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Enphase Energy, Inc. (ENPH) Message Board

jmcvicker 1145 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 35 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Google: car-crashes-into-busy-sushi-restaurant bakersfield

    Clearly, the most crashed EV on the road.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 47 minutes ago Flag

    The new line is in a separate location in the plant than the old line, I believe. But one thing that this break does. It allows more order backlog to build up. The Vin #s keep being given out even with the plant down. Another few hundred given out today. Vin 51,000 surpassed. I have to believe they will give out nearly all the Vin #s to confirmed orders (I think worldwide) by ER next Thursday. Already, some early July confirmations have their Vin # and won't be built for another month to two months. By keeping the Vin #s flowing, it looks like there is a lot of activity going on out there. It does appear that they will definitely sell more than 31,000 this year but how much more? Not sure yet. I do think 35,000 is going to need a huge China sales number, something like 7500. US orders seem to be picking up a little bit too.

    The ER happens before the plant restarts. If for some reason they want to keep the plant down another week, which I doubt they will, then that discussion point doesn't have to lead to any guidance change until the Q3 ER in November (I believe actual guidance is only required on quarterly releases by the SEC). Correct me if I am wrong there.

    The real future is the Model X for 2015 and how impactfui that is in the US (we love CUVs and SUVs) and some parts of Europe wanting AWD (Norway especially).

    Some say 35K this year. But next year, I have to wonder if it is even possible to hit 45,000. To get this growth, a lot of CapEx is being spent as is R&D and especially SG&A. Profits? That won't happen until they stop spending.

  • Reply to

    Something wrong with the stock?

    by albertdrone 2 hours 25 minutes ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 56 minutes ago Flag

    This is a quiet time - one week before an important earnings release (July 31). Buying or selling now is dangerous both ways. It will flirt with 220 through earnings next week then react. Get ready to be bored until August 1st.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 5 hours ago Flag

    I think they "want" it at $220 going into earnings for a reason - not sure why. Just like it traded in the 162-166 range for three weeks last Aug-Sept setting up to end the quarter at 190. I think this is different but the volatility is gone now. Option pricing is settling down.

  • Reply to

    AAPL is reporting after hours

    by foraipac 5 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 5 hours ago Flag

    I thought the CMG jump today was a good sign for at least short term markets. AAPL means one thing - all long funds will be up and NAV across the board is growing wealth effect and allows more margin trading. So, if AAPL is up, everything will be up tomorrow.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 6 hours ago Flag

    I said yesterday that I wouldn't be surprised that it rolls into earnings day at $220 to set the middle of the range. 7800 cars sold does not influence the market like the 6900 "leak" back in January during the Detroit Auto show (back then the pps was 165, of course).

    MoMo action lately like CMG and HLF indicate that activity in TSLA will happen after ER and that letting options lose extrinsic value prior to earnings is what is going to happen now. If the daily options trade ramps up on July 30-31 even if the pps stays stable, then there will be some MoMo after the ER.

  • Reply to

    New 800 mile batteries

    by foraipac 9 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 9 hours ago Flag

    This is like saying a new 45 mpg gasoline is out. Nothing to do with miles in a battery.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 23 hours ago Flag

    People confirming in early July in the US Getting Vin numbers today still have Sept delivery dates. No real slowdown except when they built a few thousand for China. They have to make it look like they will produce and sell 35k until Q4 when the real challenge lies in completing with a huge year end push.

    I still think something comes up in early August to delay plant restart for one week and they reiterate guidance. They will reiterate guidance during Q3 ER in November. The Q2 ER is coming out before plant restart. Guidance doesn't have to be reiterated until Q3 ER. Shrewd move to have the ER while the plant is down. Wasn't the shutdown initially scheduled in early July? Let's see how this plays out.

  • Reply to

    Bloomberg article

    by dumpster_juice Jul 21, 2014 3:24 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 4:58 PM Flag

    "Weekly production at the plant was 800 units ahead of the current project"

    That is not even a proper english sentence. They ran the plant hard in June and probably saw 800/wk. But the plant MUST run at 1000 per week from August through Christmas to produce enough cars to make the 35,000 sales guidance. I hope the booked reservations are there to support the production. But we'll never know until quarterly results are posted. Q4 posts in February, 2015.

