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ConocoPhillips Message Board

jmcvicker 1332 posts  |  Last Activity: 3 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    musk's new book: To Serve Man

    by markpl950 Apr 1, 2015 10:56 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 1, 2015 11:00 PM Flag

    Get aboard...

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 7, 2015 8:20 PM Flag

    "Is on track" is where you misinterpreted the words. Maybe that is what is being implied but only in. Perfect execution scenario and huge input cost savings. To grow an auto company production rate, it takes huge investments. More plants, more people, more expenses ongoing. Company owned stores and so on. Wven jf electricity were free, I hardly see this happening. Well, maybe in someone's imagination.

    Moderately incomplete vocalization shown below. An off the cuff remark, not a business plan.
    -----------------

    We are going to spend staggering amounts of money on CapEx. I mean for a good reason and with the great ROI. And it’s important to not look at the CapEx in isolation because like that CapEx obviously is being done for reason in order to capture substantial future revenue flow. I am just saying the back-of-the-envelope -- if you make certain assumptions I emphasize these are just certain assumptions. I’m not saying they are true although they will occur, but I bet that they do occur, personally, that is my personal opinion. I mean if you take this year’s revenue around $6 billion or thereabout and if we are able to maintain a 30% growth rate for ten years added to your 10% profitability number and have 20PE, our market cap would be basically the same as Apple today. Now that’s going to require a bit - on the order of $700 billion#. Obviously, getting [indiscernible] acquire some significant CapEx.

    But I’m hopeful that we can do this without any significant dilution to the company. So maybe minor dilution, but nothing serious.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 3, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    I see the press release. I believe this simply will be a sell the news event. You may believe it is impressive, but like I've said in the past - 10,000 is really 8600 due to the "1400 vacation orders".

    This will perhaps be a sell the news event. There are a few reasons to announce this on Good Friday, with a three days of no stock trading. One is to get the "news" out there to impress those who think it is good news and to get more press cycles. This may cause some buying in Q2. However, all indications for some of us Vin # watchers is that it appears that backlog has diminished and with Vin #s given out the day or next day after a confirmation (including one recently I saw for a China order at end of March) - I contend this is actually posted today for advertising and attention-grabbing purposes.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 8, 2015 7:57 AM Flag

    No, I think the shorts are working off of a typical "normal" financial valuation tenant.

    If you live in a neighborhood of $100K houses and your neighbor lists his house for sale for $999,999 then you wonder what they have been smoking.

    I think the shorts want to see a valuation that indicates true future prospects rather than fantasy scenarios.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 25, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Some of the points about gas prices will be apparent in the next 2-3 months as monthly US deliveries of plug-in cars are reported (good site is insideevs). That along with the general lack of public interest in doing anything about fuel choices and the re-growth of larger vehicle sales during this gas price decline indicates that both the climate change benefits and the oil savings of high mpg and EV/plug-in sales are being washed away by the rest of the common community who just does not care about those things.

    We live in a "I got mine, jack" society and the outliers (like me or other EV interested parties) bought plug-ins wanting to help cut oil demand and mess around with new-tech. We are a small group of individuals. Just as Chevy only sells to a select # of Corvette and Camaro enthusiasts, the plug-in industry is based on outliers.

  • Reply to

    Have you ever been in a TESLA?

    by bogdanmiltchev Mar 28, 2015 5:52 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 28, 2015 6:53 PM Flag

    You buy cars to cause envy? How does that add value to your life?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 3, 2015 11:06 AM Flag

    Include in the available quantity 2000+ inventory in China.
    They built 35,125 in 2014, sold 31,655. --- 3400+ Inventory units at a minimum.

    The unit sales in Q1 indicate they can sell cars. But how many were sold at discount to make this number? Do people paying full price and waiting three months for their cars and the guy down the street getting a similar one off the lot for $7000-10000 off to clear the sale - how does that look long-term?

  • Reply to

    Dead company walking

    by idioticshort Mar 7, 2015 9:35 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 7, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    It's not only people buying - it's large funds using other peoples' money buying. Give someone a few billion dollars and they will act like a titan. But their trading biases will not be to sell into strength but rather do things like dollar cost averaging to create an illusion of position "growth". They hide your money inside large Net Asset Values (NAVs) and you really don't get hurt when some high-flyer drops 20% within a fund holding 900,000 shares of that flyer - it only makes up 2% of the fund. But when some retail investor is putting down 40% of his 401k retirement in such a situation and watches it drop from 290 (happy days!) to 190 (I'm riding it down because I'm emotional and trust Elon) - then you have a real problem in who is really getting hurt.

