Also, how did Tesla "characterize" battery swap stations to "earn" the extra ZEV monies? Musk told people directly how the stations would work and that they would begin by late 2013. Told people that at the battery swap "demo". Characterize. Right, their character is impeccable.
Jtfm, the words used in those statements from Tesla and the media are all hype. The incoming order rate will go up only after starting an advertising campaign. For now, they are already catching up on backlog. In two weeks, vin numbers will be about 5-10 days after confirmations. This means, order this week, get a late October delivery date. Orders through the end of the year have not been placed yet. 100k rate in late 2015 is only a dream right now. They have to sell 32,000 or more in 2014 first. They might but my estimate has them beating my early-year personal guidance recommendation of 31,000 by going slightly over 32,400 this year. Holding to that number for now along with 7644 for Q3. Though I am not too sure 32k is in the bag yet. 31,000 was a good guidance number to start the year and shoot to beat. I believe they had to guide high for the bond hype in February to seed the Jonas document.
Jerome G. recently wrote to an Australian buyer (echoed emails on TMC) who knows that a variety of their cars are already built. Says they will not deliver cars in Oz until they have requisite service in place. Meaning - they will be getting 3-4 month old cars when delivered in October, at a minimum. Tesla holds their deposits, including the monies of the Signature buyers (all at 0% interest), while holding back deliveries of cars already built. They hold the cars as inventory. I guess this is good business but - why take deposits in 2011 and 2012 for such cars and keep delaying the customer satisfaction of getting their products?
Interesting how the new high-speed assembly line at Tesla uses a lot more robots and automation to scale back the human labor factor of the $17/hour laborers. Maybe he is the Terminator incarnate?
IB is loving the retail trader who thinks they know what is going on with Tesla.
If you have a mutual fund with 100 stocks and 1% of the valuation is Tesla. Imagine if Tesla stock fell by 50%. The mutual fund NAV will drop by .5%. That's it - half a percent. Who-cares levels. NAVs drop by .5 every day and go up again. It is a homogenization of money - a sort-of fractional-reserve investing. But the retail investor who is in-love with Musk thinking he is some sort of "messiah". He is a businessman wanting to pull cash from wealthy people for a very good car and make it seem like his "goal" is helping humanity. Emotion is very powerful. I could say it is the same emotion as the Cows of Chik Fil'a offer when wanting you to "eat more chikn".
What helps humanity? Education of people. Best way to keep humanity going is to education people to live in locations that aren't at sea level. To not have 10 children per couple in developing nations and to perhaps consider living smaller in first-world countries and not wasting resources. Some people even think his idea of "going to mars" is intelligent. It is a huge distraction within humanity and in some religious circles could actually be considered very anti-spirituality.
Anyway - shorting Tesla. I think that those doing it want to be there when a drop does happen and the auto-trading bots still run to keep ramping the price up. The volume is way too low to affect anything pps wise. What has to happen is some sort of news of the negative. And there isn't much of that right now. When it does come, it will be like a "thief in the night" (we've heard that one before, in certain circles) and it may lead to some really interesting trading. I'm staying away from trading Tesla but do like to review what people are saying here and "why" it will go higher.
Higher? Over $1 Million valuation per car "potentially" sold this year. How can we believe that there is any reason to deserve this? Time will tell.
Incentives are supposed to start an industry, not become it's life-blood. Looks like the industry is "started" in Norway - by impacting the environment that it serves. Take away bus lane easy-access and drivers will have far less reason to buy an EV. Similar for California. Two primary markets for EVs.
Power comes from the main HV battery and the engine is the generator to keep the battery at a certain state of charge. Driving on the highway, you only need 15-25 horsepower. An engines maximum power is required during acceleration from a stop or when really needing to accelerate fast (on-ramps,passing, "doing the launch").
The battery range is increasing in the Volt Gen-II as well. the 1.0 engine makes sense and they chose the 1.4L in the original design because it was a world engine, easily sourced (used in Cruze, Sonic and more). Now, 1.0 engines are showing up in smaller GM cars and thus they can use it also in the Volt.
The thing to watch is the 200-mile BEV due out from GM. It will be sold in the US, Europe and Asia. I also think as the Spark EV goes national, the price of that compact 100-mile EV will come down since it will use the LG Chem cells and not the pricier A123 cells.
