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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1114 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    INTERESTING READ ...about a TESLA TRIP in CHINA...

    by flashrob Jun 26, 2015 7:17 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 26, 2015 7:24 AM Flag

    You said: THIS WOULD BE A GOOD IDEA "HERE IN THE U.S." AND ALSO IN EUROPE

    I suppose you have not yet heard of PlugShare. So, check into that.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 26, 2015 7:20 AM Flag

    tema, in my data, 16 days from confirm to delivery has two entries, one with 18. all california and two were July delivery estimates moved back to June. I guess making the number still was important.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    new record for CA buyer:
    Confirm 6/14/2015 vin# 9409x 6/30/2015 delivery scheduled. 16 days from confirm to delivery.
    Was originally a July delivery date.

  • Reply to

    continue

    by man711 Jun 25, 2015 10:24 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 10:35 AM Flag

    I always hated the lemmings analogy. In fact, when filing the movie White Wilderness, the Disney-Produced crew members were filming the "jumping lemmings" by pushing by a rotating platform off the cliff. It was a ruse. It's in the Wiki regarding White Wilderness.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    No, Lemond knew of the doping and the "pumping" that was going on and recently said that the demise of Armstrong was good for the sport of cycling. Wall street doing any "pumping" or "valuation doping" lately? 2008? 2000? I sense a cycle. Or cycling analogy coming on.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 10:02 AM Flag

    Greg Lemond bashed Lance Armstrong even early on during his first couple of wins.
    And today, the only multi-time Tour de France winner from the USA to-date is Greg Lemond.

  • Reply to

    BC Come On Into Fantasyland

    by oil_philter Jun 23, 2015 2:03 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 7:22 AM Flag

    Take note:

    JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) is in talks with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to settle a probe by the agency on whether the bank inappropriately advised its private-banking clients toward its own investment products, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

  • Reply to

    Bolt

    by dustycowboy711 Jun 25, 2015 7:12 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 7:21 AM Flag

    Maybe it was directed at Volt owners. In the first couple years, it was said that the average income of a Volt buyer was $175K. That is elite to most Americans who have a much lower average income.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 6:24 AM Flag

    Here's one for $2400 discount.

    Ordered 6/12/15 Delivery 6/26/15
    Inventory 8313x Model S 70D - 50 Miles
    Showroom Discount ($2,400)

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 6:20 AM Flag

    Regarding your 17% going to the ether, this is what you are talking about from Q4 13 onward. Why pump Vin #s? Is it because they know that that is the only number people on the outside can actually see on a timely basis?

    qtr Vins built
    Q4 6,900 6,587
    Q1 9,272 7,535
    Q2 9,178 8,763
    Q3 10,435 7,200*
    Q4 12,091 11,627
    Q1 12,259 11,160

    The big month was August 2014 when 4639 were issued and then they knew they would be giving rights to convert to D orders when October 10th came around to anyone with an unbuilt (and built) Vin #. The idea was that if a customer car was built, they could sell it off a sales lot if the customer ordered a 2nd D model.

    *7200 was verbal and not printed in a 10-K. Who's to say they built that many in actuality? Then they had to "reveal the D" and that boosted sales again. A standard P85+ was not insane enough to churn buyers. Nobody was trading in a S85 for a P85 or P85+. But heck, they'd do that for a P85D and the new insane mode. Or a almost-as-fast S85D from their "basic" S85 which many called the "best car in the world". Musk was smart - knew those with the means would keep buying new models while also attracting "followons".

  • Reply to

    China === pure silence

    by kbodie77777 Jun 24, 2015 10:38 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 6:10 AM Flag

    Forbes article out yesterday:

    "GM already has a bevy of Bolt prototypes up and running, according to a report at SlashGear, which cites “50-something.” Meanwhile, Pam Fletcher, Chief Engineer for Electrified Vehicles at GM, went beyond the EV for the “masses” statement and said that the Bolt isn’t just for the “elite,” according to Green Car Reports "

  • Reply to

    Elon Musk: Good Vision, Bad Math On Tesla

    by pittyfuk Jun 24, 2015 10:42 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 25, 2015 6:08 AM Flag

    32,000? Let's be factual and state 31,655 as the correct number.

  • Reply to

    BC Come On Into Fantasyland

    by oil_philter Jun 23, 2015 2:03 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:51 PM Flag

    If he was smart and invested in some of the bigger, return-seeking mutual funds - he would have been in all of them. I am. They have done well. It is like Pete Rose batting results and not Barry Bonds (singles versus HRs). Both end up with success but swinging for the fences does and can always lead to trouble even on small misses.

    I feel that some of these names are Lance Armstrong stocks. Doped to all high heaven and big winners. And you know the rest of the story.

  • Reply to

    BC Come On Into Fantasyland

    by oil_philter Jun 23, 2015 2:03 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    Asking someone to participate in an equity trade is actually giving financial advice and perhaps is not legal in the USA under SEC laws.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:46 PM Flag

    clarification: "RHD D models is very high" meaning, the wait time is very high, not essentially the backlog which is not anything like the US backlog got to with LHD D models, obviously. RHD D is Australia (hundreds), Hong Kong (hundreds) and UK (hundreds). California is buying perhaps 800+ LHD D models per month now or more.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:44 PM Flag

    You may agree that guidance is really a "I hope we hit that number" type of guidance and has nothing to do with existing order bookings other than Model X which is a known backlog. Current orders are almost going into production a few days after confirmation. US Backlog is low, while euro and especially RHD D models is very high - due to whatever engineering issue that they told customers a few months ago (seems to be nothing to do with "high order rate of RHD D" because at least one customer was told something else by their DS). If everything is based on opinion, hear say and hype, then the only real truth is whatever they put up for numbers at the end of a quarter. Everything else is "open promises".

    I hope to continue to do more truth-seeking analysis but am finally out of all holdings of TSLA and it feels good to be turning away from the "apostles of greed" that run this thing.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    I think inventory is a must, a huge must, for growth. They need cars lined up and people can kick some tires and test-drive-and-buy-today. That is how it has worked over the decades. And, since inventory appears to offer "salesperson discretion" in offering a bit of a discount to move them - it looks like the good old bartering is back to try to get the best price. Last week of the quarter always the best for best deals.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Actually, the more tema and others (like me) talk about Vins, the less likely the buyers will want to share them. But vanity likes a mirror and thus people love to discuss when they order, when their cars are built, etc. It is a form of bravado. And right now, I have 1450 customer line items (Vin #s) tracked since mid 2013 and could match up with tema pretty well and I tend to agree with his analysis. But the trade is not about that, it is about 2020 or some other hyperbole factor.

  • Reply to

    S70D Inventory Car

    by temagami67 Jun 24, 2015 9:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 12:51 PM Flag

    Of course, they don't discount. Unless they do. And there is no inventory. Unless there is.

  • Reply to

    China === pure silence

    by kbodie77777 Jun 24, 2015 10:38 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jun 24, 2015 12:31 PM Flag

    Speaking of silence, spent some time talking to my local Chevy sales rep guy. He attended a dealership drive-and-plan event last week - and got to drive a Bolt pre-production model. (not a Volt) He wouldn't give me the time frame, they are keeping it quiet for now. Also, some new concept models were shown that we don't yet know about. Enjoy.

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