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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 1501 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 36 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:13 PM Flag

    April 30 is free advertising by proxy.

    Judging by the line items in the CA SGIP program, they have been in the storage business since 2012 with recent acceleration. $200-240M in planned CA projects is equal to 2100-2200 cars. vin number issuances are not rocking and are being given out at about 800/wk now and indicate backlog is generally worked through including many 70D orders getting vin #s the day of or next day after confirming. Simply put, they need more free press coverage about an industry they seem to already be involved in within California. An industry with a booster incentive for CA based vendors, as if the incentive was not only in their favor but 20% more in their favor by being local. I thought the grid had a problem, why spend extra money on an in-state bonus which lowers the effectiveness of the projects by consolidating monies to CA vendors and not getting more projects done with equal monies. Jobs program for the state?

  • Reply to

    Another one bites the dust!

    by keefwotgetsbanned.alot Apr 26, 2015 8:36 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:05 PM Flag

    Charging infrastructure? They took 25,000-30,000 or more Factories offline in the USA since the year 2000 and build,similar or larger complexes in China. I think they can do charging. Well, China didn't do the factory thing, it was the management at US-based companies.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    Reading TMC, one thread for the short term pricing did a little group research.

    Of the CA SGIP line items paid for, the 29.99KW systems, ie 30 KW sized systems which are 11 sited in cities, all have Walmart stores in those cities. There are no Walmarts in the cities which the higher capacity systems are sited.

    Is Tesla, Andrea James and everyone else crowing about 11 Walmart stores having 30KW systems with 60 kWh of batteries in them? Is this the actual news to really discuss?

    I want to hear more about the 100, 200 and larger KW systems.

    Analysts should ask "hey, just what is the KW sizing of those Walmart systems anyway...?"

  • Reply to

    Strategic planning at Tesla.

    by whoyoucallingamoron Apr 26, 2015 4:35 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Health care. Big time. Dwarfs cars and energy.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:09 PM Flag

    Payment is processed after interconnection. CA is dumb but not super-dumb.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    If aquionenergy can reach large scale, I think it offers a good alternative to Li-Ion. Right now, their systems cost a bit more than Li-Ion but with scale, could rocket past in terms of lower cost per kWh stores. Good third generation LiFEPO4 seem to offer 90% capacity at 0*F. But I don't know if charging at such cold temps is efficient. May need a warming wrap which lowers efficiency if you keep such packs outside. Meaning, cell tower and building standby systems in sheds outdoors.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 5:19 PM Flag

    If you said it, did you qualify it as an annual number or a backlog project number? We know the CA SGIP numbers. What we don't know is how well they will do outside their favored state.

    Keep in mind CA pays 1.2 times the incentive for CA-based vendors, which Tesla is. They get a beefy incentive for serving CA first and getting the projects right then branching out nationally.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 5:17 PM Flag

    Good point, one additional thinking.
    You are load shaving and dumping all afternoon on a hot summer day. Governor Brown's antics end up with grid overload and power goes down for four hours or more as they black-start Southern California. The 1kWh left in the box may be good for an hour or two phone recharging and keeping the refrigerator going.

    It will be called the "post dump dilemma". You dump for load sharing and wait until 2am to recharge. Don't lose power at 8pm. The you may not be your house. It could be your Walmart.

    Remember too the CA SGIP requires 2 hours of power output to be in conformance. Standby power from 8pm to recharge time is a window of power demand that still may be in the window of brown-out in some grid segments.

  • Reply to

    Guesses on April 30th Musk announcment?

    by fordadogs17 Apr 25, 2015 8:21 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 5:12 PM Flag

    And to make the point finer. You may say "your data? what good is that?" My data is pretty good and large investment houses who manage millions of shares will have even more data than I do.

  • Reply to

    Guesses on April 30th Musk announcment?

    by fordadogs17 Apr 25, 2015 8:21 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 5:11 PM Flag

    The window of secondary would be between April 30 and Q1 earnings on May 6. Just like in 2014 as the first visible window of Confirmation-to-Vin# Date was dropping, they throw out the Adam Jonas pump and the Bond issuance. That caused a pps spike and more orders as well as the production of many of the China-bound cars. There have been three dips similar to that and my data shows Jan 2014, Sept 2014 and now.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 12:35 PM Flag

    Keef, you don't buy a 500Ah at 12V to get 6kWh, you would buy four 200Ah in series at 48V to get close to 10 kWh and just under $9500.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    Typo - 343 are cancelled currently (not 353).

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:51 AM Flag

    Have you read some of the SGIP program data? Tesla's largest system reserved-monies for is in Hawthorne, CA. 3000KW (3MW) system. Also, a 500KW system in the same city. Is it possible that system is at SpaceX or the Tesla Hawthorne Design Center? If SpaceX, is that a nepitism-based kick-start their claim of utility-scale storage? That system was booked into the program in 2012 but apparently is not built yet.

