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Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Message Board

jmcvicker 1133 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 17 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    A BIT ON TESLA NORWAY SALES...

    by flashrob Jul 2, 2014 11:49 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 17 minutes ago Flag

    Let's say you cannot do the following in CA:
    - get HOV lane access for one occupant.
    - Get a TOU meter for re-charging at night cheaper.
    - get a state rebate of $2500.
    - also get the federal tax credit of 7500.

    It is not a bashing question - what are the sales like in the EV world (which I participate in driving a Volt) if those incentives were not there? They are there to start a market but they will not be there forever. Especially if politics comes to better budget management and removal of tax credits for those who can afford these cars without the credit. It almost seems like everyone expects these incentives to go on forever. They are there just to entice the education process. But when you give out HOV lane access, alone, that is a huge benefit to the common commuter in CA where they would never even think to car-pool or figure some other way out to drive their 80-100 miles and 2 hours each way. It is simply a "for me" entitlement. Live in a desert with inflated housing prices and have to drive 50+ miles to afford a house. What is yet to come will be quite painful. The managers at the firms can afford EVs to get the HOV lane access. Their younger workers cannot because they cannot get the tax credit due to lower income and lower tax liability and high cost of living expenses. These need to be at point of sale rebates off the selling price and not a tax credit if you want to reach all potential buyers.

  • You get a Vin #. Watching Vin #s is interesting. Isn't a Vin # supposed to be a car? Would they build the guy's car even if he cancels the reservation or do they use up Vin #s even if not built? This helps understand how Vin #s are getting ahead of production... Wondering how many Vin #s were abandoned...
    ----------------
    CANCELLED ORDER BEFORE 2 WEEKS WAS UP. NOW I HAVE A VIN?
    KrisKitchenz | SEPTEMBER 17, 2014
    So I placed a deposit on a model S after a test drive. I Cancelled it in the 2 week time frame, have confirmation.
    Just logged into mytesla account and noticed there was a VIN?
    Had anyone else had this happen?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 3 hours ago Flag

    Doesn't seem that far from the actual. The real issue is not that it saves gas but the cost of entry is somewhat high to do so. One can get a Chevy Volt new for $25K out of pocket, or less, and save almost the same amount on gas. I have a five year loan on my Volt and still pay $500/month plus higher insurance rates with Allstate (my fault for doing so). I put Tesla ownership at either $1/mile for an MS60 to $1.20/mile for P85+. That is over the life of ownership. It is more for a lease where you are limited to 36K or fewer miles and spend half the initial cost of the car when returning it. Imagine leasing a $100K car with 50% buy-back guarantee over three years. Heavy depreciation. And with 21" wheels, you are replacing tires once or twice over that 3-years as well especially if you do not have the forethought to force the issue of alignment verification when taking delivery.

    To many, owning a Tesla is a trophy for investing in TSLA two years ago. "Bought mine with stock earnings". Would be better to buy a house or Solar PV array with the stock earnings where payback occurs, not depreciation.

    The numbers don't work, exactly, but buyers do it for the fun and novelty. Much like owners of 1960s restored muscle cars. There is a passion and passion has no price. If people acted frugally, the economy would not grow as fast as it is and wall streeters would not get as rich, as fast. So, get out there to the shopping mall and buy your wife a Coach handbag, some Mont Blanc pens and dinner at Cheesecake Factory. For the experience not for the savings. Put it on the credit card...

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 19 hours ago Flag

    You know, one of the best buys on the market is an off-lease Volt. If you don't have an EV, but are a proponent, you can have a Volt which should easily last through 200K or more miles - for under $19K for a used off-lease, well taken care of one with under 35K-36K miles. The Volt may be one of, if not the, most innovative products from GM and includes just as much ability to give someone nearly 90% or more all electric miles yet allow long-trips without rationalizing.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 20 hours ago Flag

    Sheesh - if you think it is going up, sell March 275 puts, don't buy 275 calls. Or heck, sell 250 puts and still make good money and not be locked into the 275.

  • Reply to

    Something is up...

    by quikfeat Sep 18, 2014 10:20 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    This thing is a joke. I had sold 135 calls a week or two ago. Was doing fine. Yesterday, ramped up, had to close out for a pittance of profit. Today, back to $135. So it goes.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    Correction, 500,000 EVs. Of any sort.

    8 Million commuters using plug-in vehicles would allow us to not import any OPEC oil at all. Going to take some time.

  • Reply to

    GOLDMAN/SACHS.....................

    by ballcoach_30 Sep 19, 2014 11:31 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 22 hours ago Flag

    I mentioned here maybe 5-6 times that I believe for an auto company to sell at a rate of 1 million units a year (for each million units), an investment of $10 Billion is necessary. Then, the intention is to earn back the investment through profits of sales.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 23 hours ago Flag

    At this point, you can't take a FC car on a trip. They are doing the first batch of FC cars to appease California and Japanese regulators. It can be efficient with today's cheaper H2 pricing but it has come down by more than 1/2 over the past 3 years and that can easily reverse.

  • Reply to

    Capital Raise - Say Bye Bye

    by jlivingstone2000 Sep 19, 2014 9:19 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 9:23 AM Flag

    Why would GS pre-announce something ? If they are a book-runner (usually are) then they wouldn't do that. Is there any proof of this chatter? Where is the note?

