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SolarCity Corporation Message Board

jmcvicker 1017 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 4 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Harris Ranch supercharger queue

    by jmcvicker 6 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 2 hours 4 minutes ago Flag

    and a reply to that
    Dual chargers don't matter here. I've seen charges as fast as 385 mi/hr myself. But most recently only got 225 mi/hr even though I was the only one there. The worst was 95 mi/hr (paired up stalls, I think).

  • Reply to

    Harris Ranch supercharger queue

    by jmcvicker 6 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 2 hours 6 minutes ago Flag

    Same thread, other problems.
    I pulled into a supercharger with 4 rated miles the other day, and it took over 30 minutes to get 130 miles. That was somewhat disappointing and not the "half charge in 20 minutes". I decided to do a full charge and it took 1 hour and 20 minutes. It never went over 280mph charge rate and I was alone. Towards the end it was 130-140mph rate. It was all in all quite a bit slower to charge than I expected. Anyone know if dual chargers would have made it faster?

  • Reply to

    Dear tesla long positions

    by lee.carda 20 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 3 hours ago Flag

    For #7, was that sales burst due to the purchase of over 1000 units by Consolidated International by Sol Shenk?

    A note here this past week had a China Tesla manager noting a $400,000 Yuan price for Model 3. With Chinese import taxes and VAT and such - that may put the base price in the USA at approximately $42k.

  • More of this to come to add to the "color" of being a travelling BEV owner.
    poster...| DECEMBER 26, 2014
    Please please add chargers at Harris Ranch. 3 others were already waiting in line when I pulled up over 30 minutes ago. I am getting lectured by my family about the wait. If I have to wait like this here again, I'm cancelling my Model X and taking back my deposit. Thank you in advance.

    poster... | DECEMBER 27, 2014

    I was in Harris ranch yesterday and had the same experience. 30 minute wait. I was the third person in line. 3 more cars arrived when I was pulling in to charge.

    Every spot at Harris ranch was filled (not just Superchargers) and the wait for lunch (at 3pm) was 20 minutes.

    I crossed my fingers and walked to the swap station, but it was locked up tight.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 6 hours ago Flag

    More than 35. Including motorcycles, trucks, etc...

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 7 hours ago Flag

    Very concise and correct. One for the record books. Kind of reminds me of QCOM. Oh wait, no, the pot stocks. Oh wait, no, the Fuel Cell stocks in 2001. Cisco? Compaq? MCI? Long list of pump and dumps through time. "Terrific value stocks" say the analysts - until they manipulate the trade to their advantage.

    Nothing changes until Q4 ER comes out and review of "Customer Reservations" can be reviewed. It doesn't matter about how well Q4 was, it matters on how well 2015 might be. Actually - this may be why analysts are talking up "grid storage" now, a little early to add hype to reality. Most analysts do not really know the industries they "comment on". The EV plug-in market is set to grow only by 15-20% in 2015 over 2014. Less growth than 2013-2014. Growth is what "fuels" a market. I called sub-30% growth for 2014 a year ago. Larger vehicle sales are growing again. F and GM may have better stock growth into 2015 than TSLA due to this.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 7 hours ago Flag

    Do you remember a few years back when Dan Galves, then at DB, proclaimed good success was on its way for: Fisker Motors, A123 Systems, Ener-1 (all BK) and who knows what else. Analysts do what they are told. I would like to hear the CEO and President of such financial firms make recommendations and not their employee-analysts who they can "blame" and RIF for bad calls. "Gee, we thought they did due diligence, but I guess we were we let the guy go."

    Right now, analysts are using the "don't worry about what they have done, or what they are doing -- think about the things they could do..." approach to investments. They don't look at quarterly tactics and rather focus on the whiteboard "ideas" that they have in long-term strategy. For "Hope" is all you need when investing, isn't that correct?

