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TASER International Inc. Message Board

jlbluen 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2014 11:20 PM Member since: Oct 21, 2003
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  • Reply to

    should get $4.50-$4.70 today or tomorrow

    by manmillion37 Jun 30, 2014 10:44 AM
    jlbluen jlbluen Jul 2, 2014 11:20 PM Flag

    With the portfolio of renewable power generation plants and nat gas plants this co is very well positioned for sale. There is no going back to cheap power.. scrubbers for coal plants, nuclear hazard prep and oversight etc.. costly. AT is where it needs to be for a sale.. and there will be buyers. If Birkshire just bought into SU, a tar sands co at 33 and it is now 43.. there is much to good energy plays.

    There is time pressure on a buyer as well, as the news for the 2nd qtr will be favorable cause it will not include refi costs and cold weather related losses, and will show strong improvement in bottom line. A buyer will want to announce BEFORE that hits in late July/mid Aug time frame. Why ask stockholders after the qtr news premium to buy their stocks? And if the news is good all the better as their announcement came prior. If the qtr is not as hot as anticipated, then they get a better willing tender. This just cannot wait a long time to happen. If it does not happen prior to the next qtr report.. I don't think it will, and then we should float on what that qtr report states.... in my opinion will be favorable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    should get $4.50-$4.70 today or tomorrow

    by manmillion37 Jun 30, 2014 10:44 AM
    jlbluen jlbluen Jul 1, 2014 1:59 AM Flag

    There are 2 elements driving up the stock price, 1.. the obvious potential purchase/JV of assets, and 2... the potential improved company performance through the 2nd qtr.
    With a div of .40/yr and some savings in the company to repay debt there is some value created. There has been a sense in the stock of questionable management and the risk of loosing the div. That fear and sense seems to have abated.

    The question now is how far and how fast should we expect in the stock rise? Is the div sustainable? Yes with a good 2nd qtr. They did raise some cash just to be sure though. Too much dilution and the faith in mngmt will be lost again .. not to be recovered soon.

    The other question is how long we need to wait to know about potential acquisition of all/part assets? And is that affecting the present stock price? The refi took about a month to work out.. and any sale will take about the same/similar/longer. So that may be resolved in a couple of weeks to a month+. Will we become over bought... you bet ... and there will be some corrections, albeit short and back filled quickly. Those are probably the best opportunities here for short term traders, but being a holder... the general trend will be up till some closure news happens.. one way or another. With world turmoil and energy prices high.. the AT nat gas portfolio and renewable energy sources should command a premium.. so.. a stock price of $5-7 is not unreasonable for the sale of the whole company, but that may not be what happens... They could sell parts off, keep the cash, and do other things.. who knows? High 4s to low 5s is my read of a peak in stock price.

    Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    AFTA HR. DAWN!!!

    by waldo_omega Jun 30, 2014 6:37 PM
    jlbluen jlbluen Jun 30, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Down a Whopping 1 Cent:
    http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/at/after-hours

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    .37 dividend.....

    by waldo_omega Jun 27, 2014 1:43 PM
    jlbluen jlbluen Jun 27, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    The notes on the power plant assets are "A" rated. There is a lot of debt, but that is how the power industry rolls. This stock is not given enough credit for the operations as performing. Since last qtr 10Q reported the refi costs with debilitating severe weather, we're all optimistic on the next qtr 10Q without those costs and with milder weather.. should knock the socks off past performance.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • With a better 2nd Qtr report and world interest in clean power .... It is going to be very interesting to watch the result of the announced effort to sell this company. GS and company will find takers as these are A rated assets. If a buyer is to be found then it would be in their interest to make binding offers prior to release of 2nd qtr results, as I believe good news will cause a continued upward drift in the stock price. The current up/down cycle is driven by the belief that there may be a quiet entrance of a potential buyer of the company, and consequent runs in the stock. There will be more volatility here, and the net will be an upward drift. JMHO.

    The only position I'd not like to have is short, cause this stock has a lightening fuze and will fly at the hint of M&A activity.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Dividend announcement

    by mymailtoyou45 Jun 5, 2014 1:40 PM
    jlbluen jlbluen Jun 8, 2014 4:22 AM Flag

    Usually made at middle of the month for the end of the following month. See historical publications.

  • The rest is opinion or old news. Don't they have anything new? As we get to Aug 2nd qtr reports the news will be strong. On the sale of company front.... I wonder how the Street would spin a significantly higher sale price, cause that is all there could be here.

    I'd certainly not like to be short this stock if any announcement of sale intent happens.

  • jlbluen by jlbluen May 25, 2014 10:56 AM Flag

    Slight rise to $3.5 over the next qtr with continued div. Then the results of 2nd Qtr .. 1st Wk Aug .. if steady and improving.. ie good company execution.. then we should be good to go above $4.00. Thoughts?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Steady Eddie?

    by tipster999111 May 12, 2014 6:30 PM
    jlbluen jlbluen May 13, 2014 9:37 AM Flag

    Report sort of as expected. Want to hear about the Div. Next will be conf call. But, real future of company is shown between now and next qtr report.

  • Getting a bit later than last yr.. whats up?

  • jlbluen jlbluen May 6, 2014 8:56 AM Flag

    As the refinancing has shown ... that costs may be brought down with lower interest rates on much of the debt of AT .. so a more financially strong entity could refi more of the Palmer debt, and even repay the preferred stock. More profit. With a 4-5% interest on 300M that would be a savings of 20M/yr. The current div rate shows that and if the buyer took out the common at say $4 they would make well over 10% on their investment. Remember .. a significant portion of the cash flow is dedicated to principle repayment, that is profit too, so that could be changed by a buyout. Easy pickings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jlbluen jlbluen May 6, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    As the refinancing has shown ... that costs may be brought down with lower interest rates on much of the debt of AT .. so a more financially strong entity could refi more of the Palmer debt, and even repay the preferred stock. More profit. With a 4-5% interest on 300M that would be a savings of 20M/yr. The current div rate shows that and if the buyer took out the common at say $4 they would make well over 10% on their investment. Remember .. a significant portion of the cash flow is dedicated to principle repayment, that is profit too, so that could be changed by a buyout. Easy pickings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • jlbluen jlbluen May 6, 2014 8:52 AM Flag

    As the refinancing has shown ... that costs may be brought down with lower interest rates on much of the debt of AT .. so a more financially strong entity could refi more of the Palmer debt, and even repay the preferred stock. More profit. With a 4-5% interest on 300M that would be a savings of 20M/yr. The current div rate shows that and if the buyer took out the common at say $4 they would make well over 10% on their investment. Remember .. a significant portion of the cash flow is dedicated to principle repayment, that is profit too, so that could be changed by a buyout. Easy pickings.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    RE: Buyout value for AT or SALE price

    by nick_foles123 May 2, 2014 8:37 PM
    jlbluen jlbluen May 2, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    Book value is over $5.00 and they now have started paying off principle, so the price will go higher.
    Sure would not like to be holding shorts now.

  • From P19 of year end presentation(see the AT web site) they had a guidance of 0-25M free cash flow. They have paid out $10M of that already! They also have made the optional debt restructuring of Curtis Palmer 9% note, of 140M. These should show a significant improvement in balance sheet income, as interest on 150M goes from 9% to 4.75%, or a savings of 6M There must be more income from a strong winter demand season. There will be one time prepayment costs already factored into the yearly guidance, but the strength to prepay the 9% notes, and make the div payment indicates already upper movement in the free cash flow, on the upper bounds of guidance.

TASR
11.23-0.30(-2.60%)Jul 23 4:00 PMEDT

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