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Power-One Inc. Message Board

jmcvicker 1108 posts  |  Last Activity: 42 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Bashers are not doing a good job.

    by farmer28653 Jun 29, 2015 11:32 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 42 minutes ago Flag

    I had to look twice at this to see if I had written it. Agreed that on an uptrend, selling junk puts is comfortable earnings for someone even if they have a bear bias. Doesn't mean sell 270 puts. Means sell 200-220 puts out a few months and managing them.

  • Reply to

    CPO cars ==== now do you get it

    by kbodie77777 Jul 3, 2015 9:01 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 45 minutes ago Flag

    As I drove past our Toyota dealer the other day, I saw 25 Prius lined up by the road, dozens of pickups, hundreds of other models. Big place. Another spot near us has over 800 cars/trucks/etc. on the lot including used. Inventory is one thing for them - but the buyer seems to be one who wants a lot of choices. Having a wide number of inventory Model S on the lot when Model X comes out "but you have a six month order period to get one - why not buy one of these Model S instead" comes to mind.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 48 minutes ago Flag

    Simply google: Bolloré BlueCar solid state

  • Reply to

    SGIP data

    by jmcvicker 2 hours 33 minutes ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 25 minutes ago Flag

    For this one of your many forum names, you spent a lot more time on this one than your one-liner "accumulate" junk. Golf clap for that one. You're part of the manipulation crowd and enjoy the freedoms that American stock trading offers. I think China saying they are going to crack down on manipulation is a good sign. Too bad SEC is part of the big game in the USA.

    You can't "just imagine" anything. Reality is now and only now. A clear heart is worth far more than cash built upon Wizard of Oz antics.

  • Reply to

    jmcvicker- You were nervous Shorting at $190

    by fku_holly 2 hours 1 minute ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 28 minutes ago Flag

    I didn't short at 190 and stop calling my login name out on your posts.

    From that period, I sold short puts the whole time. That is called earning money while other shorts cover. I spent early 2014 shorting and paid a price, but it was a learning experience. It's all about the hype. Enjoy your riches - you've "earned" them. Tragic that American business requires incredible hype out of Silicon Valley to tell us that they are changing the world while simply cashing-out.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 1 hour 36 minutes ago Flag

    Solar + water = O and H2 I thought proponents of HFC cars thought they can push the solar angle?

    I don't like HFC for a variety of reasons. I think Toyota could have "hit a home run" with a better plug-in solution. The Mirai looks horrible and probably will sell in the dozens if not low hundreds. Per year in California.

  • Reply to

    SGIP data

    by jmcvicker 2 hours 33 minutes ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 2 hours 9 minutes ago Flag

    The world speaks - we have seen a couple random powerstorage placement articles (Ireland was one) where they were going to do demo systems and check things out. Since this is behind three sets of Wizard of Oz curtains, we will never know the real industry potential until they post quarterly revenue sheets. This is why the company is a horribly huge risk. Talk earns algorithmic trading upswings and 100-block share trade pressure on the shorts. But results are held for single-day events. There is reality and there is talk and I think this is a huge show that is meant to be an incredible distraction to the reality to come.

    Without constant streams of PR saying that this and that power company is doing pilot systems with the technology, which many like to do in order to showcase their progressiveness, I feel that you guys are being lead on a leash. But enjoy whatever you can make from it for now.

  • Reply to

    SGIP data

    by jmcvicker 2 hours 33 minutes ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 2 hours 16 minutes ago Flag

    Because CA is the home market with the most incentive money up for grabs. They should be cranking out projects there due to their "partnerships" with the utilities. Slow goes CA, slow goes the rest. I don't see Kansas doing more than CA. Or Texas. This is going to be a slow-birth with a whole lot of crying.

    JB Straubel said in DC recently that in 2016 they want to sell 1GWh of stationary storage. one. That is $250M in revenues. just over 2600 cars' value. For the year. If they have such big orders - why not deliver on that? I'd bet until the Fronius US inverters are readied, they won't sell any powerwalls to residences in 2015 at all or just a few to talk up on CNBC.

