And I think the stock offering is to build a battery plant due to the recent "partnership" with SCTY and the ceo of SCTY saying they want to install a battery system with every solar install. Not all is "kosher" but it sounds good to the CNBC addicts out there.
One thing I have been holding back is that from my research, they sold 1000 in November in two EU countries specifically. But I think US sales are flat over Q3. They had a huge push to end Q3 but still only hit 5450. (Norway and The Netherlands). Both countries are due to HEAVY government incentives and the one Dutch incentive ends at end if 2013.
Garage? In CT? That was not caused by the volt but the guy's other equipment used to charge his home converted EV. There are no Volt fires on public roads.
You may be more right with a deeper GAAP review. I think this is why we had the pop this week. Funds and others setting up for some type of blow off top as we get through the year end. Then, some sell for locking in gains and after jan 1 many will close out short positions they took in the heights of eRly Q4. One number to watch is the reservation number that is reported in the Q4 investor letter. Anything under $120M will be rough.
I doubt break even non-GAAP for Q4 but sales may beat Q3 a little bit. EU sales are ok and they did load the channel during Q3 and are doing the same sell-everything stuff to end Q4. But i doubt they break 5800. I had thought 5450 for Q4 but was over estimating Q3 and i believe they were in transit to EU. I think GAAP loss will be (.37) or so. I need to look at my prior guess from a few days ago. With at least 2M more shares outstanding.
Ok - so how do you explain that if you buy a Tesla, you can take a tour of the factory. At the factory, they display the weekly production numbers, by day, on a public sign. HOW DOES SOMEONE SEE THE Number.. (ahem) How does an investor see the numbers without being an insider like this? Who is cheating? Tesla allowing "insiders" extra information that the typical investor cannot see. This is ridiculous and even though it should be investigated as insider knowledge and perhaps material information leaked to a select few - I guess that never will happen.
What would be fair?
- every Tesla boutique (showroom/ dealership/ service center) should publicaly display the daily production numbers on a weekly board to match the factory.
- Tesla employees should be barred from discussing product sales numbers with anyone.
Obviously, production can never go higher than deliveries. And publishing production numbers on a periodic basis is what all auto firms do. Either publish monthly numbers or make public the private numbers that are infact material information shared with a select few.
Great - well if you believe anything you are told without a deep dive into the tech, the industry and the people running it - and trust whatever you hear on CNBC, then go right ahead and take that risk.
Just ask this question to the guy who you are signing the lease document with. They need to provide the buyer with this answer up-front.
Because it has market makers who manipulate the shares. There was a whole lot less HFT today and lower volume. We are two months from the next ER release so it's going to trade sloppily for a while. All on hype and manipulation. I actually covered 500 shares today and will hold the rest short for a while. It is hard to trade on valuation when trading has nothing to do with a company's real value and future costs/assets/liabilities but only CNBC banter and day-trading.
I love shares like my PSX. Trade with a known bounds and even with volatility, they pay dividends and also grow over time. Today, they had news of a $2B buyback. All good. JPM as well - trades with the market and now hype.
Over on the TMC forums, there is a thread where some guys are discussing what they "heard" from Tesla showroom guys about cars being delivered. Seems like showroom guys are speaking "whisper numbers" (even if possibly lies or incorrect) to walkers-in. This should be investigated by the SEC but never will be.
Historically, under 5% of Solar PV is installed with any kind of battery backup. And usually it is done for off-grid installations and very rarely with residential on-grid "hybrid" systems and also very very rarely with businesses.
Gullibility of the investing public is what is in play here.
When the CEO says "our long run goal is to include a storage system with every solar system we sell" then you are looking at misrepresentation of the industry that they perform work in. It is like GM saying that "our long run goal is to sell a 100K mile extended warranty with every car our dealers sell". That is implausible based on the past-history of the entire auto industry. The CEO should be acting in the best interests of investors and that is to state REALISTIC goals and not extremely speculative statements which will never occur. What I would say is "We hope that our customers will consider a battery backup solution when selecting us as a solar provide. They have the option to add a battery standby system to their installation if they have a need for power during a grid-outage. We hope to see at least 5 to 10% of new installations choosing to add a battery system.". The way it is being spun is very amateurish.
By the way - you can get standby power just using an SMA TL model of String Inverter. Up to 12A of 120V power while the sun is shining. That is standby power without even adding batteries but only when the sun is shining. Standby power is kind of the snake oil in the current energy marketplace. Maybe made more mainstream with the "doomsday prepper" type tv shows.
In some states, like PA, there is state money for rebates of "battery storage" systems. I think NY's NYSERDA also has some allocation of that (unsure, though). What do we get for $15K? How many kWh and what is the total power output of this UPS system.
It is not just adding batteries to a system. It is more. It is rewiring breaker-box panels for secondary sub-panels, Charge controllers for the batteries, somewhat complex BMS (battery management systems) and more. A 15K battery standby system using AGM batteries is roughly 10 kWh or less. That is TINY versus the price. Natural Gas generators are about the best way to provide standby power. And for 1/3 to 1/4 the price of the battery system which itself only has a short runtime. Clearly these battery systems are only valuable if made large enough for 24x7 emergency power.
If you guys want to know what kind of market for this exists - go talk to a non-SCTY solar installer about "battery standby systems". And how few today even are installed using CHEAPER Chinese imported LiFEPO4 battery systems and not the more expensive, denser Panasonic cells here.
Having a goal to eventually install storage in every solar system is equal to Elon Musk saying "we have capacity to produce 500,000 Tesla cars per year in our factory". Both are WILD speculation.