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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 713 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Updated Guidance at ER

    by temagami67 Aug 5, 2015 11:38 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    At least they had the integrity to alter guidance. Someone is paying attention to the fact that others are.payog attention. still sticking with under 50000 for the year. More like 48750 or so.

  • Reply to

    unchanged.Option traders in red

    by mgvidpro Aug 5, 2015 4:22 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 4:25 PM Flag

    You mean vol-crush? Of course. Sellers of options usually do best.

  • Reply to


    by td5221 Aug 5, 2015 4:11 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 4:24 PM Flag

    May open 266 tomorrow. They want to crush the volatility premium. Also, there's got to be some dilution coming in the near term. Capital will need to be raised. I have no position going into ER. Want to see what shenanigans they are up to.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    Remember they also have been said to have utilized a 20% discounting sale for some older RWD sitting in China.

  • Reply to

    Model S production capacity?

    by geeksonpatrol Aug 5, 2015 11:43 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 1:00 PM Flag

    They say they can do 2000/wk by year's end (barring macroeconomic factors). You would think that the numbers would be going "up" and they are slightly going up now with the new 90D and Ludicrous modes for early August. But I have seen some strange numbering schemes in the Vin #s issued and it looks like they were trying to line up today with Vin # 100,000 for the Earnings release. Last year they gave out over 40976 vin #s, built 35125 cars and sold 31655. Vin #s are not a clean way to judge things.

    However, the rate of Vin # given out was well under 1000/wk.

    Vin #s per month
    May 4,537
    June 3,804
    July 3,479

  • Reply to

    seems like $266 is the magic number

    by td5221 Jun 24, 2015 11:46 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 10:10 AM Flag

    266 is something that lines up pretty well with the prior 2.2B bond offering pps. Other than that, it reminds me of the pumps that LNKD endured twice and got whacked again a 2nd time this past earnings. TSLA does not get whacked due to the level of shoring and funds holding it. TSLA may only go down if they change guidance. And you know that goes. With the "great unknown" of Model X production that could make or break the year, they cannot change guidance because they "just don't know". They will also say they hit Vin # 100,000 today - how they did it is in question (I think they actually adjusted daily Vin # starting values on a few days recently to line it up - my speculation but not unlike other similar vin # antics done in the past).

    Last year, they knew easily by July if they would hit 35,000 but didn't change guidance until first week of November, changing it to 33,000 and then sold 31,655. Basically, they are setting up the stock to go sideways into Q3 earnings but that is when MX will be produced at-volume and then unless Model S orders tank, the window of 49-55k sales is still a possibility if Q4 is a super-ramp into 2k per week. They can produce 2K MX in Q4 or 1K each of MS + MX. it's to unknown and that causes the volatility. Longs probably get a break today and offers funds a reprieve again to look at what may happen later in the year. Teflon continues.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 10:05 AM Flag

    Thank you. Try the veal.

  • Reply to

    Customer Satisfaction: Tesla vs Nissan Leaf.

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 10:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 5, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    You have to control the market with inventory not yet visible (which is inventory management).

    37 more CPO came up since yesterday on Tesla's CPO sales page. Mostly in San Francisco and a few in San Diego and Chicago. This coincides with the article yesterday about "new type of buyer buying Tesla CPOs". Well coordinated. I just wonder how many more they have in-stock that are not yet up for sale yet.

    It's amazing the press Tesla gets for things like their CPO program. The number transacted per week seems to be in the range of 20-30 - Nationally. About 480 last quarter. Yet the average CPO program at a BMW or Mercedes dealership may sell a few per week as well. A national program doing what a few dealerships do locally is really worthy of all this press? A lot of over-emphasizing the minimal is what this is all about.

  • Reply to

    Tesla to push for gun control

    by axconith Aug 4, 2015 10:34 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 2:40 PM Flag

    Shouldn't it be bullet makers, not gun makers?

  • Reply to

    Tesla to push for gun control

    by axconith Aug 4, 2015 10:34 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 2:39 PM Flag

    Does the car come with a bumper sticker saying "no fatties" ?

  • Reply to

    Customer Satisfaction: Tesla vs Nissan Leaf.

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 10:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 2:07 PM Flag

    43 cars out of 24,000 sold since middle of last year? Remember 2015 models came out from Nissan in August of 2014. Not Tesla - 2015 came out January 2015. There is a bad comparison right there.

    Autotrader allows new-car dealers to list their cars and 2015 models of Leaf are out there now all over AutoTrader. Select New 2015. Thousands show up. Used 2015 are 43, just as you said. Some auto dealers will title the car and use it for a tax credit and then sell as used, low-mileage. The Leaf is cheap enough for them to still make a profit there. In Colorado - it is illegal to try to sell a new car over 1500 miles, which is another reason some dealers will title it, take both state and federal incentives then resell.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 1:14 PM Flag

    How do you know the weight of the dump trailer? Two dirt bikes weigh under 420 pounds - not 7500.

  • Reply to

    Customer Satisfaction: Tesla vs Nissan Leaf.

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 10:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 1:13 PM Flag

    Leaf sold a lot in Georgia (20% of national number) because the buyers could get a $5000 check for a 2-year lease. 2 YEAR LEASE. That makes the first year payments almost free. Give enough incentives and people will buy them. Problem is state administrators are not that smart and think they are offering something of value - but it was a cash grab. Just like GE taking a 7500 tax credit for every Volt they bought and then giving their drivers a gasoline card. After three years, each GE fleet car showed 100,000 miles, their lifetime mpg was under 37. Just a little abuse there, eh?