The stations are charging posts - equivalent to about a $15,000 Level 2 station. And wording of 20 supercharger stations (no determination of stalls per site). They are not 400 expensive superchargers. The words "400 Tesla charging stations" was eaten up by trading algorithms and even possibly real humans and ramped the stock on Friday, last day of the month. The genius is playing the media to the advantages of those who benefit most, stockholders, at the right time - end of month, before August sales figures and estimates come in or determination if they can make annual guidance or not.
jtf: They were not back at regular production time and have had 3 weeks of running slowly and even DS people are telling customers yesterday of 7-10 days behind schedule.
I just don't see it possible to hit 35K now. They could run weekends through December to do it, sure. They have been running weekends lately even with the line slower. Doesn't add up - but we'll all be watching for signs that things pick up. People ordering as late this week have end of October delivery times. They need new orders in the USA to make it.
Three months in Q4, 4000 per month, can someone even determine *how* using mathematical physics that they can even produce more than 12,000 during Q4 let alone sell 14,000?
The media claims (mis-represents, as planned) that Tesla will sell 100,000 in 2015 by mis-representing the mis-leading claim from the Q2 ER about the 2000/wk delivery rate "possibility" for end of 2015. The media is full of people with ADD and no editorial oversight.
I have said as early as February that I thought a good guidance for 2015 would be 31,000. They will have delivered about 21,000* after Q3 is over. That leaves a huge hole to fill. To sell 32,000 in 2014, they then need to sell 11,000 in Q4. That is a 40% increase over Q3. To sell 35,000 THEY NEED TO SELL 14,000, nearly double ! The USA is the primary market and the incoming orders don't seem to match this need. This is why they need to have inventory cars in Q4 and plan for that ongoing into 2015 to even consider reaching 50,000 in 2015. They entered Q3 with about 2,100 units in inventory (on ships, loaners, etc.) based on adding up 13Q4-Q2 built but not sold.
* (sales estimate of mine for Q3 is 7764 currently - a record quarter)
Question for all - WHO HERE thinks Tesla will sell 14,000 units in Q4? Seriously?
At 40/day consistency, perhaps about 24,000 highest reservation # by December. However, pricing has been held back for so long that there is no known conversion rate of those who had MX reservations who just went and cancelled and went to an MS. The roughly 40 per calendar day has been consistent since about march with very slight uptrend. China shows that it is not really doing much, under 2000 in 8 months. The real number is USA-based Model X Production models. Reservations are a cheap spot to land money if you are a stockholder and will be buying one with stock gains. That activity is not sustainable. Is the stock growth mainly to grow more buyers? Sounds like short sellers are financing the purchase of Telsa cars by Tesla longs. The thing is, most Tesla longs are large investment banks. Any bad news and they're going to start liquidating. It's a house of cards right now. No wind.
It is a sign of a cult when many customers state that this change for everyone from sourcing parts to entering a production queue (everyone got this blanket change) is a "sign of progress and Tesla is moving forward". In terms of the work to make this new status record in the database, it took an iT guy about one minute to change the text of the status message.
We will see more of this.
I confirmed my P85+ on Aug 18 and initially the Dashboard showed "November" as an estimated delivery date. Then several days later "Late October" at which point I had my DS change my order to add the new black headliner. Now just today it changed to "Late September". I seem to be moving upstream while everyone else standing still?
Guy just posted his own frustration:
I placed my ordered in mid July
my current delivery date is November.
If I were to order today
my delivery date would be November.
I am frustrated. I appreciate the new line going in but 6 weeks wait for zero time on the anticipated delivery, that is just painful.
Buyers who are awaiting their cars being build used to sit with a status of "sourcing parts".
Now, everyone was switched to "Your Model S has entered the production queue at our Factory in Fremont, California"
Everyone was excited this morning because now they are "in queue" - big party, in the queue, yes!! Well, think about it - they were in queue before but it was called sourcing parts. Doing this before a long weekend and in-tandem with relatively minor news on this last-trading-day of the month seems manipulative, doesn't it? Could today's trade be "peak Tesla"? Before the Vin #s for October are assigned and reality of Europe sales for August are seen?