    SEC cannot charge anyone with speculation or bad research (negligence?). The less these guys look into a company, the less culpable they are if things go bad. That is why they lob soft-ball questions during the Q&A. Don't want to dive "too deep" and if they do, they get the "no' answer when asking something important - about "could you give us some color on sales by region".

    Tell me this, folks. Who in your immediate family, business relationships, friends, online "friends" and just about anyone you know - who is in the market for "grid storage" products? Anyone you know in the last 5-10 years ever shop for "grid storage"? Well who does? Those who are interested in the tax credits involved in trying-out the products which could cut their expenses. Companies losing money don't invest in things with tax credits. Companies with good profits do - like Walmart - in places with contrived electric tiered rates like California. And rich homeowners who think they can power their house during a black-out - they need at least 3-4 days worth of kWh storage to make it work well. This is 100+ kWh, not 10. Ever hear of a generator for $5K?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 7 hours ago Flag

    Toyota? Well, if you consider Prius using electricity as a Hybrid to establish the whole Hybrid market, sure.

    But don't forget others - there are now about 22 total plug-in makes/models for sale in the USA right now, more than 35 worldwide. Review the "Sales scorecard" on insideevs for a good comprehensive list. Tesla has one line item there.

    Elon didn't even found the company Telsa Motors and yet the press continues to incorrectly state that he is "the founder of Tesla". At least they should learn about the company before the worshiping commences.

  • Reply to

    Roadster Upgrade

    by cbx6cylinder 22 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 19 hours ago Flag

    A 3-4 year old car with 15,000 miles on it doesn't seem to be crying out for range extension. It appears the capacity of the 18650 cells going into the Roadster are not as dense as those in the Model S today. There is a cell Tesla wants to use for energy storage for SCTY and it is roughly the same capacity cell noted as being used here, in the 3.1 Ah energy capacity. Perhaps this is use for those cells? Not much detail on the individual cell but it allows cells sourced for energy storage to also be used here in the Roadster. Number of cells in total would be 6831 times the number of cars who upgrade. Imagine 1000 owners upgrade, total of 6.8 million cells. Not a huge project but the value in press releases and chatter is high. Worth the effort.

  • Reply to

    Roadster Upgrade

    by cbx6cylinder 22 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 19 hours ago Flag

    The Tesla owner I cite uses his real name, gives the car's serial number and includes the prior owner's name in his signature. He is also a Leaf owner and wants to buy a Model 3.

  • Reply to

    Roadster Upgrade

    by cbx6cylinder 22 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 20 hours ago Flag

    31% more by going from 2.4Ah cells to 3.1Ah cells. The rest of the kit for range extension comes from new tires, wheel bearings and brake-drag improvement along with some aerodynamics.

    One roadster owner on TMC describes it as getting socks and underwear for Christmas.

  • Reply to

    Oil/Gas Glut not hurting SCTY

    by markp1950 Dec 26, 2014 3:01 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 22 hours ago Flag

    What the drop to 10% means is... more customer will choose to "get me the cheapest Chinese panels you can find". Losing 20% of the federal credit will be further pressure against using USA-located solar firms. Including those in Buffalo, NY.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 22 hours ago Flag

    It is a proven car company and a totally unproven energy company. And if the only thing they do as an energy company is make bricks of rechargeable stationary storage - that market is already mature and growing with other, far more capable firms from ABB to GE to battery firms to whomever. They are a battery "reseller" now and their future tech is nothing new to the marketplace. Of-grid homesteaders have used energy storage for nearly decades now (solar with AGM/Lead-acid storage). Now, Li-Ion variants are coming out of China such as LiFEPO4 solutions with low cost and high capacity and charge controllers which do not cost that much.

    The negative viewpoint is that some are "estimating" that electricity from the Grid continues to go up in price. Only in spot markets - such as California or island-areas like Hawaii or Caribbean. The grid itself is able to serve customers at a set rate for years to come. Trying to "sell" people on going off-grid is a disservice to their financial well being.

