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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1504 posts  |  Last Activity: 11 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Euphoria here

    by cybercrash28 Apr 29, 2015 5:52 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 5:56 PM Flag

    Will it be during the regular session or a gapper?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 5:27 PM Flag

    Those were the Beta systems. Pricing of the "real thing" is yet to come but I think the $1500 is the up front Plus you have a monthly fee of $15 to 20, give or take. There is a possibility they will upsell the value and try to get more from lessees now that it is "production". Also, it will be offered with discounts if you are buying a new Solar City solar pv system + battery (versus battery alone). I think they will do that so as to combine the site work, permits and labor into one package rather than needing a 2nd permit and extra labor planning.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    I actually think LA pricing for the better brands ends up being about 2/3 that of that pretty good LiFEPO4 sets and maybe 1/2 that of Tesla. Thing is - if you need to do load shaving daily, you need batteries that can go with 4000-6000 cycles. LA isn't going that route - but good LiFEPO4 can. I can't afford them but A123 cells would have offered 8000 daily 1C cycles with 80% capacity after those cycles. LiFEPO4 is being used heavily in China - they use Li-Ion Poly blends (like in Teslas and Volts, etc.) for RC cars and other small solutions. I don't think they want batteries which can "vent with flame" in their homes. LiFEPO4 do not vent with flame when punctured or accidentally overcharged by a faulty BMS.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Compact Power? They are made by LG Chem, in the plant in Michigan. Same plant that made the cells for the largest grid-storage battery in the nation - the 32 MWh battery at SCE. Same cells as in the Volt Gen 1.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 5:16 PM Flag

    I can have the same solution put in place for $12,000 (without incentive) using a Schneider Conext XW+ and four 200Ah LiFEPO4 batteries in series with a small BMS management system keeping them balanced. just under 10kWh. Can do load shaving, all that stuff. This is nothing new. But it may be slightly smaller than a setup of LiFEPO4 batteries (which offer 90% capacity even at 0*F) You don't need an elaborate BMS like you do for 900+ individual 18650 cells.

    The "gotcha" is the lease-wrapper that they can offer in California where you don't get to see the $8760 in CA State incentives passed your way, you lease the battery from Solar City who then pays Tesla whatever offers a bookable gross margin - and both companies work in tandem to collect the CA State incentives while making it look "cheap" for the buyer through a lease program. The CA SGIP program didn't see such a drop in cell-pricing coming when the sytem was built and spec'd. At least they have started to drop the per-W incentive somewhat, but it is still too high for the A.E.S. series of products thus allowing Tesla to garner their 40% of the state budget of SGIP for themselves.

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 1:37 PM Flag

    Would you rather invest in a kitchen or a delivery driver?

  • Reply to

    Strong Dollar will crush sales to Europe

    by bwillis1701 Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 1:07 PM Flag

    IB wouldn't let this slide that far without a huge Samsung or TWTR-like smash in earnings. The story will be kept alive until Model 3 comes out. With Model X, story is "busy" in the fall. They could run the factory hard into December and get 8000-11000+ sold this year. I mean come on - the factory was "retooled" for Model X in August of last year - it will be one year since re-tooling soon. Couldn't they have retooled in early January of 2015? I guess the delay in mid-year last year was to prepare for the D model in October.

    I may short 2016 LEAP puts after earnings. But already have shorted 120 and 140 short 2017 puts and am thinking of closing them out next week for a few-dollar gain so far. They are a slow-boat to success - but usually do work out as a side-project to more near-term short options.

  • Reply to

    Attn: Trip Chowdry

    by futurecartsla Apr 29, 2015 12:46 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    What, is he saying there is a market for one million 15KW home systems? Where, in California? Nationally? Worldwide? There might be if the price was just slightly above that of a generator - and if it were sold and not leased (and yet still carry a 10 year warranty). In markets without TOU peak/offpeak rate differentials of .10/kWh - it doesn't make any more economic sense than a 4000W - 6500W generator.

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:40 PM Flag

    Heat is a very troublesome issue in line-loss. So. California has issues during 100-120*F days but try to make these folks realize they live in an arid desert condition with synthetic water supply and power systems and they will turn away and go see their therapist because someone made them feel bad.

    Underground power cables would help a lot in many cases - whether removal of eye-sore overhead lines to keeping the lines cool and flowing more power. Running 27KV underground is not exactly a safe thing.

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:37 PM Flag

    This is new - someone who is an EV advocate calling the grid bad... When are the cult meetings again?

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:20 PM Flag

    That doesn't seem correct at all. Voltage is potential and is based on the local transformer taking the high voltage line down to two legs of 120V each. If the HV line drops in voltage, the local transformer will drop in transformed voltage.