  • Reply to

    Customer Satisfaction: Tesla vs Nissan Leaf.

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 10:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 1:10 PM Flag

    You didn't use the token 2015 in your OP. Now, you are self-correcting? Well come on - 2015 wouldn't really be up for sale yet - but 2012-2014 are because of all the RWD being dumped to get a DWD.

    Your last sentence is correct. Also, you will find more CPOs appearing as off-lease units come up and people do whatever they do next - trade up, etc.

    This churn is the "latest thing" churn. People willing to pay up for the newer model - and have the cash (from TSLA stock or otherwise) to do it. RWD was rated 99% satisfaction and yet after a few months of ownership, people were trading in their RWD to get a DWD - perhaps the initial burst was heavy P85D for insane mode. That is a select slice of the buying public. The McMansion and self-made crowd. That does not fix oil demand, the climate or sustainable driving for the masses. Tesla is saving the planet one gated community at a time.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 12:16 PM Flag

    Well, last quarterly earnings, the next day after the report, it opened roughly the same as prior close erasing a huge amount of volatility premium in the options on both sides. Buying options is actually not conducive to profiting unless you know a big swing is to happen.

  • Reply to

    Customer Satisfaction: Tesla vs Nissan Leaf.

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 10:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 12:13 PM Flag

    Use Autotrader correctly.
    Pull up Tesla, then change the "Within distance" drop down to Any Distance. I see 289.

    Which also is similar in count to the 278 on the Tesla CPO site now. So, 567 is current not = to 2.

  • Reply to

    Greeen cars === just don't sell

    by kbodie77777 Aug 3, 2015 11:04 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    At end of June, both WA and GA stopped their very-lucrative EV buyer-subsidies. The Leaf drop easily correlates to that change. Volt doing "ok" but surely nothing like they estimated into the future back in 2011 when they thought 45,000 annual sales in the USA was the goal (15,000 rest of world). That is 4000 a month. What happens when someone estimates "future sales" and gets it wrong because they were overly exuberant? Future sales hype was coming out of GM long before Tesla started hyping future sales of their own. You can buy a used Volt today for $15,000 and new 2015 models with up to $6000-7000 off sticker price. Either people are waiting on the Volt Gen-2 or there is a lagging demand across the industry which is generally visible across all models (see insideevs monthly scorecard). Nobody owns the industry and Tesla is a standout which can be somewhat tied to those who are paying for their car with TSLA stock winnings. Some have stated just that on the forums. That is an unsustainable aspect of the sales model.

  • Reply to

    Greeen cars === just don't sell

    by kbodie77777 Aug 3, 2015 11:04 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 8:00 AM Flag

    Are they all BEV? You know how you guys hate PiHV models and only "cherish" full BEV vehicles.

    The hottest selling EV in some areas, like Holland, is the Mitsubishi PiHV Outlander CUV. The USA needs more models like that.

    In terms of comparing to other models - one specific model, the Honda CR-V sells over 320,000 units per year in the USA alone. That is one specific model that dwarfs the whole plug-in marketplace by a factor of 2:1 in USA sales. kbodie is right, the EV "revolution" is slow going. I've said this for a year or more. it will grow slowly for quite some time. Primarily by those who think they are making a difference, those who don't have family members harassing them for getting a plug-in, those who have a plug at home and those who are outliers in society who make their own decisions and don't rely on friends and media to do it for them. Literally, there are few people who are that forward thinking in our culture and many act simply by the results of "group-think".

  • Reply to

    Model X rumors.....

    by lone_ranger Aug 4, 2015 4:51 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 7:56 AM Flag

    For a car due out late 2013... Sounds like they "figured it out".

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 4, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    When losing money, how do they pay back bonds due, with $660M due in 2018?
    About guidance - no CEO offers "correct" guidance. They offer a number they "want to hit". Last year, they wanted to hit 35K and realized without the D excitement, they would be even further short. This year, more models (70D, 70, 90, 90D, 90DL) - all simply option changes leaning toward trying for the same home rune of "Insane Mode" using this new 2.8 second Ludicrous mode. Referral discounts. Test-drive tours to wealthy sections of the country. They have their hand out and are asking people to buy.

    Obviously, they want to hit 55,000 but going back to an ER Q&A session for Q2 2014, Musk said they could do "under the curve 60,000" during 2015. All you have to do is listen to hear what differs between wants and wills. I still think this year, 48,000 or so is the result. But they won't offer guidance change until Q3's Q&A call in early November. Doing so now would be admitting that guidance is shoddy and basically a hopeful target.

    In last year's Q2 Q&A, Musk actually said he thought they could produce 2000 Model X a week. Of course they could if they are trying to burn down backlog, but this does not guide for new orders (ie. building the business). And the "macroeconomic shock" is simply the oil price decline since then. Buyers can choose no range anxiety and from 45-55 different ICE models or the one Tesla model which tethers you to a supercharger network or other forms of travel charging. Some say gas may be below $2 again in most states by end of year. As you can see below, a CEO does not use rational thought. They portray best-case-scenarios.
    EM - 7/31/2014: We feel confident of X ending next year at 2,000 units a week of production and demand, absent like some macroeconomic shock. But it's hard to say exactly what the area under the curve looks like. But it's, you know, yeah, certainly more than 60,000 I would think. But, yeah.

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