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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1116 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 20, 2014 10:09 PM Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    That is why cars like the Volt make more sense for such trips. Drive all around town locally electrically then take the rare trip using gasoline. Or in the future, on Hydrogen, which is more energy-dense than gas.

    Superchargers do charge 100%. What you said isn't true.

  • Reply to

    Americans and particularily Californians

    by kkolbuch Sep 20, 2014 4:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 10:04 PM Flag

    The reason for lower sales in the EV marketplace is some of the disdain for the tax credits and giveaways themselves. I think some conservatives turn a nose up on such subsidy driven sales. Even the playing field by removing all subsidies. Then lower the sticker prices by the value of the tax credit as well through some benefits of cost of scale, growth should occur, some people cannot use the tax credit and don't see the point of overpaying for a car to save back the gas money, when EV cars cost the same as ICE cars of comparable performance, then they will start to sell in much higher volume. But still not nearly at the rate of ICE. Most people do not care about the environment enough to truly do something about their resource choices. One thing people could stop doing is buying plastic water bottles. David Suzuki, a Canadian scientist, says they are one of the worst things mankind ever invented

  • Reply to

    Hi Ballcoach

    by grftt Sep 20, 2014 7:06 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    Now, when I say employees, I include - the lady who sits behind a desk for service visitors, three or four floor people who are probably 25 or under (maybe even interns), a couple more in an accounting room, service manager, etc. I think they are acting like they will be selling 5+ units a day for all time. They are delivering 30+ the next two weeks but nothing like that rate the other weeks (in the midst of the typical final push).

    The idea "could work" in the long run but I think this location is setup for eventual unit sales off the lot - it's the only way to grow. To run a factory at an economic benefit, it must run at full speed and disburse product to the field. Whether the customers come and buy -that is another matter but I think now that once all wealthy markets are opened and Australia soon, the will need to install even more sales offices (ie. China) and try to keep flowing product. I don't know if it will work - but I don't think they have any other options. Custom orders cannot sustain through 500K a year. No auto maker has ever done 500k custom orders a year. (or 100K) With MX orders known at 42+ per day or 1260/month, that is not "huge" yet - and pricing is not yet known. They will need to spend and spend some more to grow and when will they be profitable? I don't see it in 2015. But the weird thing still looming is how will they do 13K or more in Q4 when orders are still coming in and getting December delivery dates. The year is not yet sold out and nobody is talking about that on CNBC. But they continue to talk about 2020 including the latest stint on Fox Business News. Always talk about 5 years out - no reason to think about even Q4 and the challenges there.

  • Reply to

    Hi Ballcoach

    by grftt Sep 20, 2014 7:06 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 2:36 PM Flag

    T bought an old dealership in the town near me. 80+ parking spots, at least. easily could fill it with 50 specs. The lot looks lonely with only 3-5 MS and empty spots for the remaining area. Big service area, 8+ techs working there and 10+ employees in the sales office.

  • Reply to

    $3.39 per gallon ========= Thank you EV buyers

    by kbodie77777 Sep 20, 2014 1:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 2:35 PM Flag

    As you can see - if the average driver chose a Volt because their average daily drive is about 40 miles, then that is why the AER and total miles per day is close. But we are talking averages and not the outliers of the bell curve. For the most part, people don't need 85 kWh on board. The binary thinking is it must be all batteries to be an EV and with an engine on board, it is "bad". Well, it's not bad if someone commutes 5 days a week on electricity and does a long drive on the weekends using a little bit of gas. Seems pretty good to me.

  • Reply to

    $3.39 per gallon ========= Thank you EV buyers

    by kbodie77777 Sep 20, 2014 1:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 2:31 PM Flag

    In terms of the Volts on the site voltstats (then add net to that).
    For Sept 2014
    Average electric miles per vehicle driving day: 33.24
    Total miles per VDD: 43.65

    Days in the year: 365
    Total electric miles per Volt on average in the system: 12,045

    What GM will be doing with the Volt-II is helping people achive more electric miles and get closer to a 1:1 ratio of average electric miles vs. the total miles per day. 10 more electric miles would help Volt drivers get far close to driving all electric. I think they will add 15-20 more miles of AER.