    Mutual funds will not get hurt nor will most of their customers if TSLA drops 50%. But who does? The emotional retail investor thinking it's "the next Apple" because that is what the wall street hawkers say. Just beware of the guy in the suit. He paid for that suit with your money.

    Business is simple. It is about some entity trying to take as much money as they can from the customers who come to utilize their service. What does the stock market as a whole want? They want volatility. They want more trading transactions - because they want your FEES. They want to keep siphoning 1% from your pocket every year in terms of trading fees, management fees, etc. They don't care if you win or lose as long as you pay them. What do brokerages advertise the most? "Low Fee Trading!!!" They hardly advertise education.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 8, 2015 10:00 AM Flag

    Much like stock options, the chance of variance that far out is almost impossible to determine. Even if you are running the company and reviewing data daily. You don't know a wide variety of things and Musk even warned of "macro economic change" in the Q2 ER letter to customers regarding production output by end of 2015. They have no idea of demand in the near term and nobody can determine demand in the long term.

    Production could actually go to zero if things go badly. And could go to 400,000 if things go well. That is the actual range of possibilities without adding a 2nd plant. If they were to somehow gather some funds and bought a company in China that could build a Model C (built on China) then they could have higher production numbers as a corporate entity.

    But Musk has said "no GAAP Profits until about 2020". That means they just don't know.

    Clarity happens over time and the difference between now and last February/March is we now have had four new quarters of clarity. Missing guidance but promising "more to come" in the same way they gave rosey comments as far back as the very first Quarterly letters and 10-Qs after the IPO. The future always sounded better than what they actually did. Except perhaps the GAAP profit in Q1 of 2013 and the "surprise" sales of 6900 in Q4 of 2013.

    The D model caused a lot of owner churn (including people selling their 1-2 month old Teslas to upgrade "to the D" last fall. Will there be follow-through? How many lawyers and green fans need 0-60 in 3.2 seconds or a base MS 60 for over $70K (plus tax minus rebates and credits)?

    How about that USD/EUR Forex and how it impacts the exports into the slow-crashing Euro-zone? Nobody knows what is yet to come. Nobody should be talking about 2020 or 2025. The execution plan should be to do the best 2015 as possible - and then review how it went and do better in 2016. Speculating on 2020/2025 is nonsense.

  • Reply to

    rocket landing attempt... so so close

    by electrojolt01 Apr 15, 2015 6:47 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 16, 2015 12:20 AM Flag

    If they get it once, the averages will still be one in four, one in five attempts. Watching the last few seconds, I dont think it was even close to being a reliable landing that could be repeated over and over. I think getting it done once just to "show off" will be fine but something that is not 50% reliable long-term.

  • Reply to

    I'm going to THROTTLE Elon!

    by keefwotgetsbanned.alot Apr 19, 2015 3:37 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 19, 2015 3:01 PM Flag

    Secret weapon. Against the owners, not dealers.

  • Reply to

    Even the Law is below Elon

    by wonderwhy747 Apr 20, 2015 11:20 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 20, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    " It appears that Elon failed to reveal highly material information to investors "

    That means he also hid information from underwriters of the bonds in May - soon after saying to investors that they didn't need to raise money at that time.

  • Reply to

    Here's the problem with Wal-Mart and batteries

    by creephhi Apr 22, 2015 2:25 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 22, 2015 2:58 PM Flag

    In California, they pay peak rates between 2pm and 8pm, and those kWh can be somewhat expensive. Solar PV itself cuts draw from the grid for those kWhs pulled. However, a battery charged from midnight through 5am can then dump out from 4pm to 8pm and shave demand further. It is simply a matter of cutting expenses while also helping the grid with peak demands. Cutting off air conditiong is also important for firms to do during very high temperature days but many do not alter their set points and keep pumping to try to keep regular store temperatures.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 3, 2015 10:42 AM Flag

    You saying Tesla created the EV market? Seriously? Isn't it said that Elon got into it after seeing GM's EV-1? Did Tesla create the EV-1? How about all the home hobbyists converting old cars to plug-in in the 1990s and 2000s and calling for more mass adoption of plug-in vehicles.