  • Reply to

    CPO cars ==== now do you get it

    by kbodie77777 Jul 3, 2015 9:01 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 2 hours 20 minutes ago Flag

    2015 may also include "sells an $85K car for $83K to a tire-kicker"

    My local Tesla shop is starting Q3 with a good handful of CPO and 9 window-stickered cars on the lot as well as loaners and demos and showroom units. All stickers indicate June production. Like I've said for 12 months, Tesla can and will only grow by overproducing and eventually selling the cars off the lots. Custom orders are not going to cut it. But how many tire-kickers are buying $85-96k-120k+ cars? Inventory lists can be shared among sites and cars shuttled around. Just like dealerships do. At least they are putting some inventory up on their pre-owned site. Nice car and all - but it does appear to be a change in business model. How many of the first 5000 Model X will be inventory/demo rather than real customer orders? We know many inventory cars were built before end-customer orders but at least now the USA customers are turning fast while the Euro/Asia buyers end up waiting longer.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker 2 hours 33 minutes ago Flag

    Anyone else here downloading the SGIP documents weekly when they come out on Mondays?

    A good review shows that:
    of all historical projects, 164 total have been interconnected. 143 are 5KW (homes) (( what about that 300? ))

    In 2015, 31 residential were interconnected.
    one 1000KW system (Fremont) was interconnected 4/28
    one 200KW system (mountain view) was interconnected 6/5

    I guess "talk" about this industry rather than execution of completed and interconnected sites is what it is all about. Certainly has everyone (who doesn't have time to do actual research) believing the words. Hence your nice pps ramp. The talk is strong on CNBC and other places where people who gamble congregate. Keep watching the SGIP program. 88 cancelled in 2015, 101 new projects logged. As the old allocations are cancelled the money becomes available for newly logged projects. 26318KW new, 8665 cancelled. Net new 2015 KW = 17652 KW or about 360-400 powerpacks. 400 powerpacks is $10 M revenue @ $25K ea.

    My favorite stat is that since 4/1/2015, only seven new project lines have been received for Tesla-sourced systems and four are already cancelled. What remains are three, 250, 500 and 1000 KW lines. You would think new projects would start to be logged ever since entering this "new industry, not a car" at the end of April. It may be that the announcement was simply "advertising".

    One SGIP rule that is interesting is that you cannot get money if the system is for standby-only. It must be for peak load shaving. Buyers who want a standby powerwall basically are paying the full non-incentive price. I am sure some will claim federal tax credits for the battery if it is attached to the solar pv array due to the sloppy IRS treatment of the battery as "part of the solar pv system". However, it must be charged by solar pv power and not by grid power overnight - if so, that is dual use and cannot receive federal tax credits. But IRS has no resources to "go after" such people.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 3 hours ago Flag

    In the political area, given the way economies work, I think we all know that eventually this economy based on continued growth cannot continue forever.

    My own personal belief is:
    "Any economy that requires constant growth in order to survive will eventually do neither."

    That can be said for companies as well.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 3 hours ago Flag

    Whether it is gas taxes or mileage taxes - it is on the vehicle. Get more people into a vehicle and cut down on energy usage and road congestion. Car-pooling (a rarity) and conservative driving still has a long way to go before it takes off. The most efficient vehicle usage comes from our poor people who take mass transit because it is the most economical for them.

    28 states are considering ways to move from gas tax to mileage tax. With people moving from the 1980s style 12-15 mpg cars to modern 30+ mpg cars - states don't "get what they are due them".

    But was it due them in the first place? Their other option will be property taxes, sales taxes and other money grabs. Sales taxes would be the most appropriate because those who buy more seem to have more money. California has boosted sales tax up to 9% and seems to be doing ok.

  • Reply to

    MY TESLA GAMEPLAN THIS WEEK

    by pwdyfan420 6 hours ago
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 3 hours ago Flag

    You bullied your way up, what will you be saying as you bully your way down? Is your character cemented entirely in directional greed bias?

  • Reply to

    CPO cars ==== now do you get it

    by kbodie77777 Jul 3, 2015 9:01 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 17 hours ago Flag

    l_r
    Look at TMC, thread Tesla-Model-S-CPO-Website-Now-Live

    Page 110 indicates a bunch are about to take on some serious downward pricing from their original prices listed.

    I am still not 100% convinced (legal or not) that 11,507 does not include Q2's CPO sales. Can someone actually get words from Tesla to ensure that they are all new vehicles?

