But a long will say, "they went to one store and talked to one associate. While the lines were long, the associate ignored waiting customers and gave them the run down on all the metrics."
I also don't soil my underwear as much as you probably do.
After all, you are long JCP.
You must have soiled a lot over the last 6 weeks on the drop from $17 to $7.
From MF, Sept 26, 2013:
If you're a CEO, you know you're in trouble when investment bankers start advising clients to bet on your company going bankrupt. That's essentially what Goldman Sachs credit analysts did on Wednesday by recommending that clients buy J.C. Penney (NYSE: JCP ) credit default swaps.
Amazon is doing so well WITHOUT any B&M stores. It would be ridiculous for them to have a retail store. Amazon sells everything.
What are they going to have in the store? The top 10,000 sellers at their web site?
IMO JCP has been doing a lot of promotional sales this quarter.
Are they taking sales from their next quarter?
After all, if I buy 10 shirts this Q, I don't think I will need more next quarter.
" Problems = 30% of inventory was not priced"
Store employee told you this? LOL!!!
JCP was running a sale that if I remember correctly ended at 1 pm on Sat.
No doubt that have or will have other 'sales' running.
JCP announced Sept sales down 4% from comparable 2012 Sept sales.
That is not up. How were Sept 2012 sales compared to August 2012?
YOY compares are very easy IMO. If they can't beat those, and they didn't in Sept then it is very serious.
I don' think I am waiting for anything.
However to pursue you line of reasoning, if someone wants to get long and waits until sales have flattened of finally start to improve then they will be "way too late"?
So JCP then will rocket from $7 to $14 and stop? that will be it? Anyone will be "way too late" because stock price will not improve after that? Party will be over?
IMO there is a very real possibility that JCP can drop sub $2, survive going out of business, but selling off some assets and reorganizing.
Here are rough numbers from yahoo.
Macy's has about $4.5 billion net debt and $17 billion market cap.
JCP has $4 billion net debt and $1.5 billion market cap.
Macy's net debt is 1/4 of market cap.
JCP's net debt is 2.6 times market cap.
When was Macy's last losing money quarter?
How many of last 10 quarters has JCp lost money?
I see it differently. If I see 30 vendors at boardwalk all selling similar T-shirts, I am not in a hurry to buy from one vendor over another.
I always think that a struggling company like JCP should cut the under performing units. However, maybe this would require cashflow for one-time charges to close the units. A catch 22.
Also still a catch-22 to sell anything they have loans against. They would have to get agreement from lenders or the lines of credit and use proceeds to directly reduce their credit facilities or loans.
I don't know the break down of every store but if a store hasn't made money in 5-10 years, dump it unless closing costs will exceed benefits.
I think you have failed in trying to make a point. At least you tried. Longs usually just say JCP going up!!!!!!
So if a store is advertising then by your logic it means they are losing business?
I have seen in my estimation, 3 JCp commercials to every 1 Macy's commercial.
I have also seen non-stop JCP 'sales; events promoted through print.
When I say non-stop print promotions by JCP, I am not exaggerating. Every week there is a sale there. After one ended I believe that had an in store sale supposedly ending at 1pm on 10/26 but online ending 10/30.
They have so many sales I can't keep track of them all.
I expect there to be another sale announced after the last one though maybe JCP is putting on an extra push to meet quarter end numbers.
I make no claim on the effectiveness of JCP's sales. Only they know or now.
Remember JCP's sales were down 4% in Sept from 2012 Sept numbers. I believe it was an easy compare.
So what does it mean if JCP is flat or slightly beats in Oct 2013 compared to an easy compare with numbers in Oct 2012(that were down from OCt 2011)?
"All theses stores sell the same stuff minus private label."
There you go making my point. I consider many clothing retailers just like boardwalk vendors selling the same T-shirts.
So why the urgency to buy at JCP when there are over 200 national clothing retailers? There are many many alternatives.
It is not like Best buy situation AT ALL. Best buy was cash flow positive every quarter during stock price drop except for one time items.
Best buy is about the last national electronics retailer. It doesn't compete with 200 other national electronics B&M stores.
Only silence when I ask the question of how much stock insiders purchased over last year.
Guess the silent period lasts more than a year for JCP.
ty i am smart.
JCP already has a lien against its RE. It is tough to sell something that you have loans against. Creditors don't like that.
Why did SLV drop from $20+ in 2008 to sub $10 in 2009?
Why would the next 20-40% stock market correction be any different?
People that sold stocks in 2008-2009 also had to put their money somewhere but Pm still dropped; silver much more than gold.