Electricity is skyrocketing in Germany because of the renewables. So, they perhaps need to cull 10-15% of that power in charging round-trip losses, if not more, and then require even more renewables to make up for it.
Dateline - February 2014. "We need 2.2 Billion dollars. We intend to scrape the desert and build a small version of something we think we may need some day."
Next - use up that 2.2 Billion in normal daily operations.
Solution - "new factory = new reason to get more money for next year."
They said they would hit 35k last year all the way to the hour before the Q3 ER release where they reduced it to 33k and eventually sold a truthful 31655. Now, why "must" they sell 50k? Just repeat last year's mantra about vacations and slow down the Model X and say they "could have"...
20% was the rumor earlier in 2015 to restart the market. I suspect they could dump RWD there at some good discounting to make it appear demand is big. China dumped many products in the USA, why not the other way around?
I think it is a coin-flip whether they ramp now or ramp later. They do need to ramp at some point. But the conversion rate of the Signature models is any indication, you would think people may just end up waiting on Model 3 - aren't they "introducing it" in March 2016? It'll be 1/2 the cost of the Model X - why not just wait?
I see he is VERY green (sheesh). Had a Fisker Karma for a while. Maybe a few private planes? Flying commercial is far greener when you "share the burn".
If they deliver, it will lower the Customer Reservations line item in the ER. So, delaying until Jan 1st for deliveries is in their best interest. I thought October 1st was in their best interest - but interests change.
Bunch added today and many look like high mileage company cars and loaners. I did mention I thought they will try to list many old cars which have not been titled even if they have higher mileage just to do as much as possible to make the number. Go take a look. I expect the web site units are a small amount and you can ask for more info on inventory in your region. Welcome to Tesloytathon.
No, it is to assimilate product buyers. I met a guy, in his mid 60s, back 14 months ago at the local Tesla sales and service center. Was more adamant than Ron Baron about how Musk is changing the world. If you don't have a "superhero" as a CEO then the car is just a car. But if you convince wealthy people you are buying products from the next Steve Jobs, you have a convincing argument that buying the product is the right move for them. The guy had a roadster and also a Model S and said he had an order in for an MX.
Musk invents during interviews and press releases. By acting like he is working on something and tossing a few drawings out there, he makes people think he is doing something. Research how he became a "founder" of Tesla.
The stunt they pulled in 2014 in October should be added to your list of stunts. With RWD slowing down in orders, it was either go into price-decline or "Reveal the D". And, with D you can ramp up the HP. So, personal roller coasters were made and they got things rolling (pun intended) at a faster pace again. Without D and the hot-shot high HP models, sales in 2015 would have been similar to 2014 - mid 30k to 40k range. People got a shot in the arm to trade in and trade-up to the D and Insane and now Ludicrous mode. The model X would have been delayed whether or not they revealed the D. How many RWD orders are coming in now? Maybe 9 to 10% of overall demand? The D saved the company, pretty much. Saved to live another day and do another stock issuance back this summer. They're going to need new stunts going into 2016 to prepare for more growing interest. I just don't know if they can add more HP, offer a lower price unit (60? 50?) or other changes to the same design sedan.
I wouldn't be surprised if they drop prices substantially in lieu of losses. A story came out recently from Barclays talking about Telsa needing to spend something like $11 Billion in the next few years.
I have said here many times. To build a car company with a 1 million unit per year run rate, you must invest 10x that number. $10 Billion. It is coming true. Why didn't Lutz say something like that when he was interviewed for the movie "Revenge of the Electric Car"? It can be plainly seen that in today's economy, unless you are using cheap labor in places like China with fewer regulations - a USA-based car company wanting to generate consumer-level volume must spend like crazy.
montana - Temagami67 and I have done a far better job in estimating car sales of this company than the CEO has done. Not sure that is worth a cookie or not. But for putting forth "too high" guidance numbers for a couple years, someone is lofted as the next Steve Jobs. Interesting.
Actually - I have to think that there may be another tweet coming regarding some end of year "incentive" to move inventory and that good amounts of inventory will be allocated for eager buyers. Notice that the ev-cpo consolidator site picked up those big changes after market close on Friday? There is inventory out there - but where is it? Isn't it up to nearly 7000 units right now when subtracting sold from produced since day 1? Maybe more?
I'd buy a new 70D for $50k if offered to me. That's the value I give it over comparable plug-ins. I just don't see "paying more" and then being limited to a charging leash. You can get a base 2016 Volt (no leash) for $32K now and drive anywhere using the regular gas range extender while driving locally possibly entirely on electricity in between long trips.
The ev-cpo web site now shows a new block of 42 Inventory cars put up yesterday. Sort by Vin # and you can see that they are sequential, at times. I saw similar inventory appearing last Q4 at my own location. I am sure it is tip of the iceberg and inventory may exist at sales sites and in-transit for the next few weeks.
32 new CPO also put up - many just relisted, so they are not "new CPO inventory" but cycled on the web site.
Actually no. The prediction was to end the 2015 calendar year at a "run rate" of an "annualized" 100k per year. that means if they sell 2000 cars in the last week of the year, they make that claim become true.
Kinda. If you have a Vin # and can register it then you can "sell" it to a prospective buyer and exchange funds. I have to wonder if the car must physically exist and be inspected in person and signed off on. Maybe it is just a bunch of paperwork. But you do need a VIN to register a car. We don't know the laws to know for sure.
However, Temagami67 can corroborate with me that Vin # "ramp" in September happened prior to the Model X reveal. The story was that Model S orders increased after the Model X reveal but I see the numbers being ramped earlier in September and not after the event.