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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 8961 posts  |  Last Activity: 4 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Capital Raise - Say Bye Bye

    by jlivingstone2000 4 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 4 hours ago Flag

    Why would GS pre-announce something ? If they are a book-runner (usually are) then they wouldn't do that. Is there any proof of this chatter? Where is the note?

  • Reply to

    199/mo for a leaf.

    by scottish_rocket_scientist 19 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 4 hours ago Flag

    Leaf has CHAdeMO fast DC charging - under 1-hour to charge. Nissan dealers are installing CHAdeMO across the USA and is helping raise some interest that someone can come by and get a charge quickly if they are out and around town. Normal overnight charging at home on 240 either at 3.3KW or 6.6KW is normal and gives a driver a full charge when ready to drive in the morning.

    And, it is ugly - it is of Japanese design and style. They need to electrify the Maxima or Altima.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder 20 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 6 hours ago Flag

    If they drive for convenience, they will live for convenience. I don't see people buying EVs who are not EV enthusiasts. Look at the GE Fleet purchase plan of the Volts and Energi models that they made their employees do. The employees mainly never plugged in their EREV cars. They got typically 30-33 mpg and no electric range because they drove it like they stole it (because they were given the cars) and they kept tire pressure lower than recommended and put in Regular Gas because they got gas cards and you get more regular per dollar. That is the type of people you mentioned, non-enthusiasts.

    People will not buy EVs if they feel their convenience will be cut. They like gas stations scattered about, the ability to take the car to the top speed and own the road. Frankly, I don't want them in the EV enthusiast crowd because they really have very little care for anyone but themselves.

    I also use less than 350 W/h in my Volt at 70 mph but I choose 65-68 mph as my highway speeds. I can still get 42 miles on the highway electrically because it is steady-state, not stop and go where acceleration uses more stored power. Would you rather jog 5 miles or run 50 100-yard dashes?

    60 kWh in the Model 3 will not sell for $40k even with the battery factory unless they come up with cheap, high-storage Lithium Sulfer design with 2000+ recharge potential. $50K maybe - but will the common buyer put up with the minimalistic interior when they compare with the other mid-range luxury cars?

    What we really need "for sustainability" is cheaper, more pedestrian cars. $25K base, 150 mile and then a more basic model with various options. Upper middle class and wealthy can buy expensive cars. Who needs the benefits the most? The people with less income who do need to commute to work every day and run errands. It will be a long time before Tesla can support this group. They are mainly looking at collecting funds from those who can afford to join the EV country club.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 19 hours ago Flag

    My estimation it will be 7, but perhaps if done really well, 8 times as safe as human drivers. His claim of 10 is pure hogwash. It will be 7. It must be a prime number.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder 20 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 19 hours ago Flag

    50 kWh? I can get high 40 miles out of my paultry 10.4 kWh in my Volt. Surely they hit 200 miles with 50kWh. Not in winter, of course, and everyone knows EVs lose a large amount of range (20-30%) in winter.

  • Reply to

    TSLA an "all in" poker hand

    by want2popov 21 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 20 hours ago Flag

    No, GM is not leader in EVs. It is Nissan/Renault, by far. Leaf, e-NV200 + the various Renault models.
    GM does have the plug-in Cruze in Korea and the Spark EV here and there. Some would not count the Volt/ELR as EVs due to nature of the engine extender.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder 20 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 20 hours ago Flag

    Simon Sproule was quoted in an LA Times article saying it will be "about $40K". Do you have some link or reference for this $50K? Even I don't believe that one.

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 20 hours ago Flag

    quick question - if the factory is not running full speed and they are production constrained - why not run it more? If it really can do 2000 a week and demand is there, why not run it? See the problem is - when someone says it is production constrained - the plant or some input parts must be the limiting factor. Is the limit labor / people? They had an open house for new hires and had to shut it down due to the number of people wanting to work there. So, labor is not a concern other than costs. I think we are seeing a balancing act between new incoming orders, plant production and logistics. Which means the transition from production constraint to demand constraint is occuring.

