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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 679 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 10:08 AM Flag

    Fonz jumped two sharks. The tank and also on water skis. Those were the good old days.

  • Reply to

    Monthly auto sales - Sept 2015

    by jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:03 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:30 AM Flag

    Ford wholloping. I did not buy F stock on Tuesday and was looking to buy at 13.10. Missed it.
    As you can see - people want size, function, utility. You sell to the masses, not your neighbors in Palo Alto.
    Ford Motor Company total U.S. sales increased 23 percent for September, boosted by best retail results since 2004, also up 23 percent versus year ago

    F-Series retail sales up 28 percent, driving total truck sales to their highest level in nine years; Ford commercial vans post best September sales since 1987 – up 86 percent

  • Reply to

    What if?

    by bstaurrey Sep 29, 2015 3:57 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:26 AM Flag

    Still kicking myself for not buying @ 13.10 on Tues.

  • Reply to

    Monthly auto sales - Sept 2015

    by jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:03 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    Sorry - should be 12% full market (fleet + retail).
    Also - Volts down hard YoY for the month. Waiting for 2016 models and lower inventory.
    949 in 2015 vs. 1,394 in 2014

  • Reply to

    Monthly auto sales - Sept 2015

    by jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:03 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    GM up 17 %
    DETROIT – General Motors’ (NYSE: GM) Chevrolet, Buick, GMC and Cadillac brands sold 251,310 vehicles in the United States in September 2015. Retail deliveries climbed 17 percent compared with a year ago, which makes September the sixth month in a row that GM has increased retail market share year over year. Total sales were up 12 percent.

  • Starting off the monthly numbers: Fiat/Chrysler up 14%
    Many people wanting their "thrills" in a Jeep.
    Fiat Chrysler Automobiles’ U.S. sales rose 14 percent in September behind another strong month at Jeep and higher demand for other lights trucks.

    Jeep deliveries advanced 40 percent to 77,201 vehicles, Fiat Chrysler said today. Sales increased 4 percent at the Ram brand, 3 percent at Dodge and 1 percent at Fiat. It was the first gain in monthly volume at Dodge since January. Deliveries slipped 5 percent at the Chrysler brand on weaker minivan demand.

    Fiat Chrysler’s U.S. sales have now climbed 66 consecutive months year over year. The company’s light truck volume surged 18 percent while car deliveries were flat.

  • Reply to

    I just bought another 500 shares. Here is why.

    by lone_ranger Sep 30, 2015 8:19 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 8:31 AM Flag

    Farmer - there is one thing that could happen that jives with your position.

    Wealthy people like novelty. They have the money to try things. They can decide to go Tesla for the novelty and buy the cars day and night to replace their Jags and Mercedes. Some of the luxury brands show drops in their sales counts but they still do sell them. Once a wealthy family gets one, and if they like it, they buy more. For the wife, the business (many are on lease for business reasons, of course - for the write of is quite good). I read peoples' posts that they are picking up their 2nd or 3rd Tesla. Repeat customers also drive sales.

    With a few million Millionaires in the USA - the Tesla cache is there and as long as the stock price holds up, nobody has to "save face". Imagine if that tanked and people didn't have the SEG (stuff eating grin) when driving the car? Many wealthy people also turn on a dime when angered or put-off by what they thought "was the thing".

    Tell me what Tesla sales would be next year if their stock sank to $100 right now? What it if sank to 200? went to 300? How many bought their cars with Tesla stock gains over the last couple years? How sustainable is that to the "lower segment" of buyers who don't own stock but want a Model 3?

    Novelty has a lifespan. The EV industry will show today that another flat to lower month of overall plug-in sales will occur for September. In a month of Very Good automotive sales overall. Tesla owners say that they bought the car "for the fun". Fun is novel. Do you also invest in Amusement Parks, movie production houses and other "fun" stuff? When people have the money, the wealth effect is in play. The car doesn't solve any specific problem that isn't being solved by other EVs on the market. The car is different in acceleration speed, big screen and larger size. All good aspects for those who think they need it. But how many Tesla drivers typically drive alone during their commutes?

  • Reply to

    I just bought another 500 shares. Here is why.

    by lone_ranger Sep 30, 2015 8:19 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 8:20 AM Flag

    The most interesting part of the Vin # assignment is the lack of noise. When people order, they post and yack on forums and track themselves on shared internet spreadsheets. People are vain and want to share their experiences. Many post to get attention to their very own personal order and tracking of their own status daily.

    This recent rise in Vin # was not done in tandem with a higher "yack rate" and there are big gaps in reported Vin #s by those who report them. Either it is new blocks of possible-inventory builds - or it is already established MX orders who have decided to go with an MS instead after the reveal. People like to talk and the lack of postings is actually statistically significant. Perhaps it is a wave of orders overseas as the "ring of popularity" has grown from US to overseas where they do not share the same web sites as we do in North American. Denmark has shown very strong growth in orders (repeal of the sales tax for EVs for 2015).

    Oppenheim stated today that their model actually has Tesla not even selling "any" Model X this year - a few dozen or so (says it is a rounding error). Maybe they will push Model X production back some more, offer a lot of inventory at the Tesla stores of Model S and use the MX reveal as marketing to get people in stores.

