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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 1528 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 minutes 50 seconds ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Goodnight Market

    by fed_depression Apr 8, 2014 10:23 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    I don't think it's going to be that bad. It is more of a flight-to-sanity. LNKD with 1000 p/e ratio wouldn't last forever. The same for many other MoMo stocks. It is only "bad" if all your holdings are in MoMo stocks.

    I think this last week and this coming week are selling pressure as people prepare to write checks to the IRS for gains of 2013 and need capital for that from the large gainers of last year. If anything, the real issue is how the Fed/Yellen do on Wednesday. That is key to what happens next. What doesn't follow a 30% gain year in the market? Another 30% gain year. I'd be happy with a 5% market gain this year. We are looking at a small increase in interest rates and so this should keep things in check in terms of growth. We need to be able to handle a year of flat growth. No ecnomy grows forever. Trade the volatility - the options market is looking forward to sideways trending with some ups and downs.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Google is not a car company. It sells electrons. I am not johnrock.

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    The way companies like Oracle and SAP have done it for decades now is "if there is slack in this quarter, it affects all quarters in the future - close the quarter hard and worry about next quarter during next quarter."

    Tesla had a slack Q3 of 2013 (5500) and slipped pipeline into Q4 of 2014 (6900). That helped cause the "6900" surprise rather than a (6000+6400) "blah" or even a flat (6200+6200).

    Now they need to have a good Q1 to help get news out of strong Q1 sales to excite buyers and the stock price later in Q2. Kind of like the "tech" companies have done it long term. It is a type of quarter-ending psychosis which is not necessary at all. That the guy I wrote about had his paperwork and loan originated in Q1 while car was delivered after fixes in Q2 shows that for some reason, they wanted his unit sold in Q1. I doubt someone would have said "let it slide into Q2". JPMC also needs loans closed in Q1 for their own results strength as well.

    I posted last year that I thought it was smarter to smooth out the quarters and have a more consistent sale number. Here we have had 5500, 6900, 6500 or so. Why not just 6200 or so per quarter until the supply constraint is lifted? Because perhaps the ups and downs help whipsaw the stock at the behest of wall street who like it that way? They don't mind trading shares or options around their millions of shares in a high-volatility equity. If it was a boring "6200 per quarter, every quarter" then it is not volatile. The 6900 was enough catalyst into the Q4 ER that helped spur the necessary bond sale. That was the long plan - well orchestrated, if you ask me. It also kicked my little butt out of my short position because of all "$Trillion Dollar Industry disruption" blather from MS and on CNBC. That's how they roll. Are we disrupted yet?

    Still have the 5400 pound hairy elephant in the room - China. Ms. Wu needs to be working overtime. The press (Forbes) is pumping 25,000 sales in China in 2015.

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Many or most post their Vin #s so they are verifiable. It is a proud community and as such many want to talk up their experiences and share with others. You are welcome to go over there and post that you don't believe them and they will gladly post pictures of their car and vin # emblem.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Millions? Retail? Or small fund guy? Wondering how the big boys like Fidelity, TROWE and others think? They are playing with other people's money so they have very little anxiety. They will sell their shares once pps drops down to their buy prices. They don't care if they didn't sell into the 250 strength. This is the primary reason not to let someone else manage your money.

    If you are retail, didn't sell the 250 spike or last week's 230 spike and are looking at unrealized losses now, then you need to do more research into the companies you invest in. We post warnings here in order to alert you to consider your position specifics and to do more research. When you don't heed warnings (like "slow down, curve ahead" then please keep an eye out for such road signs. if you don't cruise the company's ownership enthusiast sites every day and keep an eye out for actual growth, then it is all on the whiteboard and fantasy talk in terms of CNBC bozos and blabbermouth "analysts" at the same IB that does the company's offerings (of course they will be "bullish" - to hook buyers).

    Put shorts on ignore if you wish, but maybe they are trying to tell you something.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    What is incredibly wild is that they appear to be keeping their officers and directors from selling their own holdings into the strength of the stock price. If you were a director or officer there - you would really have to believe the future is great not to be able to at least sell 10% of your holdings during the Morgan Stanley pump last month to 250. No monthly "pre-planned" sales at all. Unbelievable control over the leadership group. They truly did sell their souls to wall street.

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Realize there are mixed messages:
    - "We want to create sustainable transportation..."
    - "Traditional dealerships are bad and selling direct is good..."

    I never called Elon a Hitler. I said the EV Movement and Tesla fans also are much like the way the original German Youth Movement began. I merged the two and called it "Elon Youth". The GYM was innocent enough and wanting to change the world by their actions - I even gave a good youtube educational video to explain it. The EV followers (and I am one of them) believe it is some new and great plan for the future. However, when you boil it down and look at the details, much of our current society must change and there will be a wide variety of modifications to job profiles while it does. VERY much similar to the 70,000 factories that have closed in the USA in order to allow our capitalists to ship jobs overseas to low-wage countries. Primarily during the Bush era.