  • Reply to

    199/mo for a leaf.

    by scottish_rocket_scientist Sep 18, 2014 5:56 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 8:41 AM Flag

    Leaf has CHAdeMO fast DC charging - under 1-hour to charge. Nissan dealers are installing CHAdeMO across the USA and is helping raise some interest that someone can come by and get a charge quickly if they are out and around town. Normal overnight charging at home on 240 either at 3.3KW or 6.6KW is normal and gives a driver a full charge when ready to drive in the morning.

    And, it is ugly - it is of Japanese design and style. They need to electrify the Maxima or Altima.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder Sep 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 19, 2014 7:27 AM Flag

    If they drive for convenience, they will live for convenience. I don't see people buying EVs who are not EV enthusiasts. Look at the GE Fleet purchase plan of the Volts and Energi models that they made their employees do. The employees mainly never plugged in their EREV cars. They got typically 30-33 mpg and no electric range because they drove it like they stole it (because they were given the cars) and they kept tire pressure lower than recommended and put in Regular Gas because they got gas cards and you get more regular per dollar. That is the type of people you mentioned, non-enthusiasts.

    People will not buy EVs if they feel their convenience will be cut. They like gas stations scattered about, the ability to take the car to the top speed and own the road. Frankly, I don't want them in the EV enthusiast crowd because they really have very little care for anyone but themselves.

    I also use less than 350 W/h in my Volt at 70 mph but I choose 65-68 mph as my highway speeds. I can still get 42 miles on the highway electrically because it is steady-state, not stop and go where acceleration uses more stored power. Would you rather jog 5 miles or run 50 100-yard dashes?

    60 kWh in the Model 3 will not sell for $40k even with the battery factory unless they come up with cheap, high-storage Lithium Sulfer design with 2000+ recharge potential. $50K maybe - but will the common buyer put up with the minimalistic interior when they compare with the other mid-range luxury cars?

    What we really need "for sustainability" is cheaper, more pedestrian cars. $25K base, 150 mile and then a more basic model with various options. Upper middle class and wealthy can buy expensive cars. Who needs the benefits the most? The people with less income who do need to commute to work every day and run errands. It will be a long time before Tesla can support this group. They are mainly looking at collecting funds from those who can afford to join the EV country club.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 6:20 PM Flag

    My estimation it will be 7, but perhaps if done really well, 8 times as safe as human drivers. His claim of 10 is pure hogwash. It will be 7. It must be a prime number.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder Sep 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 6:17 PM Flag

    50 kWh? I can get high 40 miles out of my paultry 10.4 kWh in my Volt. Surely they hit 200 miles with 50kWh. Not in winter, of course, and everyone knows EVs lose a large amount of range (20-30%) in winter.

  • Reply to

    TSLA an "all in" poker hand

    by want2popov Sep 18, 2014 4:00 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 5:20 PM Flag

    No, GM is not leader in EVs. It is Nissan/Renault, by far. Leaf, e-NV200 + the various Renault models.
    GM does have the plug-in Cruze in Korea and the Spark EV here and there. Some would not count the Volt/ELR as EVs due to nature of the engine extender.

  • Reply to

    TESLA Model 3 $35K Price

    by cbx6cylinder Sep 18, 2014 4:59 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 5:09 PM Flag

    Simon Sproule was quoted in an LA Times article saying it will be "about $40K". Do you have some link or reference for this $50K? Even I don't believe that one.

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 5:00 PM Flag

    quick question - if the factory is not running full speed and they are production constrained - why not run it more? If it really can do 2000 a week and demand is there, why not run it? See the problem is - when someone says it is production constrained - the plant or some input parts must be the limiting factor. Is the limit labor / people? They had an open house for new hires and had to shut it down due to the number of people wanting to work there. So, labor is not a concern other than costs. I think we are seeing a balancing act between new incoming orders, plant production and logistics. Which means the transition from production constraint to demand constraint is occuring.

    And, where are the Vin #s? 9/9 was the last reported post from someone getting a Vin#. I really think they will hold back giving out new Vin #s now for a few reasons. We may actually see them go through ER in October/November without a Vin # issuance. probability is low - but it could happen. Other automakers do not give Vin #s out until the frame is painted for the job (job = one car produced).

  • Reply to

    For all you VIN Counters..

    by cssaxt Sep 18, 2014 12:05 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 2:27 PM Flag

    Hang on a sec. For clarity... They produced 1,000 more than sold in Q1. They produced 1,200 more than sold in Q2. So, they sell all that they produce is currently not correct until the sales surpass production. Sure, they are en-route but the two numbers taken-discretely do not say they sell all that they have produced. In Q3, there is a small chance that sales equal production due to the shutdown / restart window.

  • Reply to

    UBER AND TSLA WOULD MAKE A PERFECT MARRIAGE

    by market440 Sep 16, 2014 3:27 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 1:41 PM Flag

    I think taxis are a perfect solution for EVs. Tesla or otherwise. They tried to establish a Nissan Leaf taxi service in Arlington, VA last year. The town council voted against it. Mainly due to worry and fear.

  • Reply to

    UBER AND TSLA WOULD MAKE A PERFECT MARRIAGE

    by market440 Sep 16, 2014 3:27 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 18, 2014 12:57 PM Flag

    That may happen in SF or NYC. Try that in Milwaukee or Lincoln, NE.

ENPH
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