Another flag I have to raise. In Feb 2014, I posted that Tesla should guide for 31,000 sales in 2014. How did the year end? 31655. What do I know that the executives don't? They were pumping 35,000 up until they didn't during the Q3 ER which was almost the end of the year. 35k was the guide until Nov 2014 - as it was in their Q2 ER July 31, 2014. So, that's how things work - no pre-announcements, no guidance shifts - just wait until the last minute then slip it in. And then "oh - 1400 vacation orders slipped" - really? 33000 - 1400 is conveniently 31655. They "hit guidance but the difference were due to vacations and logistics?" And those numbers don't clearly show in January sales numbers. Shenanigans.
Nov 5, 2014 in the ER
Consequently, we expect to deliver approximately 33,000 vehicles for 2014. This is 50% above 2013 deliveries, but 5% to 7% below prior estimates for 2014. Previous projections for 2015 are unaffected.
If they can end the quarter (Q2) at below 161.88 - they don't have exposure to convertible bonds until they come due. May be good for the balance sheet. I doubt that Q1 can end below 180 so it keeps the $660M bond in play for conversion until June 30.
The idea of creating sustainable transportation was a good idea. But it looks like the idea is to keep wealthy people churning through model after model, through upgrades and trade-ins rather than really delivering a good lower-priced vehicle to the masses. Selling the 692hp P85D simply was a ploy to churn thousands of P85 and P85+ owners "upwards" through "the next shiny object" (well, they got the money, let's ask them for it).
I was moderately bullish (on EVs and Tesla early in 2013 (sub $100) - but when the bonds were used to pay of the DoE "9 years early", I knew the game was afoot. Putting out the D early (was meant to come out with the Model X or perhaps after) was a sign that things were getting slim in the area of backlog last summer - and it was a good idea and what I would deem "required".
Isn't Co-Founder incorrect? He is founder of TSLA the stock IPO, perhaps.
Teach your children to not live by using the word probably. Then, they can have a more realistic life.
Think, volume growth comes with orders and interest. A lot of people like Jag F series or the new affordable Maserati model. But not many buy them. The issue is saturation ability in a $70K and higher market for a cool car that also has a fueling problem for some people's needs. Sure, you can charge at home but many routes are impossible with a BEV. MS60 starts at $71K. Longer range costs $80k. But you don't buy base, you option up. Soon it is 95-100K.
That is not sustainable without a much larger sales and service footprint. Some states now only have one or two service centers. They need some things.... More sales and service, way more convenient superchargers, more affordable models and then more adaptable OEM suppliers which have bitten them multiple times. Growing to 50,000 sales this year is going to be tough. A few more missed quarters, it won't matter how clean and robotic the factory is. A pretty factory is meaningless if buyers are not there to bring the revenue to keep it going.
Tesla is like a pretty young starlette in Hollywood. Eventually, she reverts to the mean and fattens up and removes her makeup. You can only put on a show for so long.
Hey now... The RHD orders still pending for the D. Buyers report that their DS are conveying some sort of engineering issue that must be solved, so those orders for HK, Australia and UK must wait a few more months. So,,that is backlog of some few hundred.
Did they check the right China? I thought management said China was not a problem?
(Getting to 55K this year without China and without at least 10K Model X is a verrrry long stretch) My own number is right about 48,000 total paid deliveries.
I don't think it will be below 8800 but 10,000 is what is needed to start the year that they say they are going to do 55,000. Maybe they will change guidance in October like last year?
Didn't the guy who left Solar City as their CFO last August have this to say at one time?
"Losses are good - it means we are growing"
That's how things work in Silicon valley.
You don't really need to plug them in. Let's say owners live 40 miles from the airport. They could drive in, park, fly out for 5 days, come back, drive home - no problem. Just looking at the truth of the matter.
Why ship them?
They stated they were taking orders going back to August 2013 and even had press about "opening up China orders" at their sales locations at that time. Interviews with Veronica Wu happened in early 2014 and other executives indicated China was looking good. Sounding good through
What happened? Did Wu and others say what they were told to say? Or were all interview statements complete truth?
Read the Adam Jonas / Elon Musk interview exchange on the Q2 2014 Q&A transcript. Really. Read it. available on seeking alpha. Tell me what was said there even came CLOSE to happening.
Outselling Leaf/Volt - that is an easy topic.
They introduced the "hot" P85D and the "semi-hot" S85D in early Oct 2014. They cranked up the interest for the personal roller coaster. Many Tesla owners traded up. Quickly - even after a few weeks to few months of P85 and P85+ ownership.
Deliveries were carried over into 2015 due to vacations.
Leaf and Volt both are waiting on their Gen II models. Volt Gen-2 comes out late summer. Leaf is supposed to have a 150 mile unit by mid 2017. Leaf isn't doing "that bad" but saturating.
So, Q1 looks great. "Looks" great. but they didn't even start building S85D until Feb 2nd for customers. They built a bunch of inventory cars too and shipped them out to sales sites as well. They will have perhaps a record Q1.
The country club got a new 18 hole course. Now, with 2 courses, it is time to attract more members to pay for it. This is the tough period of transition from a RWD company to two DWD cars but there is a level of saturation among the fans of the game. Assessment coming in the way of bonds? Who's gonna buy the fertilizer. It is very expensive.
Tesla is a great investment if you know how to play it. Short LEAPS and various near-term short options is my way. Considering another set of LEAP short selling just moments prior to the Q1 ER. Wide OTM. Buying shares? Let the pros do it. Shorting shares? If you live dangerously. TwElon may strike.