value driven, not fundamental. I saw movement in the charts of certain things that gave away that some KNEW what the vote was going to be on brexit. Guesses? I think not. Markets are moved too easily by hype these days. Look at the day to day explanations for movements. HYPE, for the most part. Control the media and you control the people. Add to that the control of monetary policy and you can't lose. That is, if you're creating the movements.
News stories out today about the billions or trillions lost today. Many here might not be able to see things in a larger frame. As reported the 'established' world lost tons of money today. Put things into a perspective. When the forces of the continental armies defeated England here in the U.S. didn't the 'established' world lose billions? See, instead of looking at this as a negative I really view it as a positive. Think of our world (countries) like planets within a solar system. Would it make sense to somehow combine all the different planets as one? Common ground? Yes. But to muddle every planet as one? Each culture, each creative genesis morphed into one? To a point of somehow not being able to discern one from another? Where is the trade in that? Where is the ability to produce a uniqueness and create a trade between others in that? We here in the U.S. were established as states within a federal government. It allowed the states a certain power to exercise a certain amount of power over themselves while still being governed by a federal government. Now, if the world wishes to create a similar circumstance whereby countries have a similar ability then maybe a world government could occur. But until the major powers can come to an agreement as to allow freedoms to be exercised to their maximum within each country, we'll be in turmoil.
The scene in the Wizard of OZ? " Don't pay any attention to that man behind the curtain"! I mean, we don't move on fundamentals much anymore. It's more the media hype and supposed 'value' therein. What REALLY happened today? Britain didn't sink into the ocean. The ability of Britain to produce and trade really didn't disappear, did it? I think anymore what occurs are the 'manipulators' at the top. They produce some excitement or doom and gloom and then profit from it. They DO own the media. And between all of what we think/know to be real to us we have to navigate the waters they raise or lower. And then, when one of us 'revolts', (Brexit) they punish the offender, and some others for good measure.
I do hope none of you got rocked today. Unless something adds onto this, I'd expect a retracement up come early next week. Wasn't it weird that the terror attack in Paris had more impact on our stock market than Orlando?
Ya, about 5 months ago I was thinking 14300 was about right. Thing is, you and I trade using our knowledge of our entire experience. Whereas, this market today has been totally different sine the machines were put in place. When bad things occur they just go in and adjust the machines. Hence the flat market for the most part. Don't get me wrong, if you adjust yourself to the machine and alga trading you can make a lot of money. It's just that we have to understand now that old math doesn't work anymore. At least until the whole thing DOES come crashing down someday. Remember that one day, what? Like a couple years back when we had a machine malfunction and they just shut the market off? And then returned some trades that occurred? Why shut it down when the machines start trading badly? They're not going to shut it down if people cause a problem. They'll just keep your money.
Crash happened in 2008. Since then it's all alga rhythms and machines. Another crash is out of the question. IMO, what happened today is really a non event. I mean, look at most of the stocks you hold. Are they 'crashing'? Probably not. And since we know that most of what occurs now in the markets is contrived, today is just another opportunity to see it go back up squeezing more cash out of those that trade in fear.
Pick up some XIV in here over the next couple days. Might get it extremely cheap (sub 20) on Monday.
SLV, HL etc.
Div, the REAL guess is what's going to happen on Monday. I'd be surprised to see a continuation of like 200 more points. Could be some panic selling on the open as the weekend papers report today's action. But I'd fully expect some kind of bounce up late Monday or Tues. This is opposite almost of what I thought would happen if the vote was to stay.
Mark, I was one who thought the powers that be would scare the brits into staying. I doubt seriously this lasts for long unless one of the other countries like Spain or Italy etc. now openly talks of leaving also. I do believe that if one more leaves that the whole thing will unravel. At which point it'll give the media multiple opportunities to create mini crashes along the way. I for one salute the Brits for their bravery to depend more upon themselves for their lives.
carl, in the world of the U.S. this is a non event. Totally a three ring circus event. Whether they 'stay' or not will have almost zero effect on the U.S in reality. But, we haven't been in reality in years. I fully expect a tremendous rally Friday. Check out after hours action. People falling all over each other to get in on the action. Euphoria has been reached. Friday is VXX buying day imo. Just compare the prices reached on VXX and XIV on the last drop of the VXX. VXX is clearly oversold as it took a price on the XIV of 34 to have the VXX go sub 13. Opening bell should see us 200 pts higher. Then..................................................by Tuesday of next week I expect a pretty good drop to occur.
stagg, didn't check out all your percentages, but I come up with a 4%, not a 23% for NYMT. Also, you should be asking yourself if this all seems normal. I mean, do you usually profit by 23% or more in ANY given year? You might want to do some history on a yearly basis of your returns and see if you're within those parameters. Using your numbers to date I come up with about 23%. Normal for you? If so we all should just follow you.
Brexit is non binding anyway. So, those in power will simply do whatever they want and the peoples voice be damned. No different than the electoral college here. We vote one way, those in power continue to do what they want. Here in Ca. if the voters step out of line and vote in something the elite don't want, they just get some federal judge to overturn or stay it into oblivion. Hillary will probably win. Our economy will have the benefit of the central bankers rewarding us with money for a time. As if we actually did something right. But then, after 6 months to a year it'll all fall apart. or until some 'crisis' squashes it. IMO, our country is being sold out to the banks. Once the currency is gone and we all have to use electron transactions to complete any sale we're done as having any autonomy.