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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1539 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Yet another VIN Update

    by temagami67 Apr 2, 2014 6:08 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 7:40 PM Flag

    HK buyers said there was word of two shipments. June and sometime later in the summer. The June shipment will be in the hundreds but more orders came in once the FTR give-away spurred interest.

  • There's a guy who posted:
    "Yes, had my retrofit on Monday. Everything is forward of battery pack. I do not have photos, but there is an excellent thread with photos on the TM Forum."

    If the protection is forward of the battery, then what stops something like the 3-ball piking event from resurfacing? Is there no real Ti shield applied over the aluminum plate as some suggested?

  • Reply to

    Yet another VIN Update

    by temagami67 Apr 2, 2014 6:08 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 6:15 PM Flag

    You think maybe they are pre-assigning Vin #s for China and UK builds? They did assign 10K during Q1.

  • Reply to

    here's my latest "guzzler killer" post....

    by flashrob Apr 2, 2014 11:54 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 12:08 PM Flag

    Not that many, only crazy CA commuters.

  • Reply to

    here's my latest "guzzler killer" post....

    by flashrob Apr 2, 2014 11:54 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 12:07 PM Flag

    BS on savings pay for the car. And you know it.

    Buy at $70K car and save from .02 to .09 per mile (depending on your electric prices) and how many miles does it take to "pay for the car"? Surely you are not suggesting a P85+ to save on gas and pay for the car but rather a base MS 60.

    People buy Leafs and Volts and can barely justify the per-mile savings to "pay for the car".

  • Reply to

    US Sales for Tesla Skyrocketing

    by doo_dilettante Apr 2, 2014 10:55 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Did you see the term "U.S. Mkt. Est.- same estimate insideevs web site used. This is under 4,000 for the quarter and if Europe lines up as expected, should be right about 6500 deliveries. Some guys still think that Vin # = delivery and one person on TMC thinks they sold 10,000 in Q1. Some are very confused.

  • Reply to

    Gonna let some of you on to a little secret

    by auctionmailbox Apr 2, 2014 10:35 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 11:06 AM Flag

    It is being built to low-ball the OEM input parts cost. It has no real benefit as a profit center - in fact it will probably be run very lean and tight so that no expenses are wasted. The goal is low battery cost. They will not be selling batteries to other buyers who already have their own suppliers. Right now, it is in design phase and was "put up" as mindshare collateral for 2.2B in bonds (which only $1B is deemed as "for the factory"). The rest is working capital going forward a couple years. They need to make sure they have enough capital to make it to 2017 because the Gen-III "requires" the battery plant. It is the same reason GM and F have their own engine plants and don't buy them from outside sources. They rarely sell engines to other automakers outside their sphere of ownership.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    Heading to the moot.

    Obviously, the 2012 backlog has been built and now it comes down to referral and mall sales. Asia and Norway are holding the water right now. Norway will probably outsell China this year.

  • Reply to

    US Sales for Tesla Skyrocketing

    by doo_dilettante Apr 2, 2014 10:55 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    And who came up with that number (insideevs?)

  • Reply to

    NEW MODEL S

    by dncnjsn Apr 2, 2014 10:59 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 11:00 AM Flag

    The SLNN stock symbol history (1yr) looks tragic.

  • Reply to

    Power for your house?

    by mdcrisis Apr 2, 2014 8:28 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 2, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    Google : V2H - Vehicle to Home

    It is about having an inverter, separate "critical circuits" and bypass switches. Generally, standby generators or hybrid renewable battery systems have this. I run an inverter off my Volt and can power various things. You need to know that 80kWh is "not that much" in terms of a long-term outage. Small homes, you may be good for a few days of critical circuits but it is far better to get a generator than rely on today's EV tech for powering a home during a power outage. In most cases, you don't "power your home" you "power some critical circuits" which are a subset of the entire home. You would have two or more breaker panels and new wiring to segregate what is necessary. You may elect to bypass powering high draw items like air conditioners.

