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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1001 posts  |  Last Activity: 8 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    The concerted effort to squash Tesla...

    by dixiesone Nov 23, 2014 7:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    The best renewable is conservation. Renewables cannot run life at the consumption scale we live with now in the western world. Nuclear is the safest and cleanest energy source on the grand scale. We just cannot use light water reactors like at Fukushima and out them on active fault zones. New forms of nuclear will be utilized. Along with government-forced renewable projects. Obama signed the 20 by 2020 requirement with the DOI. Zoning government land for 20 GW of renewables by 2020. That is not 24 hour output but rather nameplate max output. Nothing like a base load plant. 20GW of renwables puts out an equivallent of approximately 3GW baseload plant complex. Thousands of acres to make what maybe two nuclear plants could.

    A good read is the monthly magazine Solar Industry which has a web presence too.

  • The SCE Tehachapi project is now open. 32 MWh in size, uses 608,832 LG chem prismatic cells. Same cells as in the Chevy Volt.

  • Reply to

    The concerted effort to squash Tesla...

    by dixiesone Nov 23, 2014 7:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 8:04 PM Flag

    That is what psychologists call "victim mentality". We have been given a huge "gift" in terms of the energy contained in oil over the last 150 years. We were able to use it for convenience, products, services, to build a world economy and to build a world population up from 1 billion to 7 billion all on the back of oil.

    Solar cannot do this nor can it replace oil in any meaningful way. Oil will run out. The problem is we cannot easily tell people this because they cannot comprehend life without it and wouldn't believe it.

    Charging losses from solar - to batteries - to car would be upwards of 50% from the power output from the modules. Throw a cloudy day in there and you lose miles. An 8kW array can put out 50 kWh on a good day. How many family miles does a home drive per day? Three drivers of 30 miles each in winter need about 16 stored battery kWh each. There, you use up one good sunny day's energy. To setup a good 8kW array and 100 kWh battery set, you will need close to $50K of money. Cash that most families do not have.

    The only real long term successful solution for solar is vast utility-scale solar arrays and battery systems within the grid at mass scale. Homeowners with their own solar and batteries is far to expensive a proposition for a typical family of four with an income of $60K or less per year. The government money funding 30% of solar installations, SRECs and net-metering are all at-risk and may go away.

    The future is safe, next-generation nuclear power. Whether it is Thorium or new-forms of reactors. I have solar and I know for sure how limiting it really is. It feels good to have it. Life on a mass scale does not work on a feel-good basis. It works on an industrial-managed, mature and scalable solution.

  • Reply to


    by crocster55 Nov 22, 2014 5:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 1:05 PM Flag

    Bod does not sign financial documents. They attend meetings and agree with chairmen and CEO plans. Then get paid in stock and cash for doing so. This is how boards work. One company I worked for at one time had a CEO who would not let employees talk to board members. That company is bk. Was a public company too.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    After the truck factory in Texas is done.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 11:26 AM Flag

    17 last month, per ev-sales blog

  • Reply to

    Gigafactory....... the ticking bomb!

    by keefwotgetsaround Nov 23, 2014 4:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 11:05 AM Flag

    I wrote here maybe a year ago that VW was looking like it could eventually surpass Nissan/Renault as world leader in electric vehicle production quantity and unit sales by maybe 2017-2018 or so. This investment indicates they want to. They have spoken publicly about doing so. Depends on when 200-mile battery packs drop below $190/kWh. Nissan only has the two models and Renault has a few as well.

  • Reply to

    Gigafactory....... the ticking bomb!

    by keefwotgetsaround Nov 23, 2014 4:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 10:59 AM Flag

    The one unshown card excuse for Q4 is this. People with S85 orders who chose to switch to S85D orders and cannot produce them until Q1. Meaning "we have strong demand for S85D and saw a lot of switching going on after the Oct.10 announcement and these orders have to wait for our new 188hp motors to come in fromour Taiwan supplier." Fukuta Motors is located in Taiwan and is the exclusive motor supplier to Tesla.


