The NY guy's car finished production. Confirm to prod completed in 9 days. Then a few weeks of transport. A few california buyers took delivery in under a month from confirm date already. There is no four month wait except RHD markers and maybe China. Already producing recent confirmed orders for what appears to be a new hot market in Denmark.
If every one leads to three buying, the order now, receive in late June seriously refutes that. Especially with many buyers now being second or third car buyers. Why os the backlog not growing to support your supposition?
A type of battery that does not have an 80-90% round trip efficiency but rather a 95% to nearly 100% efficiency is really going to be a big benefit. For example - to put 72 kWh into the Tesla, you need to pull over 85 kWh off the grid or from local energy production (solar PV, etc.) It is not as efficient as we think. Just as JB Straubel presenting to the PG&E about the grid storage product they are offering - it is 80% efficient at 1/2C round trip charge/discharge and 89% efficient at 1/4C round trip. The car charging at a supercharger is doing so well above 1C charging and if road-tripping, discharging at 1/3 to 1/4C. If doing launches, short-term 3C discharge and higher for a few seconds.
More efficient battery chemistry whereby the ions move with nearly zero internal resistance is needed.
A battery does not store the electrons coming off the grid. The grid power causes a chemical reaction in the battery to move Lithium Ions from cathode to anode.
New batteries with new uses of common elements are also being studied. I would take a more efficient battery over a larger capacity battery. What is needed is less charging loss so there is less waste during the round-trip usage of power. That helps grid storage and car usage.
And the best fuel for a car is intelligence. Knowing when to drive and when not to drive, when to car-pool and when to stay home, when to joy-ride and vacation and when to conserve and not do something. In the overall big picture, fuel burn and mileage racked up is typically done by younger "experience-searching" people wanting to go do things in order to create memories. They may not have local community to share within so they drive long miles to events, beaches, etc. People need to get to know their neighbors and not just seek out long-distance experiences. I know I have used the analogy before - but look at the Amish, how do they do it? They pull off community events and get along well and work hard - and do it with horses.
I support oil dis-use. Independent or not - the idea is to cut back for all frivolous use. I wouldn't mind seeing Nascar shutdown entirely. I also find that once out of the city world (where many posters are from, centers of population) many if not most drivers either drive larger CUVs, SUVs and trucks. I passed a rural factory the other day and 80% of the vehicles in the lot were trucks. That is the lifestyle away from the city life. In fact, those folks will likely survive a grid down event and those in the city would have major issues because they rely on the rural farmer with the food they create. The first step in going with oil independence is to stop using it for ridiculous endeavors.
At this point, the # of cars in inventory is quite high and the backlog has waned. How is that exponential? There are only so many people interested in EVs. Now you may get families buying their 2nd unit as they prove-out the first. This does happen. But I just don't see the catalyst yet for any sort of exponential anything. It hasn't happened with the "rest of culture" below the 1%ers buying Teslas. Volts, Leafs and others have growth that is slow and steady. Tesla brings out the D models and everyone thinks that there is some sort of exponential growth happening - yet many are just wealthy people wanting the latest new thing and trading in their older RWD models. Be careful what you imagine, it may not actually be what you think.
Keep up with demand? This week a guy in NY confirmed on May 14, got Vin # May 15, Entered production May 20. Another in Hawaii Confirmed 5/19, Vin# 5/20, says entered production 5/20 as well (though could be "entered production queue" - need to verify). They want to deliver a big number in Q2, it looks like and are relying on local US orders to do much of it.
The backlog is burnt down. Demand is going to explode in what way? They have kept up with demand and have built it out and I suspect they will work hard to close out Q2 and have a re-tooling shutdown in July to prepare for Model X. At least July 1-10 for post-Q2 break, something like that.
That is with two new "interesting" models - P85D and S85D being rolled out. Two entirely new and exciting models, many bought by wealthy new owners already wanting a new fix of new shiny object.
300 yearly recharges of the car is 75,000-86000 miles a year. This is why they go with 8-year unlimited mile warranty - however capacity is not warrantied. A super-commuter who drives 200 miles each commute day would be going about 50,000 miles a year and if 1500 cycles is about the lifespan, that is going to take over 8 years of time.
What it would seem is "new" chemistries are used for the high-cycle batteries, including the grid-storage utility-scale units. I suspect those cells will be used in the Model 3 as more of the state of charge would be used per-day.
But in the battery industry, cells which allow more cycles are higher-valued. They provide more stored power over time than other cells. They are what cars like the Leaf, Volt and others need for 1000s of cycles over their lifetime. Tesla used what may be inferior cycle-count cells in a much larger number (85kWH) to most likely take advantage of cheaper per-cell pricing. Using the 5000 cycle cells in the cars would make them more expensive.
As the Model S ages and people put higher mileage on the cars, I do believe that some of them will be buying new battery packs as the cars pass 300,000 miles. That is "out there" in terms of mileage for normal cars but those with some German-brands have seen 500,000 and higher mileage out of their cars and since Tesla considers itself "luxury" it should consider offering the higher cell count chemistries as an option when you buy the car if you really intend to use it long-term and not trade it in after 2,000 miles as some people have done. They got the temporary thrill and it passed and are onto something else.
Speaking of backlog... I think this post today could have been a factor in today's selloff.
Order confirmed: 5/2/2015
Est: Late May
VIN assigned: 5/4/2015
Production start: 5/15/2015
Being prepared for pickup or delivery: 5/19/2015
I will hit over 100 miles of all electric driving in the Volt today. Still well above the EPA numbers for this four year old car. Start in the morning, do a run out to errands. Plug in for two hours. Drive some more. Plug in at a free municipal building. Get a full charge and head home. I am not a big fan of the Volt Gen 2 yet and feel that the next ones to watch are VW and Ford for new EV opportunities.
They had to offer a way for owners to get in by getting out. They needed to pump the D sales and offering a quick solution to that was essential, and still is. If there are 1000 CPO on standby, that is fine. But the overall demand seems to be D. Used cars should be sent to Norway where they can utilize the incentives on used cars. Colorado also offers their $6000 rebate on used cars brought into the state. IL has just run out of their state rebate so, the Highland Park location may be able to sell more used than new if offered at a good price.
How hard is it to plug in a car. If people think plugging in at home is hard to do, it says a lot about those people. Same kind of folks who eat poptarts from the box thinking toasting is way too much work.
You indeed are right. I was in a hurry. It is as you say. 207 currently listed, more waiting in queue and sold 132 by now. If not more sold, which didn't enter the online action.