  • Reply to

    Hi Ballcoach

    by grftt Sep 20, 2014 7:06 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    I think one of your points was a car maker cannot get by and grow only on custom orders. I echo that in my thoughts that during Q4, they will be building maybe a few thousand spec cars to move out into the field, per quarter. If the assembly line can build faster than the prior and the incoming order rate is about the same then you need to run the line to prime the pump. Ordering is fine but there is a demand/supply line that does get crossed where more inventory is necessary for those not willing to wait or who need something "right now". This year's sub-35K sales will be one thing but trying to repeat it again next year without new markets to open is a tough one to try to do and I really think we will see their VP of Sales replaced with someone who is really good at making lot-sales work in various big city markets and who can tie-in advertising into the picture. Lot sales also allow for automated sales by using the aging and mile formula that they use - $1k per month of age off and $1 per mile driven before the sale.

  • Reply to

    A BIT ON TESLA NORWAY SALES...

    by flashrob Jul 2, 2014 11:49 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 12:35 PM Flag

    Let's say you cannot do the following in CA:
    - get HOV lane access for one occupant.
    - Get a TOU meter for re-charging at night cheaper.
    - get a state rebate of $2500.
    - also get the federal tax credit of 7500.

    It is not a bashing question - what are the sales like in the EV world (which I participate in driving a Volt) if those incentives were not there? They are there to start a market but they will not be there forever. Especially if politics comes to better budget management and removal of tax credits for those who can afford these cars without the credit. It almost seems like everyone expects these incentives to go on forever. They are there just to entice the education process. But when you give out HOV lane access, alone, that is a huge benefit to the common commuter in CA where they would never even think to car-pool or figure some other way out to drive their 80-100 miles and 2 hours each way. It is simply a "for me" entitlement. Live in a desert with inflated housing prices and have to drive 50+ miles to afford a house. What is yet to come will be quite painful. The managers at the firms can afford EVs to get the HOV lane access. Their younger workers cannot because they cannot get the tax credit due to lower income and lower tax liability and high cost of living expenses. These need to be at point of sale rebates off the selling price and not a tax credit if you want to reach all potential buyers.

  • You get a Vin #. Watching Vin #s is interesting. Isn't a Vin # supposed to be a car? Would they build the guy's car even if he cancels the reservation or do they use up Vin #s even if not built? This helps understand how Vin #s are getting ahead of production... Wondering how many Vin #s were abandoned...
    ----------------
    CANCELLED ORDER BEFORE 2 WEEKS WAS UP. NOW I HAVE A VIN?
    KrisKitchenz | SEPTEMBER 17, 2014
    So I placed a deposit on a model S after a test drive. I Cancelled it in the 2 week time frame, have confirmation.
    Just logged into mytesla account and noticed there was a VIN?
    Had anyone else had this happen?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 20, 2014 9:53 AM Flag

    Doesn't seem that far from the actual. The real issue is not that it saves gas but the cost of entry is somewhat high to do so. One can get a Chevy Volt new for $25K out of pocket, or less, and save almost the same amount on gas. I have a five year loan on my Volt and still pay $500/month plus higher insurance rates with Allstate (my fault for doing so). I put Tesla ownership at either $1/mile for an MS60 to $1.20/mile for P85+. That is over the life of ownership. It is more for a lease where you are limited to 36K or fewer miles and spend half the initial cost of the car when returning it. Imagine leasing a $100K car with 50% buy-back guarantee over three years. Heavy depreciation. And with 21" wheels, you are replacing tires once or twice over that 3-years as well especially if you do not have the forethought to force the issue of alignment verification when taking delivery.

    To many, owning a Tesla is a trophy for investing in TSLA two years ago. "Bought mine with stock earnings". Would be better to buy a house or Solar PV array with the stock earnings where payback occurs, not depreciation.

    The numbers don't work, exactly, but buyers do it for the fun and novelty. Much like owners of 1960s restored muscle cars. There is a passion and passion has no price. If people acted frugally, the economy would not grow as fast as it is and wall streeters would not get as rich, as fast. So, get out there to the shopping mall and buy your wife a Coach handbag, some Mont Blanc pens and dinner at Cheesecake Factory. For the experience not for the savings. Put it on the credit card...