    The way the program appears to work - you book for a project but then you can later cancel it. Of the 954 line items, 353 are already marked as Cancelled. it appears they wanted to get into commercial storage with their project bookings in 2011 and 2012. Most small sized but then they started booking larger ones.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:42 AM Flag

    Anything "could" happen. That is the risk that gambling, I mean, investing is all about. Tesla has a history of generally putting out a story and then coming in below the expectation. See 2014 and 35,000 cars to be sold (31655 actually). The industry of the large-battery EV is very small. Tesla is the only vendor. The industry of battery storage connected to the grid is full of dozens of existing firms already established. You judge if they are going to dominate in any other state than in California.

    CA's SGIP program does one interesting thing. They give a 20% increased incentive if the vendor of the product being installed is based in California. Repacking Japanese cells into a box and using possibly Chinese circuit boards and Inverters (to be determined where they are made) ends up paying Tesla 20% more for assembling these imported parts into a box and installing it there in CA.

    $240M in probable projects in CA is one thing - that is visible and on the books, recently projects are being waitlisted. But will they realize all that money (equal to 2100 cars sold) in one year? They need to give word on projects outside of CA and definitive backlog of orders, projects-on-reserve if you will. Otherwise, CA is the target market and is easily trackable via the public SGIP program data.

    How many new homeowner and commercial systems will be waitlisted for incentives in 2015 causing a delay in their installation until 2016? The incentives are the key to getting projects with some level of gross margin.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    No - but it sure was a poorly run company - they had a lot of potential, too. Maybe their Chinese owners will revive them and not manage them into the ground like the prior execs.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:56 AM Flag

    I doubt any other Li-Ion battery on the planet can claim 8000 cycles with 1C cycling and be at 80% DOD.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:55 AM Flag

    Check out the paper - google this: A123’s Advanced Grid Storage, Extending Our Experience to Distributed Resource Applications and Microgrids

    (notice that they say by 2010, they had 36MW already connected to the grid)

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    For # of full recharges, nothing really beats Li-Ion right now. Back a few years ago, A123 Systems, makers of a LiFEPO4 blend battery (Li-Ion using different material) had a 1C cycle charge/discharge going on their cells and it reached 8000 cycles with 80% capacity after those cycles.

    Even deep discharge AGM/Gel type batteries cannot do that. In 10 years, if the Aquion or other salt-water batteries actually do work and take-off, they may become a better deal than Li-Ion. Safer, 3000+ cycles and perhaps at-scale, down to the $100/kWh that Li-Ion wants to become. I would easily put a single-box Aquion battery cell (24 kWh) in my house over a Li-Ion or LiFEPO4. The price is not attractive today. But at scale, and if it really works, it can beat Li-Ion.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:49 AM Flag

    My garage fridge is the same size as the one in the house. I have run our 900W coffee maker off the same inverter. Gotta have coffee during a power failure. I do want to get a 1000W/2000W sine wave inverter as the 12V in the car can easily push that from the 1500W DC/DC inverter that recharges the 12V.

    Our home uses about 1300-1400 kWh a month and that is without a lot of effort to do so. Primary use is heat-pump, computers and tv and DVR. Two refrigerators. With those numbers, 46kWh a day (includes Volt charging - not every day). This is the type of situation that most people don't realize. As a standby battery, you cannot power your house and charge your car with a 10kWh standby battery in a grid outage. You may need up to 100kWh in a very large suburban home and it needs to be islanding-capable. We do not know if these 10kWh systems are island capable and if so, they are too small to run a house. For proper hybrid standby systems to work, they need to island, have enough power for 3-5 cloudy days and be supported by a large enough Solar PV system.

    Or, get a generator, which most people don't even have. If standby power itself was a primary concern of homeowners, generator sales and company stocks would be through the roof.

  • Reply to

    No Utility-scale storage - at least in CA

    by jmcvicker Apr 25, 2015 7:10 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 26, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    Doing a bit of internet review, I priced out what it would take to do a LiFEPO4 based 10kWh system. Roughly $12,000 if you include buying parts from distributors as a retail customer and utilize existing breaker panels and limited wiring. I found 200Ah LiFEPO4 packs (remember, no venting with flame). That price could be lowered through volume purchase and/or other factors.

    The primary issue is small solar installers cannot buy in volume but do things piece-meal. The one aspect of the Tesla/Solar City relationship seems to be implicit to their single factory, volume installer distribution chain. Money still has to be made so I can see that they will price the system high enough to take advantage of all government incentives available and they can lower prices over time.

    The discussion is "how much does the 5KW/10kWh home system cost for the box". The real issue is "how much does the system cost turn-key." It (the turnkey system) is not cheap and for what it does, it needs to be either a high-cost standby system for people who don't want their frozen porterhouse steaks to thaw - or for a peak load shaving device to both cut a rate-payer's electric bill and to help "smooth the demand curve" of the grid.

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