    One specific area of energy storage that is said to be a growth area is more in the 'peak shaving" area. This is the same deal as storing renewables for off-hours use. The point of this is to smooth the grid demand and thus lower all PoCo cost basis for their electricity at wholesale for the billing period. If the MW downstream demand of the power company does not ramp up in the summer time, then they don't need to paid high hourly rates to the power providers during those peaks. Then everyone benefits with a sustainable electric bill that doesn't go up every year.

    By Telsa using government money to install peak-load shaving technologies, they may actually be lowering electricity costs of everyone else. Government funds slushed to specific users, such as Walmart, to save expense monies and better their bottom line. This is government "choosing winners" through directed programs. At the same time, the plan is to lower federal tax credits from 30% to 10% in 2017.

  • Reply to

    Oil/Gas Glut not hurting SCTY

    by markp1950 Dec 26, 2014 3:01 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 23 hours ago Flag

    2017/01/01 - that is the date the Federal tax credit drops from 30% to 10%. Local solar installers around here are sending out flyers to potential customers warning about this and to "get in line now for an install..."

  • Reply to

    230 tops near term

    by microtrader2 Dec 26, 2014 1:43 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 26, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    Roadster 3.0 blog is up today. I think it's somewhat anticlimactic. But algo trading will think it's meaningful. It is not a step toward sustainable transportation - but it is research into tuning aerodynamics which might be useful in Model 3. It appears that if you get the upgrades, drive conservatively in the 40-50 mph range, you can make the 400 mile trip from SF to LA. Of course, why not just change the inverter to allow supercharger access and use that technology to improve roadsters. Roadsters can already use HPWC through a 3rd party converter plug.

  • Reply to

    It's only going to get better...

    by j.vasq75035 Dec 25, 2014 11:44 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 26, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    The roadster "news" is to get real owners to pay for their research - put higher density cells into the roadsters and get them to do long range testing for Tesla via Supercharger access - and pay for the upgrade too. I guess that is smart - get the rabid fans to pay to do experimentation. What's the cost gonna be? $30K? $25K? Will today's "tweet" offer a price? Rather than "talking up" 400 miles, they should offer 300-miles of range and SuperCharger access for free.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 26, 2014 8:57 AM Flag

    Some day, those will grow in percentage - one way is if we limit what we use through conservation. Solar just offsets mid-day power usage and does not solve the late-day peak (and batteries are decades away from proliferation, even if they prove to work).

    n 2013, energy sources and percent share of total electricity generation were

    Coal 39%
    Natural Gas 27%
    Nuclear 19%
    Hydropower 7%
    Other Renewable 6%
    Biomass 1.48%
    Geothermal 0.41%
    Solar 0.23%
    Wind 4.13%
    Petroleum 1%
    Other Gases

  • Reply to

    Why So Many Used Tesla's For Sale?

    by robskydives Dec 26, 2014 8:27 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 26, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    Because of this type of customer. Buy a new car, year and half later, buy another one that uses even more power. That's insane! :)
    I got mine yesterday.. and had almost exactly the same results. It appears that you can manage 300 wh/m, but only with much more care than previously (I had an S85). I'm showing at least 25% more power consumption for similar driving conditions. That, combined with the old-style seats make me wonder about investing all the extra $$ - but it is generally more sophisticated than my 1.7 year old S85, and it is certainly FAST!

  • Reply to

    First official pricing on the Model 3

    by temagami67 Dec 24, 2014 1:36 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 24, 2014 9:00 PM Flag

    Speaking of China - here is what it looks like in China with ICE vehicles blocking a supercharger site.

  • Reply to

    First official pricing on the Model 3

    by temagami67 Dec 24, 2014 1:36 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 24, 2014 3:41 PM Flag

    In other words, when Musk says they will be making cars in China in 3-4 years, they "have to" in order to make them affordable there for the people who are upper-middle class. Buying a $40K USA-made car in China is not cheap.

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