  • Reply to

    CPO cars ==== now do you get it

    by kbodie77777 Jul 3, 2015 9:01 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    When a RWD owner wants a DWD upgrade, there is the small used market and work to sell it - or just let Tesla pay what they end up believing is "fair" for the trade. Sure, they paid $90K and a few months later, take $70K for a trade-in so they can have the newer version quickly. They may also be spending the benjamins they got (or "earned") by trading TSLA. So let the money flow - and they get what they want fast with no hassles. If you ever watch someone pay tables in Vegas, you can see thousands of dollars won and lost in a few minutes. I do believe some owners are loose with money decisions.

  • Reply to

    First Billion Dollar Quarter?

    by lone_ranger Jul 2, 2015 6:15 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    Meaning - 323 rows from 4/7 through 6/30. How many items in your sample?

  • Reply to

    First Billion Dollar Quarter?

    by lone_ranger Jul 2, 2015 6:15 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    My model mix is:

    The 2nd and 4th column are line-items - all since 4/7, but a few orders before that converted to 70D as well.

    since 4/7 17-Jun pct 30-Jun pct
    85 10 3.5 11 3.4
    P85D 39 13.8 44 13.6
    85D 87 30.7 103 31.9
    70D 147 51.9 165 51.1

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    Revealing the D early - it was a necessary thing to do but extremely successful. can you imagine if they were still churning out just RWD units?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 21 hours ago Flag

    If they did not have cars for immediate sale, I'm sure they would have sold fewer. The company would have huge problems without inventory (originally in the "name of" loaners and demos offered for discount and then later window-stickered cars ready to go right now). If you are a willing buyer and not just sniffing around for information, they will show you what inventory choices you can pick from. Give it a try some time.

    Where did they go? By quarter:

    built sold unsold
    6,587 6,892 -305
    7,535 6,457 1,078
    8,763 7,579 1,184
    7,200 7,785 -585
    11,627 9,834 1,793
    11,160 10,045 1,115

    I am suspecting that in four weeks we find out that they produced nearly the same as sold, between 11,200 and 11,700. That will be your sign of cost controls and trying to sell more inventory than producing new units. Thing is, that confirmations are going into production quickly - for not only US orders but also some European reporting buyers. Guy in Denmark confirmed 6/24, Vin # assigned 6/24, started production 6/30. Just like others in the USA have. Guy in CA confirmed on 6/14, Vin 6/15, prod 6/16, done 6/23, delivery 6/30. No rush to make a number.....of course not.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker 22 hours ago Flag

    The analysis is good but lacks a few drivers. That being no new (yet) other models other than MX due out in the fall. Last year, P85D was spun up in Q4 and delivered during December. Now, 70D is the momentum driver. When Q4 2014 started, there was one RWD set of cars. Now, there are three D models and one RWD model plus MX and PMX coming (Performance version of MX). If they can drive production into the 800-1000/week in Q4 and if the orders for MS will need something to spur on 14.9K unit sales. What is that actually? Do you see a 40% sequential growth from now until Q4 for MS alone? They have worked down the US backlog and it is definitely visible with orders going from confirm to production in under 10 days now and various CA buyers getting a car well under a month from order (let alone confirmation). I don't see why some people do not look at these details and understand that a lever or two will need to be pulled to actually increase MS order rates now.

    If you look at the US MX Production version order rates, they are relatively slow growing right now on the cusp of the model pricing being released. Using TMC reservation tracking and the sequential number given, you have this layout of MX Prod reservation rate, the rate is per-calendar day. 24.1 is 169/week. That is about today's MS production rate per day. The MX will then be shown, priced and people will decide to put in new orders.

    USA-P daily
    2014-July 24.4
    2014-August 28.2
    2014-September 28.0
    2014-October 23.1
    2014-November 16.1
    2014-December 11.9
    2015-January 14.1
    2015-February 12.3
    2015-March 18.6
    2015-April 19.4
    2015-May 22.3
    2015-June 24.1 (thru Jul 2)

    Seq # on July 2 18,609
    Seq # on Dec 31 15,188

    That is the US Production (not signature) order rate for six months - 570 / month
    With the 25,000 or so orders how many are actual buyers? How many switched to MS? TSLA investors who do not have a fully refundable MX order booked would be foolish not to. Will they buy the vehicle?