    Don't let facts get in the way of a good story.

  • Reply to

    So much negative sentiment

    by justthefactsmaam_ok Mar 18, 2015 11:40 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 21, 2015 8:57 AM Flag

    Would you buy their next bond if it is due in 2022 and priced with 4% yield?

    EVs are better cars. That doesn't mean much. There is a cost associated with that. Even wealthy people would rather keep their money invested and drive used, well maintained cars than buying new versions to keep up with the "cool stuff". Book "Millionaire next door" shows that people can become wealthy primarily through not spending money. Or, "don't take financial advice from a poor person" comes to mind. Millionaires with money to burn easily can go for one, maybe two or three Teslas in a couple years - that's the goal. Musk wants that cash. Perhaps down deep, he is truly a Robin Hood figure in building sustainable transportation. Bringing faster and faster cars to rich boys who want new and faster toys.

    The real issue is can their factory and financial situation actually get to Model 3 at a price point that will triple Model S sales or more. If it starts at $40K, it may be a tough one. The community needs cheaper EVs for the general commuters who can benefit from it in countries with high fuel prices. Otherwise, just smooth torque does not sell $40-50K cars over other types if fuel is at a reasonable cost. A vast majority of consumers do not have one once of "green" thinking as they live day to day. I can see it out my own window. Nobody within a few miles of me (besides me) drives an EV/PiHV or has solar PV. Well, a few Prius exist in the area and I have seen a GEM car driving around the neighborhood a few years ago (it's a fun utility cart).

    I do know two of my nearby neighbors will not buy EVs because they are conservatives. They see the tax credit and all the politics of the past few years are "democratic" incentives and don't realize that George W. Bush signed the $7500 tax credit bill into action.

    The USA is currently the leading plug-in sales market, but China is catching up on the low-end side. Trouble is, the USA also has the benefit of falling oil price.

  • Reply to

    TSLA sounds like it is falling apart

    by blues_mannn Mar 14, 2015 12:52 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 14, 2015 10:24 AM Flag

    These were predicted by some who did good up-front analysis and didn't fawn all over "the story".
    These are ignored by those still believing the story.
    Some review long-range radar and computer models to forecast the coming storm.
    Others just simply look out the window to judge the weather.

  • Reply to

    How the range anxiety fix may work

    by bulbtrader Mar 16, 2015 3:15 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 16, 2015 4:16 PM Flag

    There are already some physics limits already seen. The solution will be more to make the driver smarter.

  • Reply to

    Tesla

    by ericap7104 Mar 26, 2015 10:02 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 26, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    Outselling Leaf/Volt - that is an easy topic.

    They introduced the "hot" P85D and the "semi-hot" S85D in early Oct 2014. They cranked up the interest for the personal roller coaster. Many Tesla owners traded up. Quickly - even after a few weeks to few months of P85 and P85+ ownership.

    Deliveries were carried over into 2015 due to vacations.

    Leaf and Volt both are waiting on their Gen II models. Volt Gen-2 comes out late summer. Leaf is supposed to have a 150 mile unit by mid 2017. Leaf isn't doing "that bad" but saturating.

    So, Q1 looks great. "Looks" great. but they didn't even start building S85D until Feb 2nd for customers. They built a bunch of inventory cars too and shipped them out to sales sites as well. They will have perhaps a record Q1.

    Then what??

    The country club got a new 18 hole course. Now, with 2 courses, it is time to attract more members to pay for it. This is the tough period of transition from a RWD company to two DWD cars but there is a level of saturation among the fans of the game. Assessment coming in the way of bonds? Who's gonna buy the fertilizer. It is very expensive.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Mar 26, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    You don't really need to plug them in. Let's say owners live 40 miles from the airport. They could drive in, park, fly out for 5 days, come back, drive home - no problem. Just looking at the truth of the matter.

  • Reply to

    Have your Q1 numbers ready.

    by jonlaughing Mar 26, 2015 1:14 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 1, 2015 10:55 PM Flag

    Well, driving past the local Tesla shop today, a good 15 new units there and at least 10 without plates on them, most likely trade ins. That is on April first. And no Model W to be seen either.

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