    CSC of Taiwan Buys Stake in Fukuta to Strength Ties with Tesla Motors
    Through buying stake in Fukuta Elec. & Mach. Co., Ltd., a Taiwan-based motor manufacturer and exclusive supplier to Tesla Motors, a California-headquartered electric vehicle maker, Taiwan's China Steel Corp. (CSC), the island's largest steelmaker by size, looks to strengthen ties with the American EV maker to profit from the business.

    Not long ago, CSC announced its NT$352 million (US$11.73 million) reinvestment in Fukuta for a 25.3% stake to become the latter's largest shareholder, basing its decision not just because Fukuta has been a major customer of electrical steel sheets since 2007, but also the exclusive motor supplier for Tesla Motors.

    Since starting to supply its first motor for the Tesla S, the world's first fully electric sportster in 2008, Fukuta has become increasingly known for excellent capabilities, with its annual turnover likely to exceed NT$1.2 billion (US$40 million) this year and its motor shipments to reach 50,000 units and then double to 100,000 units in 2015.

    To keep up with brisk shipment growth, Fukuta has started up its brand new NT$300 million (US$10 million) factory with output of 300,000 motors a year, with plans to invest NT$1 billion (US$33.33 million) to set up a bigger plant within three years, a positive indicator that drives CSC to buy majority stake in Fukuta through its subsidiary to reinforce business ties.

    CSC's chairman, J.C. Tsou, said earlier that Fukuta is a very important customer of his company's electrical steel sheets and has great growth potential, which CSC has decided to help maximize with the stake purchase, whose capital would also help greatly enhance production capacity and capabilities.

    Tsou also confirmed that CSC had just sent its high-ranking executives to the U.S. to visit Tesla Motors to further cement cooperation, believing the tri-party partnership to see positive results in the future. Worth mentioning is that CSC has also teamed up with Japan's Panasonic to construct a large battery factory in Nevada, indicative of its ambition to narrow ties with Tesla Motors.

    Actively expanding business scope and improving operational efficiency, CSC scored consolidated revenue and net profits of NT$347.828 billion (US$11.594 billion) and NT$15.981 billion (US$532.7 million), respectively, last year. (SC)

  • Reply to

    Audi EV

    by go4erthegold Nov 23, 2014 9:43 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 23, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    One thing I notice about P85D orders. Many existing P85 owners are buying them as trade in or adding to their garage. There seems to be a general limited audience for quite expensive electric cars. I will coin a term now. thrillectric.

    Thrillectric - electric cars that primarily sold on their basis of acceleration to people who judge a car value highly on the 0-60 times available through high power propulsion. Costs are usually high.

    Yes, there are literally millions of millionaires in the USA. However, the banter on TMC is usually about what kind of financing people got when buying. Stretching to buy. One guy says the depreciation he expected on day one after pick up is worth more than any car he has had before.

    Rich people will buy teslas. As cheap used versions in 3 years. Not new. Leave it up to those who mortgage their futures to have the latest thing. The Thrillectric. Only $1200-1400 per month.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 6:38 PM Flag

    On the bright side, very few Bhopal repeats.

  • Reply to

    SEC filings

    by edep1234 Nov 22, 2014 3:21 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 5:10 PM Flag

    If the SEC took their jobs seriously, wall street couldn't operate as it does.

  • Reply to

    Germany ==== total silence

    by kbodie77777 Oct 14, 2014 8:50 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 5:05 PM Flag

    Germany for October

    1 Smart Fortwo ED 263
    2 Renault Zoe 178
    3 BMW i3 133
    4 Volkswagen e-Up! e) 120
    5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV 89
    6 Nissan Leaf 74
    7 Tesla Model S 17

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 5:02 PM Flag

    Consider what happens with a puncture of a battery in a large renewable battery storage system in the back room of a company. See what happens. They will have to place standby batteries within a contained room to limit insurance issues. This is why many Asian standby battery systems use LiFEPO4 - these do not burn when punctured.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