    The EV is an efficient vehicle - it will eventually replace ICE vehicles. It will also take out millions of jobs on the way just as we took 10 million+ US jobs and created 20-30 Millions low-wage factory jobs in Asia and other countries. Good for some, not good for others. World changing. I guess corporate leaders just want to change the world through company earnings and their stock price and not through maintaining loyal work forces. I would be a fan of the first politician who says "we need to take a few percentage economic downturn in order to properly prepare for the future". But no government leader will ever be "for" anything other than growth. Growth always leans towards lowered input costs. Cheaper labor, cheaper parts and eventually cheaper value. It is the entropy of labor that we have experienced over the decades since the rebuilding boom of industry following WW 2.

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    I have a post by Tesla car owner where a friend of his called him a "member of a cult".

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 12:41 PM Flag

    It has further language stating that if the sale is "reasonably assured". For example, when the guy's loan got originated on 3/31 by the partner bank, it is reasonably assured. This is how the software industry in silicon valley did and does it over the last couple decades. Midnight sales on the last day of the quarter were common for large deals. Isn't JPMorgan Chase an underwriter of their bond notes?
    ------------------
    From the thread:
    Tuesday Apr1 - Thursday Apr3: logistics of delivery organized although in each situation I had to be the proactive one to ask when my car will arrive. Receive notice that JP Morgan Chase loan has originated even though I do not have car (!)

  • Reply to

    SCTY will drag TSLA further down.

    by momono733 Apr 7, 2014 11:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 12:16 PM Flag

    The renewables tax credit looks like it is dropping in a couple years. Stock prices are based on future earnings and revenues.

    They have traded in-tandem for quite some time. The talk is SCTY will use TSLA batteries from the gigaplant to go along with solar installs. Rive (CEO) says "In eight years, solar systems may not be allowed to be installed without batteries". This is how he talks to the investment community. Not citing laws, regulations or other factors but guesswork. Especially since each of our 50-states have their own public utility commissions and local laws and regulations. Clearly, states want to eventually cut Net-metering down to wholesale-feedback. That is a big impact in most states where this and all lease-based solar and other renewables operate.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 12:06 PM Flag

    It would be nice to see more innovation out of companies.
    But we get time wasters. CandyKrush, Facebook, Zynga and delivery companies like Grub Hub and so on. IPO for GrubHub (GRUB)? It's a delivery guy. Didn't we see this in the 90s with the shop at home services like WebVan?

    Companies like CREE seem good since they make a consumer product that can lead to energy savings or ABB because they are widespread in energy production products and services (and bought PowerOne, a great renewables inverter company). But most firms are in it to whittle the consumer down a dollar or two at a time.

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    Read Investopedia's article called:
    "Short Selling: Ethics And The Role Of Short Selling"

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    I try to provide some of the reasearch side of things that many many stock traders do very little of. They listen to CNBC, buy shares, pump it and then sell when they get enough out of it. That is "screaming at the betting table". I like to think sometimes, tables should be overturned.

  • Reply to

    Analyst sees TSLA over $1500

    by high_tech_2000 Apr 7, 2014 9:51 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:15 AM Flag

    tslamaniac - posts like these...

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:14 AM Flag

    I still can't keep up with the greedy pumpers. The hype of 500,000 per year, non-GAAP earnings and ignoring things like the books and proper valuation. Do you really care? You could have sold at $250. Did you not?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:13 AM Flag

    This number was never given as guidance, however. It is a number that at one time, the NUMMI plant actually buily for ICE cars. Keep in mind too that ICE car engines and other components are built at other regional plants.

    Doing 500K EVs from scratch, including winding motors, building battery systems, keeping up with incoming parts trains and so on - has never been done for EVs. It is just a wall street pump number. There is no true compelling reason to think 500K per year there while the lower-priced Nissan Leaf plant does well under 50,000 per year in Tennessee now. Consumers will demand lower prices - not $40K or higher priced EVs.

    I think Panasonic knows that 500K per year is not going to happen this decade. Maybe 2030 if gas prices double - all the while electric prices may double as well, in tandem. The eventuality of EVs is still out there when oil starts to run down an oil becomes a $200-300+ barrel commodity. That also foretells the doom of the modern economy. This country cannot exist in its current form with $8-10 gasoline.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 11:02 AM Flag

    By keeping market corrections 5-7 years apart, new gamblers are born and old ones go away to safer dividend stocks. In the end, the safer stocks are the tortoise versus the hare if you buy and hold. Those still holding TSLA at $210 who didn't sell up when 250-260 are gamblers hoping for a new, better hand.

  • Reply to

    Where's My Horse...

    by stock_tool555 Apr 7, 2014 10:31 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    48% now. Almost time to consider taking it off. But I suppose it should be safe to run it out to Friday.

  • Reply to

    Where's My Horse...

    by stock_tool555 Apr 7, 2014 10:31 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 10:42 AM Flag

    That 215-216 pop was nice. Sold naked 225 weekly calls there. Already "up" 38%. The "morning headfake" is back.

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    I use one and only one login. I trust the TMC posters who are actual buyers and just reposted the item here.

XIV
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