  • Reply to

    Another fail

    by man711 Jul 21, 2014 3:12 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 4:49 PM Flag

    Red light racer. Not track racer.

  • Reply to

    Does anyone think Elon Musk is

    by stockit2me Jul 21, 2014 3:37 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    He's a general contractor. The GC who built your house didn't invent windows and shingles.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Pre-warming of gasoline vapors does help it burn better. Just as a cold engine runs with really poor mpg - it is possible a gasoline vapor warmer could help further than just a warm engine burning cold fuel.

    But I contend that telecommuting, car-pooling, more mass-transit and conservation is far simpler than trying to invent some new physics paradigm in order for us to save on gas. Living below our means, spending less on junk and all that - all good for the environment, sustainability but terribly bad for the corporations who rely on us to keep the flow of money going so they can profit from us.

  • Reply to

    Battery Supply from LG.

    by hoodsternj Jul 21, 2014 1:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 2:21 PM Flag

    People in Hong Kong get their first cars this week. many there are highly disappointed about their delays and poor communication (whether it was the original signatures due earlier this year in Q2 or the later units pushed back from August to Sept to November). Logistics isn't cheap. Australia is also another low reservation count country and they have no idea when they will get theri cars this fall (spring for them).

  • Reply to

    JMCVICKER, TEMAGAMI67, ETC, (KNDI)

    by norwaygaga Jul 21, 2014 1:18 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 2:07 PM Flag

    I may sell $25 calls and $20 puts if it breaks above $23. But it's not interesting. They sell cheap EVs only in China to city-dwellers and offer car-sharing Kandi "racks" of cars. I think it is an interesting In-China play but surely localized. BYD and other firms in China will also sell small consumer cars. KNDI to me is pump and dump right now - need another couple quarters to understand their real viability. And, if bullish, sell some $17-18 puts for December.

  • Reply to

    TSLA to $1000 within 5 years......

    by max_imus721 Jul 21, 2014 1:21 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 2:04 PM Flag

    There are numerous cars on the road today that people can buy and stop paying for gasoline. Is that the #1 reason people buy a Tesla? You do realize Tesla is not the only EV car maker. Just as Xerox was not the only photocopier in the world when they were popular.

  • Reply to

    Battery Supply from LG.

    by hoodsternj Jul 21, 2014 1:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 2:02 PM Flag

    I think they just about meet Q2 sales guidance (ie. 7500). The hard part comes later in meeting Q3 and Q4 "excess guidance" for H2 to come up with 35,000. But until then, wall street wants everyone to believe they will meet that and be "on their way" to fulfill the claim of "most important car company in the world" (per Adam Jonas).

  • Reply to

    Long Term?

    by labates4 Jul 21, 2014 7:42 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 11:53 AM Flag

    I would not be surprised if this went sideways and entered July 31 at $220.

  • Reply to

    TSLA being considered by AAPL

    by jkaniu Jul 21, 2014 10:16 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Apple completes and boxes product in China. Making batteries in the USA (in a form factor not the same as that in their products, so why?) - then shipping to China for installation - is not prudent. Also, China has a vast amount of battery plants which supply many devices from hearing aids to large equipment like EVs. Apple and Tesla would be like Google and GM.

  • Reply to

    Long Term?

    by labates4 Jul 21, 2014 7:42 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 10:35 AM Flag

    Tesla is not a sports car. BMW i8 is not an EV. Neither are mainstream yet. The i8 is cute as a quick vehicle - however, wait for the i5. That is what people will want (more than the i3).

  • Reply to

    Long Term?

    by labates4 Jul 21, 2014 7:42 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 21, 2014 10:07 AM Flag

    By end of year, there will be one specific issue to deal with - how to build and sell 21,000 cars during H2 of 2014. Or, how can they soften guidance during Q2 ER to best handle this issue. They gave 35,000 as guidance for sales this year during Q1. They have not said anything to indicate they will not make that guidance and we are getting close to end of July. Sales in Q1+Q2 add up to 14,000. They also do not post the order backlog and use sales guidance using terms like "fish jumping into boats". This is why there is a lot of shorting of the stock - due to these lack of transparency items.

ENPH
11.59+0.23(+2.02%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT

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