    So, you saying your home has a sine wave between 110 and 130 V? Don't tell your electronics equipment suppliers about that wild fluctuation, they might void the warranty.

    Google this: r19243453-Normal-voltage-range-of-an-outlet-
    top article.

  • Reply to

    Strong Dollar will crush sales to Europe

    by bwillis1701 Apr 29, 2015 9:45 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:08 PM Flag

    Tesla staff in Norway advised of a soon-to-arrive 7-8% price increase.

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:06 PM Flag

    AC System - gee, I wonder who could have invented the whole AC system anyway? I bet it was a guy who died broke and alone in a NYC hotel.

  • Reply to

    SGIP waitlisting

    by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 7:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    120V at my house. I wonder why folks call it 110V - is there a power shortage somewhere?

  • Reply to

    Musk is a Cult leader

    by senespera_mallongaj Apr 28, 2015 7:13 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    Cult leader as well. Daily, people bow to the great Steve Jobs by staring into their cell phones all day long. The internet didn't entirely take our collective minds until we could access it fully 24x7 using phones. Our highly connected kids will have no marketable skills other than thumb movements.

  • Reply to

    Norway news

    by jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 8:21 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 8:36 AM Flag

    One car not sold equates to one 100KW storage system based on the eligible costs in recent projects added to the CA SGIP which show 2015 entries showing $100K eligible costs for a 100KW system. Any dip in car sales must be made-up with aggressive storage sales. If 100KW systems are really $100K (government line items) - why are 5KW home systems booked as eligible costs of $23,000 ? Older 100KW systems show as $155K and as much as $351K back in 2013,2014. If systems are really $100K - margins will be falling but for a box of batteries - still is possibly a higher gross margin than a car. When they tout high gross margins for battery storage, then we know that the industry itself is "ripe for the picking" (stating high margins equates to being over-priced for the good or service supplied). Economically, the lower the storage price, the more commercial buyers and home buyers will line-up. Government buyers? They'll pay anything. Look at downtown Stockton, CA for how a government can spend their tax dollars to excess. Maybe Stockton is willing to buy a few 1000KW units?

    How many systems will the battery storage business really require per-year? hundreds (per the CA SGIP) or thousands (if you multiply up to get 1000KW and 3000KW systems)? With the high quantity of competitive companies, margins will perhaps vary and be pressured by competitive system pricing.

    Someone needs to provide a revenue-to-Tesla number from Solar City for 5KW and 100KW systems. The larger 500KW, 1000KW and larger systems are outliers and sales of those will be far fewer. Big money per-project - but there are limits to very large systems. And there is already waitlisting going on for California projects in the SGIP. Without flowing incentives, some projects will be held or cancelled. You can see in the CA SGIP data that hundreds of Tesla (and many other vendors') projects (5KW and many larger) have been cancelled through the past few years.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 8:21 AM Flag

    Appears that talk on the tesla motors club board today indicates that Tesla employees told customers that a 7-8% price increase is right around the corner. In thread "EU Market Situation and Outlook"

  • Reply to

    Musk is a Cult leader

    by senespera_mallongaj Apr 28, 2015 7:13 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 29, 2015 6:02 AM Flag

    Will there be Tesla reading rooms? Why is the waiting room at my local shop able to seat over 10 people?

  • Reply to

    Introducing the All-Wheel Drive Model S 70D

    by temagami67 Apr 27, 2015 2:32 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 10:25 PM Flag

    One post today said his 70D was in production. They held off building 70D for customers for a couple weeks here. Unlike 85D which was from Oct 10 to Feb 2nd. I think about 65% of the line items i have since Apr 8 are 70D with a good number saying they changed from 85D down to 70D for savings. To buy a home battery, I guess.

    I will bring my monthly Vin issuances and we can compare. Lets show data back to Jan 2014. But we cannot really show where the 5000 spare Vins went for 2014.

    Did you notice the one item from today about a guy saying his auto confirm was May 3rd up and coming but already had a Vin # as of today? Are they giving Vin #S to all orders even before confirmation? That would explain some of the 2014 overage, if people cancelled before their two weeks were up. This year, it is 7 days. If all orders are given a vin number even if they cancel...shenanigans.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Apr 28, 2015 4:52 PM Flag

    I just read this today. Shocking and a bit strange.

    Colorado allows used plug-in cars brought into the state (Tesla, Volt, Leaf, etc.) to be registered into the state and then GET THE $6000 State EV tax credit. Oh my. Buy a used Volt for $15,000 from out of state, register it in-state and you are good to go. Even cars that got other states' incentives (like IL or PA or GA) and the federal tax credit. The other states like IL require purchase of the car new in the state. GA and PA allowed leases to get their credits until they pulled the lease option and went with purchase only.

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