  • Reply to

    dealershps?

    by one2question Apr 1, 2014 10:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 1, 2014 11:43 AM Flag

    Public charging is a cultural change that has not yet taken off. Either there needs to be thousands of SuperCharger sites ringing many cities and between them - or EVs have range-extenders, the EV "culture" will be a very small niche of the masses. It will grow but having places to plug in at baseball stadiums is 5-10 years away from "commonplace".

  • Reply to

    EU Sales update

    by temagami67 Mar 24, 2014 1:28 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 11:35 PM Flag

    Back in Q4 there was lag in time of order/confirm/Vin# assignment and delivery. Q1, all that went away for N.A. deliveries. I believe that the backlog existed to some extend in the US as more and more "stock winners" bought cars from late Sept. through Q4 and more in early q1. You can even see it in the reservation number spikes reported for Model X. The # of overall orders for MS based on US reservation numbers was well over 20,000 by early 2013. The total sold in the US was under 18K last year. I think they just blew through almost all confirmed cars and assigned all Vin #s to be built during Q2. Highest Vin # now should be just over #40,000 to end the quarter. It is commendable to hit this milestone but they did dole out Vin #s to people in early February and those cars are not built yet and again - they are for US delivery. Seems ridiculous to assign Vin #s long before production of the car.

    14Q2 Vin # assignment is the one thing that can indicate whether things are playing out nearly or exactly like I'd thought they were going to back in Sept. Where they would run down the backlog in the US and try to make up for it in Asia this year along with RHD delivery delays to focus on them when it came time. I think it was "we will build the backlog as fast as possible to appear to have a fast-growing demand. If we run it down to no backlog, it will then be a problem to address..." China, as always, is the wildcard. And with the General Manager leaving right now, I suspect their annual sales may just be roughly 4,000-5,000 there this year and he knew he couldn't deliver more. Wondering what comes next for Ms. Vu. Come on Norway.

    All these black-magic guesses could go away if they would be forthright and release the sales by region per quarter and a moderate breakdown of reservations. What it doesn't show are double-orders by someone booking a signature and production model X and who will pull one when it comes time. There are numerous ones of those.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 11:22 PM Flag

    A lot of rich people drive slowly. They've already proven their worth and want to enjoy life without risking others' lives.

  • Reply to

    EU Sales update

    by temagami67 Mar 24, 2014 1:28 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 6:41 PM Flag

    Don't forget the Model X orders could and do include a good number reserving both Signature and Production - to have all options at their disposal while giving Tesla a nice 0% loan in the process.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    He should be donating shares to hungry children and not helping to pay for yachts for wall street goons.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    If taken literally, since GAAP earnings are negative, the expansion to other countries just might double the negative earnings. What is 2 x -2?

  • Reply to

    general Manager Resigns in China

    by richardianseagraves Mar 31, 2014 12:14 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 5:43 AM Flag

    Usually a face saving situation.

  • Reply to

    Elon is about to pick the US tax payer pockets

    by mazdaki Mar 31, 2014 1:52 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 31, 2014 5:43 AM Flag

    The notes stipulate usage beyond the facyory and not exclusive use for the factory.

  • Reply to

    EU Sales update

    by temagami67 Mar 24, 2014 1:28 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 30, 2014 8:40 PM Flag

    Delivery times are WELL under 2 months except for Asia, UK (RHD), Australia and other spots in Europe. My graph of Vin # assignment through production complete has edged down to under 35 days. Trend of Confirmation to delivery day is about 50. And Vin # assignment is usually 1-2 days after confirmation now. I think there now is a growing body of inventory cars that people can order from as well. One TMC poster reported that they switched from a computer order (confirm 3/25) to 200-miles-old inventory car and will pick it up this week. Means it will be roughly $200 off list price since it was built in March and less than a month old.

    The factory is going to be producing something like 650-700/wk. As with most car companies, if they run down the orders they can do a 1-week shutdown first week of each quarter as is somewhat typical. At least first week of July would be scheduled. They seem to have exhausted the US backlog - but how long will it be to exhaust the Euro-Pac backlog?

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