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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1450 posts  |  Last Activity: 25 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 25 minutes ago Flag

    What about all the promises made in Germany earlier in the year? In London? Where's the friend "doing a hyperloop prototype"? Battery swap (told to audience at the swap demo late-2013)? The story continues.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 16 minutes ago Flag

    It is a strong industry now but not in 2005 when the tax credit was written. I believe we need to remove (mostly or entirely) the incentives. Primarily the 30% federal tax credit is gone at the end of 2016. In terms of growth, doesn't this affect companies doing Solar leases, PPAs and sales somewhat strongly in a couple years?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 31 minutes ago Flag

    I worked for a CEO who had that style. Wouldn't listen to his employees. Lied to companies he was trying to sell the entreprise to. His board was not allowed to talk to the employees. In the end, closed down couple years later. Public company too.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 34 minutes ago Flag

    China? Solar? Maybe they should do the Solar PV stuff here in the USA first to cover the 95%+ of superchargers that do not have the "promised" Solar PV array above or nearby. That takes CapEx. There is no SCTY in China to do the installs and so there would need to be local guys paid to do it.

    "Investing" in China is interesting and surely would be to use OPM (bonds or dilution) to do it. But the same happens with GM and F and others who may issue a bond for such actions. If it is so important to have this Gigafactory in order to "work out" the Gen-III in the USA, then it is presumed that early on, battery systems will be shipped from the USA to China for install - then another battery plant will be needed or should I say "needed" in China. Gigafactory 2 in China? CapEx.

    Look for 4 years of "investing" by spending down cash-from-debt and issuing more. The potential for an annual GAAP profit appears to be a minimum four years out and continuous cash-burn. This is because of all the "3-4 year" statements taken in-aggregate. Lot of CapEx. At least put up some Solar PV at Fremont to show real interest in sustainability. Doesn't it seem strange to see no Solar PV there?

    The VerbEx (Verbal) needs to be converted to CapEx and this means actually spending a lot of OPM. Down the road, this smooths the stock out and the eventual valuation will be based on "earnings now" and not "story of tomorrow".

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 53 minutes ago Flag

    The Chinese are less tolerant of shenanigans than the US folk. Some fans call it "underpromise, overdeliver". This is what they call the late-2013 promise of the Model X and the $30K Gen-III. And battery swap. And...

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 56 minutes ago Flag

    I saw a black Tesla MS on I-95 northbound in heavy traffic in MD yesterday. About 15 miles S. of Del SC. You?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 18 hours ago Flag

    I bet my local Cheesecake Factory will still have the 1-2 hour wait as usual. But in flyover country it won't be good to see a move to nearly 5% mortgages in the summer.

  • Reply to

    Solar City Ads everywhere, anyone else notice?

    by makingdollaz Apr 19, 2014 1:59 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 20, 2014 9:52 AM Flag

    Ads appearing now is expected. On the last quarterly call, Rive said that they had worked down the backlog of orders and that it was a good thing. Those who run businesses well want to have growing backlog.

  • Reply to

    TSLA to be the next $100,000 stock

    by alai288 Apr 19, 2014 4:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 19, 2014 2:23 PM Flag

    CHAdeMO has thousands more DC fast charging sites than Tesla right now.

    “The number of CHAdeMO DC Quick chargers installed up to today is 3511.
    — (Japan 1,967, Europe 990, USA 554, Others 12) last update 2014.01.28″
    ---------------

    CHAdeMO officially recognized as international DC fast charging standard published by IEC
    17 March 2014
    The CHAdeMO protocol has been officially recognized as an international DC charging standard by the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC), a leading global organisation that publishes international standards for electric and electronic products and related technologies.

    Since 2009, following the commercialization of the new generation of EVs that were fast chargeable using the innovative CHAdeMO technology, CHAdeMO Association members have been taking an active role in the IEC technical committees 61851-23, -24, as well as 62196-3 in order to drive the consensus approach of international standardisation.

    After 4 years of expert meetings, in January 2014, the FDIS (final draft international standard) for 61851-23 and -24 were approved by the committees and were finally published on the IEC website yesterday.

    DC fast charging system standards IEC 61851-23 gives the requirements for “DC chargers” and provides the general requirements for the control communication between a DC fast charger and an EV. IEC 62851-24 defines digital communication between a DC fast charger and an EV.

    In all of the aforementioned technical committees, CHAdeMO is among the 3 different systems that were approved to be international DC charging standards: CHAdeMO proposed by Japan (System A); GB/T by China (B); COMBO1 by the US and COMBO2 by Germany (C).

    As of 14 March 2014, there are 3,605 CHAdeMO DC Quick chargers installed worldwide: 1,967 in Japan; 1,072 in Europe; 554 in the US; and 12 other places.

  • Reply to

    Curse those LAWS OF PHYSICS!

    by keefwotgetsaround Apr 18, 2014 5:24 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 19, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    In terms of battery, fewer are failing so far. But I read that one guy is on his fifth drivetrain in a car under 20,000 miles. That cost adds up in terms of labor, parts, shipping, re-manufacturing units and so on. Something inherently wrong with the drivetrain engineering caused a lot of replacements by vocal owners on TMC and elsewhere. Not everyone had the issue but this is probably the primary warranty work done so far. - after 50,000 miles, these replacements are going to be paid for by the car owners unless they buy the extended warranty.

