The after hours early 15 minute candle was enormous and it settled into nothing gained, nothing lost. That is not something you see every day.
The term was "Tesla used to be known for showing cars. Now, we're we, we're, we are not showing cards."
Seeking Alpha should have the transcript of the call up sometime soon. If not, listen to the call. I can't believe you guys are here and haven't listened to the call - it's available on the Telsa web site under Investors.
Huh ? The Model III will not go on sale until 2017 and that's what they have said. Model X starts up in 2015. What happens in 2016? An attempt to get ready to produce batteries an lower the input costs on MS and MX.
Model III never was said to be available ever before that time.
Just check out the cash flow without the bond overallocation occurring in Q2... Yes, was due to CapEx but there will be no bond overallocation in Q3. Q3 should be at best a cent or two non-GAAP profit. If only 7500 are delivered (why, with 1000 in pipeline out of Q2...) The blame game happened on the call - saying would have had higher deliveries in Q3 (future-tense) if the factory would not have shut for retooling. You know what - the new high speed line is SEPARATE from the old one. They didn't even need to stop the lines at all - just run the following week on the new HS line rather than the old line. Separate parts of the building. If needs were there for more deliveries in Q3 - then they should have run the old line 7x24 in the first three weeks of July and gave the guys time off for two weeks while retooling. There is a lot of fuzzy math going on that people have to account for.
You and everyone should listen to the call. Really listen in detail and take notes. Especially with terms like they "can drive demand at will" and already speculating out loud on a public call about next year's guidance without even having priced the MX yet. I think Keef is onto something.
They asked a few harder questions on the Q&A call. Sort of asking "how will you make 35K guidance if you only do 7800 in Q3? What about Q4?" Musk kind of brushed that off as "yeah, so, something like 12k to 13k" and later, said they can drive demand at-will. A lot of smoke and mirrors answers on the call and the "not showing cards and more". There was a lot of unspoken "stuff" on the call. The kicker was that 2000/wk run rate consideration for late 2015 and using that to maintain financial stability and create an imaginary future. Sure, the MX will be good and sure they may sell 25K of each but spinning up the media with thoughts of further doubling by end of year and implying 60K in sales (Musk's "area under the graph") was not challenged by the callers on Q&A. Honestly, it sounded like some were starting to question their answers.
They have pre-announced up to 2 million shares of dilution in Q3. "Only" 727,000 shares of dilution in Q2. A pittance.
to 140,948 from 140,221
Based on our current stock price, we project between 141 million and 143 million diluted shares outstanding in Q3.
Simon Sproule, VP of communications at Tesla, says that the Model III will sell for "about $40K" - interviewed in the LA Times very recently.
They will catch-up again on US orders by end of the year. Right now, we saw some early to mid-July orders get last week in september delivery dates. One on the east coast (July 19 - Sept 30 in PA).
This is why they do not print reservations by model. I do think they will stop giving out sequential reservation numbers for Model X soon. They did that back in Q1 of 2013 when the US orders per day dropped to 20/day. Keep in mind that right now, TMC shows the US MX Production rate is roughly 25/day, world a bit over 40.
I'm still surprised they are keeping 35K as annual target. Can being kicked one more quarter. There still is time to have a "problem" and restart the plant a little late. They already used language in the letter that said "if we didn't shut down the plant...' (well if they had run 3 shifts and weekends leading up to now, they could have produced more inventory). When you use "could have" language, it is stretching. No reason for excuse language in financial documents.
They only have to be right - behind closed doors. Who here "subscribes" to these firms? MS has been a net seller of shares at the end of the past 4-quarters.
Looks lke just enough is being said (ie. the 100K run rate next year) to excite the minions and perhaps let the IB underwriters sell their holdings continuously through Q4.
How can a company imply 100K run rate by end of next year by saying they will produce 9000 and deliver 7500 in Q3 2014 without, well, at least BMW executives chuckling a little about it.
The term "100K rate by end of 2015" will be easily turned into "expects to sell 100K in 2015" by many financial press. This is called variable press coverage.
NO - the term is "annualized by end of year". Such as "we will deliver 8200 in December". They are not saying will sell 100K next year at all.
It's in the desert and the job site is quiet now, per the stories indicating everyone was laid off (well, except the security guards).
Makes me wonder why - 1800 cars already produced in Q3, 1000 in pipeline, 1000/wk - sounds like they have another week of downtime schedule for the line or they will not run the high-speed line at "high speed".
Q4 MUST BE 12,000 produced and delivered.