Not this quarter. IB still playing ping-pong with daily trading to keep the price up. Wait for all the 13-F filings from Q2 to come out, see who is still in the game. There is no current news and the only stuff discussed on the Q&A call was future, if not fantasy, plans. The only time things could go bad is later in Q4 watching deliveries not hit the goal of 35K this year. If they hit 35K, then they hit a pretty good target. Musk muttered on the Q&A call about hitting 60K next year - I highly doubt that number. EV sales other than the Nissan Leaf are not growing that fast. 30% growth next year maybe. But all markets are open now and growth in existing markets is shown to be limited growth. By not shorting TSLA the price stays stable is less influenced by short squeezes and other defense tactics.
Absolutely. Germany, Japan and China have perhaps a much stronger nationalism than we do. Since the US is a "melting pot" of immigrants and nationalities - each of those countries are much more strongly home-turf oriented.
Paulo is actually pretty spot-on with his analysis. His sales accounting and questions about how they will hit 35K are correct. Musk didn't really support hitting 35k on the Q&A call directly, he guessed Q4 would be 'like 12k or something". That is where there is no basis for the delivery number in Q4 other than pure speculation that they will produce about 13,000 in the quarter and deliver Q3. It "sounds right" but is it? The speculation has been kicked down the road another quarter. Q3 will be 7800 deliveries or so (maybe more, possibly a "surprise 8,000'. but they must average 10.5k per quarter for 2 quarters to hit 35K. meaning - 8K + what? What = 13K. Effectively, they are saying they will build at a solid clip of 1K per week and have already started making an excuse of why Q3 cannot be as high a delivery due to the plant shutdown. They could be running the old line right now while the new line is retooled. It is in a separate part of the building.
First off - this is not up to date. It has to be looked at after all of the 6/30 13-F filings are done, two more weeks to go for compliance. Just review the web site whalewisdom.
That is the MSRP. Tesla quotes prices "after incentives and rebates" (see the web site). Their quote of a $35K car has largely been assuming they could pull it off "pre-rebate" but they really seem to mean post-rebate. Simon Sproule has said (he's the VP of Tesla Communications) - that the Model 3 will sell for "about $40K".
As a stockholder, you should be doing something like that every week or month for added income. Selling OTM covered calls is a consistent money maker if done smartly.
The after hours early 15 minute candle was enormous and it settled into nothing gained, nothing lost. That is not something you see every day.
The term was "Tesla used to be known for showing cars. Now, we're we, we're, we are not showing cards."
Seeking Alpha should have the transcript of the call up sometime soon. If not, listen to the call. I can't believe you guys are here and haven't listened to the call - it's available on the Telsa web site under Investors.
Huh ? The Model III will not go on sale until 2017 and that's what they have said. Model X starts up in 2015. What happens in 2016? An attempt to get ready to produce batteries an lower the input costs on MS and MX.
Model III never was said to be available ever before that time.
Just check out the cash flow without the bond overallocation occurring in Q2... Yes, was due to CapEx but there will be no bond overallocation in Q3. Q3 should be at best a cent or two non-GAAP profit. If only 7500 are delivered (why, with 1000 in pipeline out of Q2...) The blame game happened on the call - saying would have had higher deliveries in Q3 (future-tense) if the factory would not have shut for retooling. You know what - the new high speed line is SEPARATE from the old one. They didn't even need to stop the lines at all - just run the following week on the new HS line rather than the old line. Separate parts of the building. If needs were there for more deliveries in Q3 - then they should have run the old line 7x24 in the first three weeks of July and gave the guys time off for two weeks while retooling. There is a lot of fuzzy math going on that people have to account for.
You and everyone should listen to the call. Really listen in detail and take notes. Especially with terms like they "can drive demand at will" and already speculating out loud on a public call about next year's guidance without even having priced the MX yet. I think Keef is onto something.
They asked a few harder questions on the Q&A call. Sort of asking "how will you make 35K guidance if you only do 7800 in Q3? What about Q4?" Musk kind of brushed that off as "yeah, so, something like 12k to 13k" and later, said they can drive demand at-will. A lot of smoke and mirrors answers on the call and the "not showing cards and more". There was a lot of unspoken "stuff" on the call. The kicker was that 2000/wk run rate consideration for late 2015 and using that to maintain financial stability and create an imaginary future. Sure, the MX will be good and sure they may sell 25K of each but spinning up the media with thoughts of further doubling by end of year and implying 60K in sales (Musk's "area under the graph") was not challenged by the callers on Q&A. Honestly, it sounded like some were starting to question their answers.
They have pre-announced up to 2 million shares of dilution in Q3. "Only" 727,000 shares of dilution in Q2. A pittance.
to 140,948 from 140,221
Based on our current stock price, we project between 141 million and 143 million diluted shares outstanding in Q3.
Simon Sproule, VP of communications at Tesla, says that the Model III will sell for "about $40K" - interviewed in the LA Times very recently.
They will catch-up again on US orders by end of the year. Right now, we saw some early to mid-July orders get last week in september delivery dates. One on the east coast (July 19 - Sept 30 in PA).
This is why they do not print reservations by model. I do think they will stop giving out sequential reservation numbers for Model X soon. They did that back in Q1 of 2013 when the US orders per day dropped to 20/day. Keep in mind that right now, TMC shows the US MX Production rate is roughly 25/day, world a bit over 40.