    It is 10/1/2015. How many Model X do you think will be delivered this year? I suspect that building Model S inventory actually is more important right now than building Model X orders - knowing you have "paying customers" on the hook for MX orders means that they will wait it out but having inventory for immediate sale is actually more financially sound. It is the way typical auto-dealers do it. "You can have this car today!! - oh, and here's a discount to help you decide."

  • Reply to

    I just bought another 500 shares. Here is why.

    by lone_ranger Sep 30, 2015 8:19 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 8:12 AM Flag

    Tesla stores do not have to post their CPO inventory on the web. They can have cars on the lot to offer direct without the web presence. It is smart to put all inventory on the web but then they cannot "control" visibility that way. I have seen 5-6 CPO at my local shop with only 3-4 present on the web at times. Yes, they are selling CPO - and of course, this is how people can "get into a Tesla" without buying new at full price. Gives them a lower-risk opportunity of owning one for a year or so and not taking the full hit of depreciation or they are retired and have low income with low tax liability or they are young and want the Tesla experience but also cannot take the tax credit fully. CPO is the way to go.

  • Reply to

    Trip Chowdhry

    by td5221 Sep 30, 2015 8:32 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Oct 1, 2015 8:07 AM Flag

    Talked to someone last year who worked on the August 2014 retooling, the high speed line was setup for 400 per day. So, what, 2400 per week or so, which is above the "exiting 2015 with an annualized rate of 100,000" (which is 2000/week). Since they build battery packs and all kinds of other stuff in house, everything has to be in order without hiccups to hit such numbers. They seem steady-state at just over 1000 now per week (as said by someone on TMC yesterday who did a very recent tour).

    The recent number tracking for MX orders for US-delivery of production MX was about 35-40 per day in mid Sept. Now, it looks like they started randomizing the series numbers for those who order now to obscure the actual post-reveal order rate. This is the Tesla way of keeping things translucent if not impossible to judge.

  • Reply to

    3Q Deliveries

    by thomaspaine1955 Sep 30, 2015 11:51 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 1:47 PM Flag

    "Sales" : defined as eventual sales, based on booked but not delivered backlog database rows.

    I wrote annual sales would be in the 47500 area back in January. Looks like I will be very close. I wonder why a CEO doesn't know what their sales will be but outsiders can figure it out 12 months in advance.

  • Reply to

    Bioweapon Defense Mode Vulnerability Found

    by dinotrader Sep 30, 2015 1:42 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Always play the fear card. So "you" survive but nobody else will. Jumping the shark with a bio-hazard suit on.

  • Reply to

    3Q Deliveries

    by thomaspaine1955 Sep 30, 2015 11:51 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 12:15 PM Flag

    They don't have to announce this week. They may wait until after close Friday to not affect options markets. They only need adjust guidance during ER calls (November).

    Sales probable 11821. Good push in Sept for US deliveries - many originally slated for Q4.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 11:34 AM Flag

    Ford and GM will be reporting some good numbers for the monthly sales. Plus the market seems to have broken the downtrend.

  • Reply to

    Anton Wahlman Up With an Amusing Piece

    by montanaskeptic Sep 30, 2015 11:26 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 11:31 AM Flag

    Undying trust also is not exactly a great financial stance. How about a little speculation to go with the rose colored glasses?

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 11:25 AM Flag

    Appears California registrations across the whole plug-in set of autos for September is flat compared to 2014 September. Tesla 647 to 862 (as of Sept 28) - so it's up 33% in California for Sept YoY and month isn't over yet. Of course, this includes end of quarter push, as usual, the new P90 and 70 models near home-base and more focus in getting US sales done. Some buyers in California got delivery within 2 weeks of order confirmation. One example is 10765x order 9/8, confirm 9/15, deliver 9/27. It appears they really tried to serve the home market well in Q3 while slowing the builds for out of country. Example Belgium-bound Vin # 10103x confirmed 8/10 and hit production 9/15. Same day as the 10765x above. Why would it be so important to stuff the home channel?

  • Reply to

    Manitou 820 Is Not Thrilled with the MX

    by montanaskeptic Sep 30, 2015 10:45 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 11:02 AM Flag

    Coach handbag buyers don't complain about the price. It is the glamour and not the utility that matters.

  • Reply to

    Somebody Knows Something

    by temagami67 Sep 29, 2015 2:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 10:44 AM Flag

    Mutual fund managers are just gamblers with a good hair cut.

  • Reply to

    Price action makes zero sense

    by rickrossington Sep 30, 2015 9:43 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 9:58 AM Flag

    They got millions of shares in the $30-50 range and have sold 4 million since their peak. It's the offshores who have moved in to grab millions later (Bailley Gifford for one).

    Let's see how things react to the quarterly sales number, then the ER. I'm not short but I don't believe next year will be much more in terms of sales than this year and that the only real distraction is constant multi-year out talk of things to come. Still a hype/hope stock than reality.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Sep 30, 2015 9:52 AM Flag

    See dictionary: "shill" Usually used at auctions, tv shows and other places where excessive reaction is necessary for effect.

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