Elio Motors wants to do their 3-wheeler on about $300M - that will be one platform, engine design is done, simplistic overall design, using an old GM bankruptcy plant (smaller, but not unlike Tesla). However, their sales price goal is $6800 for a "car" that gets 80mpg. The reason they want to do it is mainly for those who need a "new" car with a national service chain (Pep Boys) for a reasonable price. They are in a precarious position because gas prices are low and may stay low and so many are used to commuting alone in their 4-seater or larger vehicle and want to feel "safe". I just wonder if Elio will just be another version of Fisker Motors. Good intention, bad follow-through. If the car is reliable, who knows - could work out. It won't be able to use the HOV lane in California without a 2nd passenger so no sales by the HOV-wanton commuters who are willing to "buy" an HOV lane access pass using the plug-in regime to do it. An 80mpg Elio won't be able to get an HOV sticker but a 50 mpg Plug-in Prius or 40 mpg Volt will get a green sticker - even if the buyer never plugs it in.
kbodie was being a bit sarcastic with that one. Of course, when you float a bond with words on it saying "We are building a factory (and other things)" and then use it up long before that factory is done - you do have to wonder how much spending will really be needed. Just as Barclays predicts $11 Billion will be needed soon - it lines up resonably well with my theory that a car company must invest $10 Billion for each 1 million they want to produce per year. Somewhat simplistic numbers - but it's not far from what is apparently happening. And yes, produce. You must also have a market to deliver what is produced and enough confidence to deliver that many per-year from that point forward.
Another thing making me "crazy" is how CA information sites have gone quiet - it's almost like they are in collusion to keep information low these days.
SGIP site hasn't posted their Project List the last two Mondays. last one posted was 11/09.
CVRP Rebate Statistics also has not posted updates since 10/25. So nobody can track how many Teslas or other EVs received rebates in California since that time.
Either they have staff turnover or are trying to keep eyes off of real information which involves these markets. Translucency has gotten darker.
So, it's no wonder no Power Storage product was delivered in Q3.
Ever wonder if they might consider paying some of their bills with finished goods (ie. transfer of value)?
For small suppliers, they could click down some A.P. with some cars at "negotiated discount" off sticker.
I saw, on a car search site, an east-coast Chevy Spark EV (19 kWh, LG Chem cells, range about 90+ miles) for lease at $139-month with no money down (10k miles a year). Not bad for someone wanting an electric commuter.
Just go watch an RC race. Reasonably good "action" on the field while nobody is in the car. Who needs full size 1:1 remote control cars when you can just go to any good RC track today and watch that.
Off road electric: H1Q6SLT9pew
Just 1000 signature deliveries will lower Customer Reservations by $40,000,000 on the quarterly ER paper. So, wait until last week of December to try to get a few dozen or few hundred done.
It was said LG Chem is there for the Roadster upgrade packs, not other cars. But who knows - a 2nd source to "play each other" for best price on partnering?
b) No deliveries of energy storage products were made in 3Q
Really? Why not? Aren't there numerous projects under way in CA and NY? And the April 29th "reveal" was for what reason if Q3 offered no deliveries? The word "ruse" comes to mind. Marketing? Stock pump? "new product, not a car" tweet - stock was high 180s. Ramp through end of April to 230 -- and no product delivered in Q3? Who says they don't attempt to manipulate the share price?
I don't think institutional buyers care. It is other peoples' money. You bet on the "favorites" until they indicate problems through news and further problems. Many were buying oil stocks as oil dropped from 100 to 40 and many do not sell into strength until much later than a very active investor. If they acted with prudence, the market would be far more volatile. For a High IV stock, you want lots of institutional buyers and long-term holders because their goal is to hold for 12-months or longer to keep from issuing lots of STCG. If funds are buying now, they may not sell until next November. But many currently hold shares they bought more than 1-2 years ago. I think many still believe in "dollar cost averaging". For a fund holding 200-300 names, one mired holding is nearly meaningless to the overall NAV. They know MM'ers can pump it back up again. Unless news is terribly bad. Kind of like say the GMCR fall-apart due to Keurig 2.0.
Many are 2014 models that were put into demo/loaner use in Q3 and Q4 of 2014. Year old cars being turned - I suspect being replaced with new builds as part of the recent "orders increased around the time of the MX reveal". Regional sales offices making replacement orders certainly *are* orders, aren't they?
The 11k is wrong, but it is more like this below (and what's up with constantly bloating Vin # series over time?) A lot of Q3 2014 Vins were cancelled (ignored.not built), I'd assume, and were replaced with DWD units in Q4.
Qtr Vins built sold Inventory +/-
Q4 6,900 6,587 6,892 -305
Q1 9,272 7,535 6,457 1,078
Q2 9,178 8,763 7,579 1,184
Q3 10,435 7,200 7,785 -585
Q4 12,091 11,627 9,834 1,793
Q1 12,259 11,160 10,045 1,115
Q2 12,315 12,807 11,532 1,275
Q3 14,769 13,091 11,603 1,488
Most manufacturers will issue a Vin # as the car frame enters production. NOT weeks and months in advance to appear stronger than the actual production number will be.
ev-cpo web site has a bunch of inventory cars listed as of yesterday. Many with age of 12 months or more and most RWD and most P85 or P85+. These are old demo and loaner vehicles. I believe they are "turning inventory" by loading up orders in September (the Vin # assignments show this) and re-selling the old loaners to be replaced by new builds. I bet you can find some real good deals out there for "new" cars with 15,000 miles on them - deeply discounted - and able to be approved for the Federal and State credits and rebates. Who ordered all the MS in September? Could it be made up, partly, of many of the regional and international sales offices for this turn?
There is no real reason to turn old demo and loaner cars. Except to offer them at discounts to make the number. What kind of loaner are actual owners "owed" when they go in for service? A "fresh" car or one that just works. But turning old stock is a known car dealership model every year where they sell old cars at discounts and replace with new stock, repeat annually.
True sales in Europe will be known in about 10 days for November. Growth there is very important to "hitting the number". Doing this pump now a few days before November sales show up is appropriate.
West coast folks ordering MS are getting Vin# and going into production a few days later, per the postings on TMC. They are still taking orders trying to hit the number.
It is getting more predictable all the time. Do the MM's have a private line they work these runs out on? It is reminding me of the expert calls highlighted in the movie "Smartest guys in the room".