Should be a combo effect here. Some deliveries, some inventory for year end "want it now!" purchases of people stopping in. Trouble is - for inventory cars, they built them before building actual customer orders. Customers don't want to know that there are inventory cars - so they call them loaners.
For normal driving - basically your 60-70 mph highway driving and nightly recharging including 15-20% charging losses (depending on voltage and amperage) - many folks really use about .4 to .5 kWh / mile. Or two miles per billed kWh. On the Autobahn in Germany, double the speed to 140 and that will triple the draw so give that about 1 kWh per mile as a general estimate. At .30/kWh in Germany, your 20 mile of range at autobahn speeds is about $6.00 per 20 miles for the electricity. Free superchargers will help there but you will need them every 140-150 miles or sooner at higher speeds.
Everyone wants to be right. And being right about something in the future ahead of time earns someone "kudos". When Tesla estimated 35K sales in Q1, Q2 ERs, I had already said a good guidance would have been 31000 and they could get over that if they executed well. However, after Q3 ER said 33k sales and then Elon mentioning 32-33K in the GQ interview, and if he was being truthful, then really - the 35K sales guidance along with the featurettes by MS and other analysts saying Tesla was just about ready to save-the-world - that caused a lot of panic buying. It is a slow, but steady, growing industry. They are going to have a crazy busy December trying to stuff as many luxury and fast sedans into the hands of wealthy individuals so they can get their tax credit on for the year and do some launches. But this is surely not saving humanity. Might be generating some grins. At the at tire plant where they make the replacement tires.
500K was the number the NUMMI factory "used to do" when ICE vehicles used to be produced there. Pie in the sky number based on what "the factory can do". However, to do 500K a year, you need a market, enough battery product, robots to weld and make battery packs, assembly lines to hit 500K and more. Right now, the assembly line can do about 400/day or 250k per year if run full time. Need a 2nd NUMMI plant to hit 500K per year. Jonas may still be high. On his estimates, I mean. 500K comes if they buy an east-coast plant or partner-up in China for Asian production.
Look at this weeks ITM Put open interest. They can use those contracts to just early-assign those short put options at any ask price through Friday. Should keep the price climbing. I would not want to short this week during this phase.
You know, in the conspiracy angle of things, his report today may actually be a signal to market makers to buy in order to begin another short squeeze. Especially after a solid week of selling. Even though the report was negative, a "Jonas call" could still trigger cooperative and collusive MMs to do something for the short term in order to go against the grain and allow for some distribution. Posting a note about a 40% cut in future sales based on a few valid reasons is substantial. The note makes sense given some of computing out the actual future growth potential of the EV market based on actual past sales growth numbers and current economic conditions. Using 30-40% compound growth, 300K is right about the number for 2020. That also means that the gigafactory "benefit" per car is lower. And the cost to ship batteries from Japan has gone down dramatically lately due to the lower price of oils and the low baltic dry index of sea-lane shipping.
Enormous shill, sell side analyst. My god, those who follow these guys need their heads examined.
Of course, emotional longs will be in disbelief and simply will ride it down to their entry price.
The waiting and constant web page checking and yacking on TMC is easily worth $5k in the experience. Just like buying high prices popular concert tickets ahead of time.
I wrote herein July that it looked like they were catching up in backlog and that I suspected the plant may be down longer than they expected. They did reopen after two weeks but slowly. They could have run weekends going into the shutdown but did not. Then, used the plant restart slowness in Q3 to estimate 2000 lower. That was more than the plant would have built if running at full speed. It was not like they were doing 50 per week after restart. They were doing 500 per week according to Jerome as mentioned in an early August interview from Hong Kong. Either they ran four weeks at 500 instead of 1000 or something else is up.
I was talking with someone who worked on the line setup during the shutdown and he was proud of the fact that they did so much in such a little period of time. But that does not fix management, business estimating and making clear public statements. That was from August, does not fix the current issue with SeatGate and trying to finish P85D units for a year end high margin push. This will be a poor quarter and they need 10k in Q1 at a minimum or more pressure will be put on them to deliver. Backlog is going to be worked through quickly if they run weekly 1000 production. They will need the early Q1 pause and some new news to generate more backlog.
The Fremont line could do 400/day (told to me by someone who helped set the line up). Also said they were doing under 100/day before the switch over. In my opinion If they wanted to, they could produce the whole backlog in December. Looks like they have issues getting 1000/wk done for a variety of reasons. The old line apparently had machines removed from it so they cannot use the old line for much unless they retrofit that. It is one line only right now. Seems to require what looks like 7 days of two shifts to do 1000/wk. That may be stretching employees and logistics a bit. I don't see 700,000 a year nor 100,000 a year anytime soon. Not without large outlays of capital and labor. It takes a well dressed, college educated employee at least 1/2 to 1 hour to do a delivery. And they don't pay that well - but do give stock options. In a downtrend, ESPP stock options are not exactly worth much.
Vin # assignment is right there at 4000 per month now but they have assigned vins for Euro delivery of P85D and S85D in February and March already. Things are being caught up reasonably quickly now that the initial burst of P85D is being done.
SpaceX is generally a cargo shipping company and maybe satellite delivery service. Mars is no where near their capability. You normally hear about SpaceX on shows like the late night conspiracy radio show Coast To Coast AM when they describe new space technology but they cannot explain why SpaceX is any better other than being a low-cost provider.
I bet Russia would offer cheaper flights right now to earn some income.
The EV industry does not support 50% CAGR. Next year, plug in rate of growth industry wide will be below 30%. USA sales of plug-ins is only 25% this year over 2013.
If China is 13% growth, then N.A. is the primary future market, period. China growing 13% is horrible when put up against the prospects positioned in such articles as this:
Google: TESLA'S NEXT STEP Audacious growth plans will stretch Tesla beyond its comfort zone
No, his loans were back in mid-2013. pps then was under $100. And, his shares are worth more than his loans. I don't think this is even an issue. Now, pps under $80 for a while might be a problem.
They may break 32K total sales this year and in part by dumping all the non-radar RWD vehicles for deep discounts. Production constrained is only happening when there aren't enough seats or batteries. But it seems if there was long demand, they wouldn't discount anything off older cars and keep them for a year showing "sustainability" and just how good the cars can be after 1 year, 2 years and so on. Rolling the loaners each quarter just admits to building cars for speculation sales. Otherwise, never roll the loaners - keep them in house.