Dominate? Very doubtful. Slow and steady growth will go on as more models hit the road. GM sells more Chevy Cruze units per month in the USA than all plug in cars from all manufacturers do, combined. One model.
That is probably true - but going EV today is an expensive proposition. Some fanatics have bought an EV at twice to four times what they normally pay for an ICE car. They may find that the costs of maintaining the loan is too high and fall back to something cheaper to pay for. For me, my Volt still has a $500/month payment for me for the next four years. I could have saved money and went with a used car at $10,000 and saved $10-20K. So, will they go back? Why not. Many EV drivers also have a family member with an ICE for longer trips.
Utilities are in a troubled spot. They keep harping on people to conserve energy and have programs to even shut off peoples' AC in the summer on hot days at 15min intervals. How will they also push for more electric demand? They have to be agnostic but sure they could definitely benefit by selling more kWh in the middle of the night for EV buyers who feel that is the best time to charge. They want you to charge at night but cannot push for it.
It's a 2 year old "company" (living in a 11 year old house). First MS were built around this time of 2012. No trend is really stable. Not with the investment banks and hundreds of small funds holding a majority of the shares. The small guys can exit in a day. Big guys hold on until they hit thresholds. BNP Paribas does whatever they way in whatever way they want.
GF is about 3-5x the CapEx they would have needed for a nationwide battery swap system. They hyped battery swap and didn't do it. Hmm.. What would the CapEx and OpEx for say 50-100 battery swap stations be? Each housing 50 85kWh packs and one or two full time employees year round? Perhaps 24x7?
GF is needed for the Model III.
GF was supposed to break ground in two locations in June.
GF site selection now at end of the year.
Hype != good management
It is called "failing from a high with signal". Most pros will not go short without at least an initial downtrend. A double top would be even better for him. You can almost see one there for today.
Also, plant shutdown was July 21, not first of month. They may have run it hard last week as well. They just gave out 1000+ Vin #s over the last week even with the plant down this week and next. Gotta make sure the Vin # max printed keeps going up into the ER. They did the same last year going into the Q3 ER in November, then slacked off. That was for Euro orders. This time it is China orders. I bet they give out another 1000 Vin #s by next week and catch many buyers up who have ordered through July.
Not for the whole quarter. Possibly during the June "push" to complete the quarter and pull some deliveries from July into June at Freement (about 20 delivered per day the last few weeks through Fremont).
Europe - production, not sig - through July 19.
I'm pretty sure they will stop giving out sequential reservation numbers any day now. Maybe after the ER is flown on July 31.
To clarify these numbers do not include Signature - only "Production".
Signature was appx 1.76 per calendar day from the start in Feb 2012 to when they closed the reservations at 1356 on 3/26/14.
That is about the same reservation ratio as Model S was back in early 2013. That was before the per-day rate fell to the 20s and they stopped giving out reservation #s.
Here are my numbers for Model X US reservations (through July 21).
This is USA only (Canada is separate - see TMC Tally thread)
Q4 - 2013
17.91 Per-Day (oh - the fish!)
25.28 Per-Day (Sturgeons and pike)
23.38 Per-Day (more Pike, less Sturgeons)
China is roughly 9-10 per day. World total per day is just over 40/calendar day. Seems to be roughly flat right now and will ramp up when they start to offer pricing. One guy on TMC yesterday was talking about his reservation was intended to be an early reservation that was intended to sell immediately after taking delivery so he could cash in on sort of a scalping activity.
The new line is in a separate location in the plant than the old line, I believe. But one thing that this break does. It allows more order backlog to build up. The Vin #s keep being given out even with the plant down. Another few hundred given out today. Vin 51,000 surpassed. I have to believe they will give out nearly all the Vin #s to confirmed orders (I think worldwide) by ER next Thursday. Already, some early July confirmations have their Vin # and won't be built for another month to two months. By keeping the Vin #s flowing, it looks like there is a lot of activity going on out there. It does appear that they will definitely sell more than 31,000 this year but how much more? Not sure yet. I do think 35,000 is going to need a huge China sales number, something like 7500. US orders seem to be picking up a little bit too.
The ER happens before the plant restarts. If for some reason they want to keep the plant down another week, which I doubt they will, then that discussion point doesn't have to lead to any guidance change until the Q3 ER in November (I believe actual guidance is only required on quarterly releases by the SEC). Correct me if I am wrong there.
The real future is the Model X for 2015 and how impactfui that is in the US (we love CUVs and SUVs) and some parts of Europe wanting AWD (Norway especially).
Some say 35K this year. But next year, I have to wonder if it is even possible to hit 45,000. To get this growth, a lot of CapEx is being spent as is R&D and especially SG&A. Profits? That won't happen until they stop spending.