Calculated Risk is reporting the negotiating teams of the US Senate/House coming together on a reasonable deal to avert government stoppages and keep the US economy rolling well. Ending QE3 will be on the table and most probably will come in Jan, JMHO. Power demand should be stable and strong.
With the new US budget negotiations going well and a budget deal in the works... it looks like 2014 will be a nice year economically. Defense up a bit and most other items stable. Power demand will be stable good.
Based on what do you say this? The present div is hedged at 77% with existing cash, with cash flow several times that of the div. Looks like a short is getting desperate. I would not want to be in your shoes.
I agree. This is a nice time to buy in as the current div and bond payments are hedged by the company at 77% to 2015, and there is a 40% increase in power generation declared. So while the disgust of the earlier div cut to 1/3 is driving the yr end stock price down, the growth in earnings is to come with increase in power gen ability.
Where do you get this from? If you read the q3 10k it says:
We have executed this strategy utilizing cash flows from our projects that generate Canadian dollars and by entering into forward contracts to purchase Canadian dollars at a fixed rate to hedge an average of approximately 71% of any dividend and expected long-term debt and convertible debenture interest payments through 2015. Changes in the fair value of the forward contracts partially offset foreign exchange gain or losses on the U.S. dollar equivalent of our Canadian dollar obligations.
They also have increased their cash positions to 60 to 170 M in unrestricted cash. With a 48M common share holder present level dividend liability, a .29 payout ration of earnings, a low demand on senior instrument payouts (150M in 2015 and 218M in 2017), and now 49 - 50 % more producing assets than last yr. This stock is fairly well positioned for a reasonable future.
A wild card is the season-ability of their income, with a projected Q4 2013 loss of .24. That will be a real hit when it is declared. I just wonder if that will affect the div, which I don't think will, given that the history of the stock is to smooth out the variations for the stockholder div.
I bought today and am an optimist.
A lot of bearish articles out now rehashing old news and beating it like something has changed. In rereading the 3q 10q, they reiterate that they support the current div through the next yr, and at a payout ration of .29 there is lots of retained earnings for later debt repayment. The lawsuits are the wet dreams of attorneys after the div drop, and don't know the outcome there, but the last couple of yrs has shown a significant interest by mngmt in cleaning house, getting rid of non/poor performing assets, increasing dramatically power generation capacity, and realizing impairments where due.
Going forward this stock action is a capitulation and hopefully after some tranquility at this level, a real base in price.
Div announced this yr 4 Jan with xdiv Jan 10th, and payment Feb 8th, expect similar, dates. I would expect similar dividend amounts and programs as well. Next yr, I suspect after meeting the stress tests, which they should pass handily, there may be dividend changes, perhaps cash only but in a lesser amt, especially as the free income grows.
Last yr's div was announced on 12/18, (3 weeks from tomorrow) and we should see something similar this yr. With interest rates stable over the period there should be a reasonable expectation of consistent and improving results. We shall see.
Just bought 8k at $3.67. Will get div and keep the turbines running. Oil and gas are low and profit will be up.
Since the growth of this company's income is not in online software services, and is in personnel driven services their growth projections are unrealistic and cannot be achieved. This is not an automated software stock like Facebook, etc. See the article by fund manager Akram's Razor, Seeking Alpha article 1714292.
Taser should sell these police depts the video capture camera system to put the cop on notice that all actions will be recorded and used as evidence. Since Taser is the most widely accepted seller of this equipment and has the best market recognition with police depts they will profit handsomely from this news. If the reported abuse drops 90% as noted in police dept findings with the camera systems, this should be used as a marketing opportunity for Taser.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
It is my understanding that they have new orders coming in from other cities for the video capture. With a 90% reduction in brutality claims, this is a great money save for cities.
Thanks Jay. It went down and we were scared, but kept buying. Now that the boat is loaded... let's see the result of good earnings and less provisions for defaults.
What happened? Why the sharp drop off? The AGNC CEO was reported to have sold some of his shares .. so what? NLY is supposed to do fairly well with gradual increasing of interest rates. The senate will not radically change the MBS liabilities of fanny/freddie..or am I mistaken?
With the div payment announced the stock is quite attractive, given the followthrough of the company, doing as promised with the E.60/yr div. The shorts got to cover now and they are running a good chase. Go baby go.
Looks like machine action