I said yesterday that I wouldn't be surprised that it rolls into earnings day at $220 to set the middle of the range. 7800 cars sold does not influence the market like the 6900 "leak" back in January during the Detroit Auto show (back then the pps was 165, of course).
MoMo action lately like CMG and HLF indicate that activity in TSLA will happen after ER and that letting options lose extrinsic value prior to earnings is what is going to happen now. If the daily options trade ramps up on July 30-31 even if the pps stays stable, then there will be some MoMo after the ER.
I thought the CMG jump today was a good sign for at least short term markets. AAPL means one thing - all long funds will be up and NAV across the board is growing wealth effect and allows more margin trading. So, if AAPL is up, everything will be up tomorrow.
I think they "want" it at $220 going into earnings for a reason - not sure why. Just like it traded in the 162-166 range for three weeks last Aug-Sept setting up to end the quarter at 190. I think this is different but the volatility is gone now. Option pricing is settling down.
This is a quiet time - one week before an important earnings release (July 31). Buying or selling now is dangerous both ways. It will flirt with 220 through earnings next week then react. Get ready to be bored until August 1st.
The new line is in a separate location in the plant than the old line, I believe. But one thing that this break does. It allows more order backlog to build up. The Vin #s keep being given out even with the plant down. Another few hundred given out today. Vin 51,000 surpassed. I have to believe they will give out nearly all the Vin #s to confirmed orders (I think worldwide) by ER next Thursday. Already, some early July confirmations have their Vin # and won't be built for another month to two months. By keeping the Vin #s flowing, it looks like there is a lot of activity going on out there. It does appear that they will definitely sell more than 31,000 this year but how much more? Not sure yet. I do think 35,000 is going to need a huge China sales number, something like 7500. US orders seem to be picking up a little bit too.
The ER happens before the plant restarts. If for some reason they want to keep the plant down another week, which I doubt they will, then that discussion point doesn't have to lead to any guidance change until the Q3 ER in November (I believe actual guidance is only required on quarterly releases by the SEC). Correct me if I am wrong there.
The real future is the Model X for 2015 and how impactfui that is in the US (we love CUVs and SUVs) and some parts of Europe wanting AWD (Norway especially).
Some say 35K this year. But next year, I have to wonder if it is even possible to hit 45,000. To get this growth, a lot of CapEx is being spent as is R&D and especially SG&A. Profits? That won't happen until they stop spending.
Around NYC with .18/kWh electricity, it is equivallent to $2.00 gasoline for a 40mpg car.
That is about the same reservation ratio as Model S was back in early 2013. That was before the per-day rate fell to the 20s and they stopped giving out reservation #s.
Here are my numbers for Model X US reservations (through July 21).
This is USA only (Canada is separate - see TMC Tally thread)
Q4 - 2013
17.91 Per-Day (oh - the fish!)
25.28 Per-Day (Sturgeons and pike)
23.38 Per-Day (more Pike, less Sturgeons)
China is roughly 9-10 per day. World total per day is just over 40/calendar day. Seems to be roughly flat right now and will ramp up when they start to offer pricing. One guy on TMC yesterday was talking about his reservation was intended to be an early reservation that was intended to sell immediately after taking delivery so he could cash in on sort of a scalping activity.
To clarify these numbers do not include Signature - only "Production".
Signature was appx 1.76 per calendar day from the start in Feb 2012 to when they closed the reservations at 1356 on 3/26/14.
Europe - production, not sig - through July 19.
I'm pretty sure they will stop giving out sequential reservation numbers any day now. Maybe after the ER is flown on July 31.
Not for the whole quarter. Possibly during the June "push" to complete the quarter and pull some deliveries from July into June at Freement (about 20 delivered per day the last few weeks through Fremont).
Also, plant shutdown was July 21, not first of month. They may have run it hard last week as well. They just gave out 1000+ Vin #s over the last week even with the plant down this week and next. Gotta make sure the Vin # max printed keeps going up into the ER. They did the same last year going into the Q3 ER in November, then slacked off. That was for Euro orders. This time it is China orders. I bet they give out another 1000 Vin #s by next week and catch many buyers up who have ordered through July.
It is called "failing from a high with signal". Most pros will not go short without at least an initial downtrend. A double top would be even better for him. You can almost see one there for today.
GF is needed for the Model III.
GF was supposed to break ground in two locations in June.
GF site selection now at end of the year.
Hype != good management