  • Reply to

    Chart looking Bearish for Tesla

    by edep1234 Nov 22, 2014 1:16 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 1:28 PM Flag

    In feb 2014, the discussion of releasing the AWD Model S was to happen around the time of the Model X reveal and sales began. Now, how do you get customers spun up sooner? Make the MS have dual motors now. The D reveal was to gen up sales sooner. And it worked brilliantly, with P 85 and 85+ owners selling them months after full price purchase to pay full price again on the latest and greatest. You generate new sales by going back to your verdant fans and asking for more support. The hidden question is how many are buying it? Orders mid November got vin numbers same day or next day and delivery promise end of December. Meaning, we just see the end of USA backlog for the P85D very soon once December passes. Once people get them, maybe their friends buy them.

    Can you imagine if they introduced the D as coming summer 2015 rather than December 2014? They needed the Model X to start shipping in Spring 2015. It was cheaper to push out an AWD Model S. And why not, just make it 691 hp and throw some g forces for some excitement. Speed thrills. And costs money.

    One cool benefit was showing AWD does not reduce range when a third differential is not in use. Unlike ICE. This shows that it will be similar to repeat at many other auto makers out there to make their next gen larger CUV and SUV models, thanks Tesla.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 1:03 PM Flag

    And during bond issuances, they paid huge sums for financing them and hedging them. More in hedging than earned in zEv credits. Will AP grow to $1B by year end?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 12:38 PM Flag

    in a few cases, same car, same Vin #, start of Oct - Start of Nov. same cars there. They have sold some, but a few still remain. With the RWD discounting, they are finding buyers. As they can also truck them anywhere in the region who has access to the inventory book. I would bet some fantastic deals to be had late December. The biggest importance this quarter is the size of the perceived sales count. The need is to get cars out there for friends and family and co worker owner advertising. Big number more important than profits, obviously.

  • Reply to

    My first stock short ever

    by tab3317 Nov 22, 2014 11:56 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 12:28 PM Flag

    And to let you know too, I do have small personal positions in WPX, PSX, APC, ARLP and watch the EV market closely. It is slow growing of course and we need base fuels on a constant basis as our population grows. But do not underestimate the sharks here as there are many who are involved in this equity who are similar to those who pushed BLDP and FCEL back in 2001. It will eventually end but don't count out their influence. You could walk into a Whole Foods any day and look,at the prices and say " why would people pay this much for food? ". Well, because they are fools is the answer but they are also a different sort of people who somehow make it work. Many people think paying more for something makes it more valuable and satisfying. Red Roof or Grand Hyatt? Both have a bed.

    Oil is flat and I do worry that we are now seeing a battle of wits between the OPeC nations and our own needs and interests. Geo Political storm done on the trading floors. Has been an amazing two weeks in oil lately.

    I like renewables too. I think there is a day in the future, maybe 100 years, where we need more renewables. But oil is just too easy for mankind not to use and use up as fast as it is. We are a dumb species as a whole. The pump is just too convenient. And most consumers are too stubborn or just too poor to afford to buy into any other fuels as their base personal fuel choice.

  • Reply to

    My first stock short ever

    by tab3317 Nov 22, 2014 11:56 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    are you selling 10 2016 Jan Calls with strike $40? There is only 1 open interest there now. If there is a market there will be a buyer.

    If you are certain of your view, what about just buying 20 $150 same date puts instead? Relatively cheap. Bigger payoff if you really think it is headed to $40 by 2016. Your view is not shared by the market as there is very little action deep ITM on leaps. You can get hurt badly by the call sale if pps goes up and very lightly by the put buy if it goes up.

    My only advise is to talk with a broker to discuss risk. The market goes to where there is the most open interest. It avoids long shot home runs. Most professional options trading is done OTM. Be very careful. I have experience losing money in this because there are far more forces at work than just rational valuation.

  • Reply to

    Volkswagen investments make Tesla seem silly

    by bwillis1701 Nov 22, 2014 11:34 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 22, 2014 11:58 AM Flag

    They have yet to make 33K cars a year. Maybe next year they will surpass 45K.

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