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Jarden Corp. Message Board

jlivingstone2000 1799 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 11:05 AM Member since: Feb 1, 2005
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  • Reply to

    I'm a gold bug....but I feel I'm wrong

    by another_brick_wall Jan 29, 2015 10:59 AM
    jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 11:05 AM Flag

    Buying opportunity in Silver today. Load up bro. Going to $50-$100 within 2 years max.

  • Reply to

    Cramer Ultra Bearish on Wells Fargo

    by jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 10:21 AM
    jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 10:50 AM Flag

    Here's more from Real Money on WFC forthcoming collapse:

    The rate of growth in both sales and prices for new and existing homes is decelerating, similar to the situation that occurred during the early part of the last housing crisis.

    The most important issues to note are that this is happening even as mortgage rates have fallen dramatically over the past year and the growth in the sale of existing homes is approaching 0%.

    Existing home sales are about 80% of the home purchase market and traditionally represent a commensurate percentage in dollar volume of purchase money mortgage originations.

    Even as housing activity continues to slow, investors appear to be pricing Wells Fargo's stock on the assumption that declining mortgage rates will allow for refinance activity to more than offset the decline in purchase activity.

    The problem with that, however, is that mortgage rates, even though they've come down from the highs set in 2013, are still about .5% on a 30-year fixed conventional conforming basis, above what they were in early 2013.

    Because of that, the majority of the potential refinance market available is limited to those having purchased homes between September 2013 and September 2014, which means the recent surge in refinancing requests will be very limited.

    In order for refinance activity to increase substantially, the 30-year fixed mortgage rates would need to get to around 3%, which is about .25% below the record lows of early 2013.

    That would imply a 10-year Treasury yield falling to sustained record lows of below 1.5%.

    Although that's possible, between the current yield/rate environment and that occurring, the mortgage business available to Wells Fargo, for both purchases and refinances, is much more limited than investors are pricing the stock for currently.

    It is probable that investors will awaken to this reality soon, as they have for the homebuilders stocks, and that Wells Fargo's stock will reflect a performance closer to that of the other three money centers soon, rather than the other three correcting upward to meet the performance of Wells.

  • Reply to

    Cramer Ultra Bearish on Wells Fargo

    by jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 10:21 AM
    jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Look at a chart then. The goose is cooked for financials and WFC in particular.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 10:21 AM Flag

    I will be providing a review of the fourth-quarter 2014 bank call reports in a few weeks, but in the meantime there is a situation developing among the top four U.S.-based money centers.

    The year-to-date performance of their stocks has been dismal, much of which can be attributed to the pressure being placed in their net interest margins caused by the 40 basis decline in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasuries in the past month.

    Year to date, Bank of America (BAC) is down almost 14%, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has lost almost 11% and Citigroup (C) is off by 12%.

    Interestingly, Wells Fargo (WFC) is only down about 3%. The stock appears to benefit from the pervasive expectations that declining 10-year yields will drag down mortgage rates, stimulating both refinance and housing purchase activity, and thus mortgage lending.

    But there's a problem with that expectation. Long-end Treasury yields and mortgage rates have been declining for the past 13 months. Throughout this period, home purchase activity has continued to deteriorate for both new and existing properties.

    Although this has had a detrimental impact over the past year on the homebuilders stocks, as I discussed last week in the column Homebuilders May Signal a Correction, it has not impacted traders' and investors' expectations for the performance of Wells Fargo.

    In the past year, even as Treasury yields and mortgage rates declined, the stock prices of Bank of America, JPMorgan and Citigroup have lost 9%, 1% and 2%, respectively, while Wells Fargo has advanced by 15%.

    This is nonsensical, with the negative performers being more indicative of real potential for the sector. Additionally, because of the concentration of its business being in the residential mortgage lending space, Wells Fargo's stock should be even more sensitive to the poor performance in the housing sector than the other three.

    The chart below shows the performance of both prices and sales of new and existing homes on a smoothed basis.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 29, 2015 8:04 AM Flag

    No upside from here until at least next earnings report. Dead money at best. All risk is to the downside.

  • Bill Ackman on MarketWatch. Let's get ready to rumble Blue Mountain.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 26, 2015 10:28 AM Flag

    Bye Bye Blue

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 26, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    Rocket fuel.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 26, 2015 9:45 AM Flag

    Price Target $20. Says the California settlement makes the suspension of the licence unlikely.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 23, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    Shiv Kapoor, a Levittown, New York-based trader who owns 20,000 FXCM shares which he bought at $1.50, said the stock looks attractive as a possible buyout candidate or if it remains independent.

  • jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 23, 2015 4:32 PM Flag

    Are you getting your quotes from you local community newspaper?

  • Looks like the company will survive and that chap. 11 if off the table.This explains the rip into the close.

    Foreign-exchange broker FXCM Inc. plans to consider sales of noncore assets to help pay off portions of a $300 million rescue loan it received after trading losses nearly sank the firm, according to people familiar with the matter.

  • Reply to

    Feel Like Getting Out Today

    by jlivingstone2000 Jan 23, 2015 2:00 PM
    jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 23, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    I bailed. $438.55. I'll be watching from the sidelines now. Feels weird to be out. Feel like I just broke up with my girlfriend. Haha.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 23, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Been holding for months. $354 avg. Nice run this week after months of pain. I think the lemon is just about out of juice for the next while.

  • Even for day trades. If a deal is announced, it will pop in the blink of an eye, then get halted, then re-open $20+ higher. You will be rushed to the hospital. Be wise. Be careful.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 22, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Loaded up on calls. Could be announced at any moment.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 16, 2015 3:18 PM Flag

    As the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference rolls on this week, it is clear there will be volatility in the sector, although we seemed to kick it off a bit early with news hitting as early as Sunday night. As far as coverage goes, I highly recommend following TheStreet's Adam Feuerstein.

    I normally don't play this sector, but thanks to a ping from a friend north of the border, the Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) chart is really one to look at. There's been some bullish option activity on the call side around this one, but I'm looking at the price action as well. Not what has happened, but what didn't happen.

    Yesterday, the stock had all the looks of breaking down. The price was under support, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was pressing against 50, the Vortex Indicator crossed bearish and the stochastics had a bearish look to them as well. By all accounts, this thing should have died. Heck, even the five-day moving average was under the 13-day moving average after a recent bearish cross. The thing is, it didn't. The stock reversed off the breakdown levels and pushed back into the moving averages.

    Now, we jump into today and see the stock green. Of course, the strong broader market is some help, but I'm beginning to think the breakdown yesterday was a fake. While we still see some bearish indicators, the RSI bouncing off of 50 rather than falling through it speaks volumes. Add in the fact that the price is trying to get above short-term moving averages today, and we just might be set up for a nice little push higher.

    The price trigger is the multiple resistance lines, both short term and long term, which coincide at $13. The short-term resistance only goes back a few weeks, while longer term, we are talking about way back to August. I could almost argue for a two-headed inverse head-and-shoulders pattern here if such a thing existed, but it might be simpler to call it a curvy "W." T

  • I guess he/she expected some kind of announcement that never materialized.

  • jlivingstone2000 by jlivingstone2000 Jan 13, 2015 12:11 PM Flag

    Thank me later...

  • Reply to

    In for 12k shares Avg 12.58

    by tonvboloknee Jan 12, 2015 9:48 AM
    jlivingstone2000 jlivingstone2000 Jan 12, 2015 4:11 PM Flag

    You will be pleasantly surprised in a couple of days...

48.02-0.97(-1.98%)Jan 30 4:01 PMEST

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