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 6:22 PM Flag

    You know, one of the best buys on the market is an off-lease Volt. If you don't have an EV, but are a proponent, you can have a Volt which should easily last through 200K or more miles - for under $19K for a used off-lease, well taken care of one with under 35K-36K miles. The Volt may be one of, if not the, most innovative products from GM and includes just as much ability to give someone nearly 90% or more all electric miles yet allow long-trips without rationalizing.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 4:53 PM Flag

    Sheesh - if you think it is going up, sell March 275 puts, don't buy 275 calls. Or heck, sell 250 puts and still make good money and not be locked into the 275.

  • Reply to

    Something is up...

    by quikfeat Sep 18, 2014 10:20 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 3:55 PM Flag

    This thing is a joke. I had sold 135 calls a week or two ago. Was doing fine. Yesterday, ramped up, had to close out for a pittance of profit. Today, back to $135. So it goes.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Correction, 500,000 EVs. Of any sort.

    8 Million commuters using plug-in vehicles would allow us to not import any OPEC oil at all. Going to take some time.

  • Reply to

    GOLDMAN/SACHS.....................

    by ballcoach_30 Sep 19, 2014 11:31 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 3:47 PM Flag

    I mentioned here maybe 5-6 times that I believe for an auto company to sell at a rate of 1 million units a year (for each million units), an investment of $10 Billion is necessary. Then, the intention is to earn back the investment through profits of sales.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    At this point, you can't take a FC car on a trip. They are doing the first batch of FC cars to appease California and Japanese regulators. It can be efficient with today's cheaper H2 pricing but it has come down by more than 1/2 over the past 3 years and that can easily reverse.

  • Reply to

    Capital Raise - Say Bye Bye

    by jlivingstone2000 Sep 19, 2014 9:19 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Why would GS pre-announce something ? If they are a book-runner (usually are) then they wouldn't do that. Is there any proof of this chatter? Where is the note?

  • Reply to

    199/mo for a leaf.

    by scottish_rocket_scientist Sep 18, 2014 5:56 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    Leaf has CHAdeMO fast DC charging - under 1-hour to charge. Nissan dealers are installing CHAdeMO across the USA and is helping raise some interest that someone can come by and get a charge quickly if they are out and around town. Normal overnight charging at home on 240 either at 3.3KW or 6.6KW is normal and gives a driver a full charge when ready to drive in the morning.

    And, it is ugly - it is of Japanese design and style. They need to electrify the Maxima or Altima.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder Sep 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    If they drive for convenience, they will live for convenience. I don't see people buying EVs who are not EV enthusiasts. Look at the GE Fleet purchase plan of the Volts and Energi models that they made their employees do. The employees mainly never plugged in their EREV cars. They got typically 30-33 mpg and no electric range because they drove it like they stole it (because they were given the cars) and they kept tire pressure lower than recommended and put in Regular Gas because they got gas cards and you get more regular per dollar. That is the type of people you mentioned, non-enthusiasts.

    People will not buy EVs if they feel their convenience will be cut. They like gas stations scattered about, the ability to take the car to the top speed and own the road. Frankly, I don't want them in the EV enthusiast crowd because they really have very little care for anyone but themselves.

    I also use less than 350 W/h in my Volt at 70 mph but I choose 65-68 mph as my highway speeds. I can still get 42 miles on the highway electrically because it is steady-state, not stop and go where acceleration uses more stored power. Would you rather jog 5 miles or run 50 100-yard dashes?

    60 kWh in the Model 3 will not sell for $40k even with the battery factory unless they come up with cheap, high-storage Lithium Sulfer design with 2000+ recharge potential. $50K maybe - but will the common buyer put up with the minimalistic interior when they compare with the other mid-range luxury cars?

    What we really need "for sustainability" is cheaper, more pedestrian cars. $25K base, 150 mile and then a more basic model with various options. Upper middle class and wealthy can buy expensive cars. Who needs the benefits the most? The people with less income who do need to commute to work every day and run errands. It will be a long time before Tesla can support this group. They are mainly looking at collecting funds from those who can afford to join the EV country club.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    My estimation it will be 7, but perhaps if done really well, 8 times as safe as human drivers. His claim of 10 is pure hogwash. It will be 7. It must be a prime number.

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