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Tucows Inc. Message Board

jlbsierra 7 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 17, 2014 2:33 PM Member since: Mar 3, 1998
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  • Reply to

    Once a loser, always a loser

    by dx25701 Apr 3, 2014 12:11 AM
    jlbsierra jlbsierra Apr 17, 2014 2:33 PM Flag

    Obviously you have no idea what Tucows is or does. Tucows is approaching a 52 week high.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Good grief. Take profits if you can. This thing will come back down.

    Sentiment: Sell

  • Qtr. was solid. W/current guidance, 103-110k subcribers by end of Q4 '14. Almost half of Ting's new adds have signed up in last 2 Qtrs. Company is exploring ways to bump growth # w/marketing spends. Employing movie theater ads, billboards and tv spots in test market(s) to see if there is correlating bump. Early results show less traction than more stealthy techniques already employed w/Ting (& Hover). Sprint upgrade in 2nd half of the year could provide significant bump to growth rate. If roll-out happens on time, will shift my model.

    More discussion around churn rate. Higher than Big 4 but lower than other MVNOs. I'm using a churn rate of slightly higher than 3% in my est. for now. Management focused on understanding what creates churn.

    Few details provided on Hover. This channel fuels Ting. 20% YOY growth w/increasing margins + value add domain offerings like Google Apps. Would've liked to hear more about efforts here. Can Ting benefit from Hovers customer base w/cross-selling? Other MVNOs use brand as a differentiator. Virgin being the primary example. Can Hover stimulate Ting growth? Not sure.

    Few analysts asking questions on the call. No question about Starbucks promo. No question about data rate drop. Hoping shift to Nasdaq brings more coverage in '14. Company needs longer Q&A on these calls. In the future, I hope begin getting more visibility by 'retail' channel.

    Updated Subscriber #s - Ting New Accounts

    Q2 '12: 2000 New Accounts
    Q3 '12: 3000 New Accounts
    Q4 '12: 5,000 New Accounts

    Q1 '13: 6,300 New Accounts, 11,000 new devices
    Q2 '13: 9,000 New Accounts, 16,000 new devices
    Q3 '13: 11,000 New Accounts, 16,000 new devices
    Q4 '13: 12,000 New Accounts, 18,000 new devices - Acq. cost of $108.33/per (est.)

    End of Q4 '13: 48,000 Total Customer Count - 74,000 Total # of Devices (passed 50k in Jan.)

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Subscriber Predictions for Q4?

    by jlbsierra Feb 7, 2014 11:44 AM
    jlbsierra jlbsierra Feb 11, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    Is their main advantage price?

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Subscriber Predictions for Q4?

    by jlbsierra Feb 7, 2014 11:44 AM
    jlbsierra jlbsierra Feb 11, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    There could be sell on news but I'm L-T so it doesn't matter. I like the management team.

    I look at the data rate cuts as a positive. I'm guessing this cost in particular, was a reason for potential customers to shy away from a switch. TCX is making it easier to attract new customers.

    This will be a helpful call. I believe CEO has stated previously, this will be 1st Qtr. of positive cash-flow from Ting operations. Can anyone else confirm this?

    I agree on the margin front. I think we all want more insight into margins.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    New Subscriber Predictions for Q4?

    by jlbsierra Feb 7, 2014 11:44 AM
    jlbsierra jlbsierra Feb 11, 2014 11:42 AM Flag

    Q4 '12: 5,000 New Accounts - I don't think they announced # of devices until start of Q1 '14.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • I'll stay conservative and guess 13-14k new subs for Q4, 21-22k new devices. Would be great to hit 50k subscribers #. 'll be looking for $14.25 - $15.00 as next trading range. May be a short stop. If they impress, could easily hit $18.00. We'll see. 280% subscriber growth in the Qtr. would keep the train moving.

    Sentiment: Buy

TCX
15.24+0.06(+0.40%)Apr 22 4:00 PMEDT

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