    And, where are the Vin #s? 9/9 was the last reported post from someone getting a Vin#. I really think they will hold back giving out new Vin #s now for a few reasons. We may actually see them go through ER in October/November without a Vin # issuance. probability is low - but it could happen. Other automakers do not give Vin #s out until the frame is painted for the job (job = one car produced).

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 23 hours ago Flag

    Hang on a sec. For clarity... They produced 1,000 more than sold in Q1. They produced 1,200 more than sold in Q2. So, they sell all that they produce is currently not correct until the sales surpass production. Sure, they are en-route but the two numbers taken-discretely do not say they sell all that they have produced. In Q3, there is a small chance that sales equal production due to the shutdown / restart window.

  • Reply to

    UBER AND TSLA WOULD MAKE A PERFECT MARRIAGE

    by market440 Sep 16, 2014 3:27 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 23 hours ago Flag

    I think taxis are a perfect solution for EVs. Tesla or otherwise. They tried to establish a Nissan Leaf taxi service in Arlington, VA last year. The town council voted against it. Mainly due to worry and fear.

  • Reply to

    UBER AND TSLA WOULD MAKE A PERFECT MARRIAGE

    by market440 Sep 16, 2014 3:27 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    That may happen in SF or NYC. Try that in Milwaukee or Lincoln, NE.

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 12:56 PM Flag

    I have penciled in 7760 for Q3 deliveries, 8800 for production.
    I have 32600 for the year in terms of deliveries and production in Q4 about 11000 by making some batches of spec cars for placement at the Tesla dealerships for immediate sale as the backlog is worked through internationally. For example, in France, they sold 15 cars in August. But is that because of slow shipments, focus on US sales, import restrictions, bad sales, order limits, not enough test drives? German and Dutch sales also slim for August. So, how do you "fix" that - you have sales promotions, larger inventory pre-staged in-country and more. The only way to sell more is produce more and get them out there. Is is a requirement to do retail right - stock the shelves.

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 12:13 PM Flag

    They are projecting 7800 for Q3 (deliveries) per Musk yesterday on Fox biz news - they said they may produce 9000 units during Q3.

  • Reply to

    model 3 Cost to be 50k is a joke

    by spre1975 Sep 18, 2014 9:59 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 10:11 AM Flag

    You are acting strange today. Are you a bear now, did you sell? 50k would be a highly-optioned Model 3. $40k starting price, give or take.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 8:42 AM Flag

    His inability for forecast is very telling of his disconnection from daily operations. Maybe they keep him away from the real numbers so he can claim he did not know the details if something goes bad. Like I have said, they have to act like they are going to sell 35K a year this year until they don't and need to adjust guidance. Still waiting for Vin #s which seemed to have stopped 9/9. I still pencil in 32600 as a rough target. With 15-20k MX year, the total sales will be well below 60k. Not only do they need 14K in Q4 they need more than that for the next four quarters.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 17, 2014 11:19 PM Flag

    And if they are sold out for 2015, why does the web sight show Fall 2015 delivery if ordered now?

  • Reply to

    Um maybe something wrong with my math here

    by selloffin321 Sep 17, 2014 5:51 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 17, 2014 9:23 PM Flag

    Review site insideevs and check story lg-chem-stakes-future-ev-batteries

  • Reply to

    Um maybe something wrong with my math here

    by selloffin321 Sep 17, 2014 5:51 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 17, 2014 9:22 PM Flag

    Nissan is moving to LG Chem and it has recently been announced.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 17, 2014 8:57 PM Flag

    They will but Elon just told them 2015 is sold out and thus they will not get them until 16. So, they may wait longer slowing orders. And wait out the price announcement. Say, when is that going to happen anyway?

  • Reply to

    HOW MANY unsold cars at the end of Q2?

    by dynamicviolence Sep 16, 2014 11:40 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 17, 2014 8:29 PM Flag

    Australia only has a few hundred pending, same for HK at this point and some there haven't been built. They don't discuss china but imports there are not yet disclosed for August. That is a lot of PBNS cars but the 9000 is nearly impossible given the run rate in August. I would say production should be more like 8000 in Q3, 7760 sold, if they clear the deck on the prior overages. I get 8 k as 1700, 2300, 4000.

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