Why is it going to $18?
Doesn't matter if they lost $500 million, $900 million?
35% is a huge number!!!! Doubt JCP will increase SSS by 35%.
How long will it take them to return to 3Q 2011? Can they?
If you owned a mutual fund that lost 26% THEN gained 1% the next year, would you be happy?
JCP Same Store Sales Need to Increase 35% to Return to 3Q Numbers from 2011.
JCP SSS dropped 26% in 3 Q 2012 from 2011 3Q.
JCP 3Q sales declined 26% in 2012.
Heard JCp said SSS will improve either this Q or will be positive.
If JCP SSS improve 1%, over 2012 3 Q, which was DOWN 26%, is that good?
Did JCP say roughly HOW MUCH SSS will improve?
Under RJ, our JCp closed a few sales registers.
The men's department for example used to have an associate or two to help and ring up purchases.
Under RJ the help and sales desk were removed.
Now you have to take your purchase to another area.
The men's area is a long section. I'd estimate it is about 40 yards by 25 yards.
Since I haven't seen any help in that area, it reminded me of Wal Mart.
But a long will say, "they went to one store and talked to one associate. While the lines were long, the associate ignored waiting customers and gave them the run down on all the metrics."
I also don't soil my underwear as much as you probably do.
After all, you are long JCP.
You must have soiled a lot over the last 6 weeks on the drop from $17 to $7.
From MF, Sept 26, 2013:
If you're a CEO, you know you're in trouble when investment bankers start advising clients to bet on your company going bankrupt. That's essentially what Goldman Sachs credit analysts did on Wednesday by recommending that clients buy J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ) credit default swaps.
Amazon is doing so well WITHOUT any B&M stores. It would be ridiculous for them to have a retail store. Amazon sells everything.
What are they going to have in the store? The top 10,000 sellers at their web site?
IMO JCP has been doing a lot of promotional sales this quarter.
Are they taking sales from their next quarter?
After all, if I buy 10 shirts this Q, I don't think I will need more next quarter.
" Problems = 30% of inventory was not priced"
Store employee told you this? LOL!!!
JCP was running a sale that if I remember correctly ended at 1 pm on Sat.
No doubt that have or will have other 'sales' running.
JCP announced Sept sales down 4% from comparable 2012 Sept sales.
That is not up. How were Sept 2012 sales compared to August 2012?
YOY compares are very easy IMO. If they can't beat those, and they didn't in Sept then it is very serious.
I don' think I am waiting for anything.
However to pursue you line of reasoning, if someone wants to get long and waits until sales have flattened of finally start to improve then they will be "way too late"?
So JCP then will rocket from $7 to $14 and stop? that will be it? Anyone will be "way too late" because stock price will not improve after that? Party will be over?
IMO there is a very real possibility that JCP can drop sub $2, survive going out of business, but selling off some assets and reorganizing.
Here are rough numbers from yahoo.
Macy's has about $4.5 billion net debt and $17 billion market cap.
JCP has $4 billion net debt and $1.5 billion market cap.
Macy's net debt is 1/4 of market cap.
JCP's net debt is 2.6 times market cap.
When was Macy's last losing money quarter?
How many of last 10 quarters has JCp lost money?
I see it differently. If I see 30 vendors at boardwalk all selling similar T-shirts, I am not in a hurry to buy from one vendor over another.
I always think that a struggling company like JCP should cut the under performing units. However, maybe this would require cashflow for one-time charges to close the units. A catch 22.
Also still a catch-22 to sell anything they have loans against. They would have to get agreement from lenders or the lines of credit and use proceeds to directly reduce their credit facilities or loans.
I don't know the break down of every store but if a store hasn't made money in 5-10 years, dump it unless closing costs will exceed benefits.