That is a mis-statement from the Letter. It is actually incorrect to have a headline that is untrue and then 'qualify it" below in the details.
After the Sept burst of MS Vin #s the Oct rate has slowed back to near 130/day with near immediate Vin # after confirmation. It smells,of MX converts in Sept. MAybe euro MX holders needing a car by end of 2015 and Mx wouldn't deliver. It also looks like nobody will know refunding until Q4 ER in Feb of next year.
The headline in the document says tesla energy began in the gigafactory. Below it - says it began in Fremont and will move to the GF later. Headline itself could be picked up by algo trader bots and cause trade action.
They have overproduced by 1000+ in the last four quarters. Now, where are those cars? Are they staged for some year-end blow out somewhere? Denmark and other Euro countries? In a port in China?
Last four quarter numbers of cars produced minus sold is the following. To get to the number this year, they have filled pipeline "somewhere" or have overstated production.
Who can verify true production numbers? At the same time the Vin #s given out were even higher than this. Think back to Q3 of 2014 where they gave out over 3000 more Vin #s than produced. In Q3 of this year, 1600+ vin #s higher than production. Gapping Vin #s is one thing and sure, that is just data. But is it possible production numbers indicate some level of hoarding of cars or incredibly long transit times? Lossed cars due to problems off the line (ie. rebuilds) still counted as actual cars produced?
Tooling? What happened last summer in 2014 for the tooling needed for the Model X. I guess that wasn't really retooling but setting up a new line "said to be able to build Model X' last year but nothing happened until they retooled again in 2015 and spent more money to deliver 6 of them in Q3?
Strength of headline is being overshadowed by real people reading the financial numbers. A.P. appears higher yet again indicating by not paying bills, the loss can be managed to a "headline print".
Qtr Vins Built Sold Inventory_delta
Q1 9,272 7,535 6,457 1,078
Q2 9,178 8,763 7,579 1,184
Q3 10,435 7,200 7,785 -585
Q4 12,091 11,627 9,834 1,793
Q1 12,259 11,160 10,045 1,115
Q2 12,315 12,807 11,532 1,275
Q3 14,769 13,091 11,603 1,488
Where are all these extra cars??
Well looked and SCTY isn't "back" yet. The issue is to set the trading pps at a point of perceived value. Perception about some future market for stationary batteries or Model 3 or whatever is an impossible to judge valuation. So, it feeds the volatility and allows for manipulation based on story and hype. there'll be a loss - and perhaps some aftermarket trading swings but by morning, if news is not permanent, it'll open wherever "they" want it to.
A pps is primarily based on the last trade. If people are short, they are already in. Look at SCTY's recent tank and they walked it back up today. The company hasn't changed in 2 days. Big money doesn't care if TSLA has bad financials. They care about the "potential truth" of the story. And how can you dispute the truth when the story is always about "the future".
Good on ya. Buy us all a virtual beer... Remind me of the time I was 2 minutes late for entering a short position when it was right up there at 270 and since then I have been busy with other things (good market since August).
You really cannot trust any of these "analysts". Just develop your own due diligence and trust that. Usually it is more right than they are.
Only real bright spot is Denmark right now. Due to incentives running out during 2015, there is a scramble to get cars there now.
Coda is becoming one of the larger Stationary Storage companies working in the SGIP belt of CA.
If Tesla ends up teetz up - you end up with hundreds of "official analyst supporters" with mega-egg on their face. It's one of those too big to fail due to the amounts of face-saving necessary.
Oh wait - I am wrong. There is the Safe Harbor statements. So everyone can just say "well, we were wrong..."
I am wrong on the timings, but should say a majority hit the web between 3pm and 4pm today EST. Some of the now 53 units began being listed/re-listed this morning.
I have seen some listed on CPO indicate price declines from their original listing prices by as much as $12k for P85+ trying to move them since majority of people want D models.