    With the Model X having two drivetrains - the "higher speed motor/drivetrain hum" issue must be solved by then.

  • Reply to

    CRS-3 successfully in orbit

    by markp1950 Apr 18, 2014 3:43 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 19, 2014 8:36 AM Flag

    Here is a quest for the genius. Stop farmland fertilizer runoff from creating killing zones in the gulf of mexico. Farming needed for the world's population (fuels and food) requires heavy inputs of mineral and petroleum produxts that leach out into rivers, streams, the Mississippi river and the gulf. Doing that is a much bigger benefit than shooting off rockets.

    Everyone can be driving EVs and this problem would still exist. Sustainability means less farming overall and growing foods closer to home. Part of the solution would be less corn for ethanol farming. Corn requires a lot of input fertilizer.

  • Reply to

    Model S Owners - Is it really worth owning MS?

    by zorroxxx69 Apr 18, 2014 12:34 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 18, 2014 1:27 PM Flag

    What about comparing a very clean, low miles used luxury car? Some people buy such cars because they are half price or less of new. I guess this is a showroom versus showroom compare only? And what about people who never use free superchargers but always power up at home?

  • Reply to

    Day trading from a phone while at work

    by tieisoptional Apr 18, 2014 7:28 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 18, 2014 9:00 AM Flag

    For the last part, I do think they overbooked Signatures and expect cancellations as the dates get closer. This means that $40k * a few hundred may not convert and be refunded. Reservations are not revenue but they imply future growth potential. Graphs of recent orders by reservation number are going up but still far below the run rate of the assembly line per day. Waiting for the larger burst rates nearer production late 2014. Keep in mind MX was supposed to be originally available late 2013. Then 2014...

  • Reply to

    Day trading from a phone while at work

    by tieisoptional Apr 18, 2014 7:28 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 18, 2014 8:55 AM Flag

    No, weeklies yesterday, the one poster here obama386 said he was buying them. I played along on paper. He probably did well, knew what he was doing.

    Tesla is a high volatility stock. Definitely a trader instrument. News could take it up $20 and down 20 over the next month. I still think H2 of this year is a dream. Doing 10,000 per quarter is highly suspect. But we won't know until well into Q3. US Vin assignment and delivery is still fast and does not look impacted by China or Euro orders. In fact, a few Belgium order posters were intrigued by earlier than expected delivery dates. I believe I am somewhat right in thinking they are trying to build down the pre orders as fast as possible in a show of strength, such as RHD and Asia and then figure out how to accelerate beyond that. They then would utilize marketing and other avenues to grow new orders.

    MX will be a distraction and in the news a lot late 2014 into 2015. With about 12,500-13,000 pre orders now (based on reservation number posts only), should end the year about 18,000-20,000 order assumptions. Good enough to keep things busy into 2015. But what will the level of cancellation be once final prices are set? What about those who reserved both Sig. and nonSig with intention to cancel one? Someone at Tesla said to a reservation holder that they intend to have 900 Sig MX for the US. But the reservation # is at 1365. Did 465 cancel or move to Model S? Did they overbook to have a larger reservation line item number for the earnings releases? Stuff like that is unclear...and meant to be that way.

  • Reply to

    Day trading from a phone while at work

    by tieisoptional Apr 18, 2014 7:28 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 18, 2014 7:55 AM Flag

    Sideways market with $8 swings can help with gains if you play it right.

    I did a paper trade only yesterday. Bought 195 puts at close on Wed for 1.24 and sold thursday way too early for 2.25. Went over 3.00. But it was paper in thinkorswim. Great product, that thinkorswim. I still haven't put any money into TD Ameritrade but the real time graphs are great.

  • Reply to

    This was pinned for OE at 2000

    by high_tech_2000 Apr 17, 2014 3:25 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 17, 2014 8:33 PM Flag

    I would be satisfied with a 2014 close up 5% or more for all indicies. 5% is fair for a year after 30%. A nice flat year is still tradeable. As long as inflation is held low. Need a jobs recovery too. GDP growth would follow. If you run a company then hire some fellow countrymen.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 17, 2014 5:39 PM Flag

    If a lot of people are driving like that, there will be carnage beyond what has already happened.

    By placing an over powered electric motor in a very heavy sedan, even with good handling, someone is going to launch one off a cliff somewhere or torpedo into cross-traffic.

  • Reply to

    Insiders are buying

    by spre1975 Apr 17, 2014 3:34 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 17, 2014 5:01 PM Flag

    Mr. spre - unless a Form-4 was filed and is available on the SEC web site - prove yourself and identify where this occured and where you read about it.

  • Reply to

    Tesla Roadster

    by randys731 Apr 17, 2014 10:33 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 17, 2014 12:43 PM Flag

    Tesla does not sell roadsters. Look on eBay.

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