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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 1210 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 27, 2014 1:58 PM Flag

    Out of warranty replacements may be somewhat daunting down the road for owners (who didn't do the "lease"). Until then, warranty replacements with refurbished will continue. MX will have two drivetrain units.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 27, 2014 1:12 PM Flag

    If you were interested in a Tesla now, would you order an MS or MX? Many europeans and Americans buy AWD cars to handle the winter. I would order an MX and wait until summer or fall of 2015 for delivery. I do think they need to start the MX line in Q4 for two reasons. Won't get 35k without and to also raise interest in more orders. The line retooling now is for MX support and no reason to keep signature orders waiting much longer, that is my thoughts for the Q3 call - they will be building prototype MX on the old line for Q4 demo rides and first MX builds starting in Q4 for delivery amongst the MS orders which should be caught up if they run the lines at 1000/wk. They have to produce 1000/wk on average for almost all weeks after restart in order to make 35 K this year.n i think MX must be part of that. Are prototypes useable as loaners? To whet the interest of MS owners when there for repairs? They need to make at least 200 demo MX this fall for all the galleries out there. I think all MX prototypes will be sold in late December to anyone willing to buy them at the discounted loaner pricing.

  • Reply to

    Electricity is the new oil?

    by hacker_boob Jul 26, 2014 8:58 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 27, 2014 8:07 AM Flag

    Trying to live an independent live, perhaps "off grid" or disconnecting from society is a much higher per-household cost than sharing the infrastructure and cost of scale. The EV and Solar movement sometimes shows, incorrectly, that it is about "breaking down" community. The most effective and efficient large machine we have ever built is the electric power grid. Efficient in the way that you can connect up a new neighborhood to an existing substation without much change to the overall grid. Selling 1 million homeowners a 6.5 KW (on average) solar pv collector is terribly inefficient. Building 6,000 commercial 1 MW Solar PV arrays is far better and would cost about half that of the 1 million installs. As well, those solar arrays can be regulated with other oil-based power generation (peaker plants) whereby they work in concert with all other generators as demand changes through the day. The federal tax dollars and state rebates would go much farther with large array installations than individual ones. Per-watt, commercial arrays are under $2/Watt now - homes are $3.5/W in some states and $5/W in CA due to the complexity and also the rebates and help available there.

    What we need to do is enhance it with local zoned battery storage, hydro pumped storage, offset it with wind and more river- and lake-based hydro (which infact is the largest solar collection of all - due to rain being driven by power from the sun), add conservation (LED lighting, LED televisions). One thing that could help in many ways is to close some stores on Sundays or how about Mondays - since we use the weekends for our shopping. Malls being open on Mondays are somewhat poorly-attended. The more you look at it, the more we have to start living a bit more like 3rd world countries. But per-capita, those countries use a small fraction of the power we do in the industrialized nations.

  • Reply to

    Electricity is the new oil?

    by hacker_boob Jul 26, 2014 8:58 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 27, 2014 7:56 AM Flag

    Regen captures close to 75-80% of the energy in a Chevy Volt, as tested by engineers. I can't say about Tesla and but it should be about the same.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 27, 2014 7:54 AM Flag

    You have any proof of anything like this or also many thing you have said? Truth is the only way.

  • Reply to

    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL!

    by tieisoptional Jul 26, 2014 12:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 9:44 PM Flag

    If you missed it, just go to colbertreport online and watch. Segment two and three of the Thursday show.

    Interesting point, Steven inferred he has a Tesla. Last year, he drove an audi A6 which I picked up from a conversation he had with Jon Stewart on one episode. I have to wonder if Steven either was given one to drive for a while or bought one. He lives in Manhattan so it would seem to be a good choice driving around the city and out. With his family in South Carolina, he could drive there using the superchargers. I am a mild fan of both shows and have been to several tapings of each. Might try to get to one before he transitions to the Late Night show.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 7:50 PM Flag

    When Model III comes out, I suspect superchargers will have a bill back system to allow buyers of the 3 to charge at some nominal rate say .15/kWh with maybe a $1000 supercharger access fee up front. Seems fair and also allows them not to have lines at the superchargers. In some out in CA there are times of waiting already.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 7:45 PM Flag

    Grids should be fine for the first few million EVs. I don't see grids being hurt by EVs except in CA with mid day charging at work and very hot summer days and heavy electricity draw for AC at work places. A million or more EVs drawing 6.6KW or more mid day on a cloudy day when solar cuts production and you now need a smart grid telling EVs to limit their charge rate due to demand issues and voltage regulation drops. EVs could do better on the east coast with more base load plants and grid complexity along with shorter commutes and heavy use of mass transit. Mass transit in CA is mainly the BART system on SF and some boats and Caltrain. In southern CA, it is gridlock much like around DC. If most commutes are 40 miles each way, and if EVs are 120 mile capable then charging at night when demand is lower is best for grid stability.

  • Reply to

    Tesla 101 - the drivetrain

    by arby_eye Jul 26, 2014 3:08 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    This motor, I believe, will be going into the 200 miler from GM. Due out about 2016. Motor is made in Maryland. Car will be made in Detroit.

  • Reply to

    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL!

    by tieisoptional Jul 26, 2014 12:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 7:33 PM Flag

    Posted today... Guy is in PA.
    -----------
    Ordered 7/14/14, confirmed 7/19/14. Late delivery for September. Received an email confirming an appointment for pickup on Sept 30th at 10AM. After reviewing the ordering/delivery dates on this thread, I am wondering how realistic my delivery date is? Any thoughts?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 7:22 PM Flag

    Electricity markets are highly regulated. They already set the wholesale prices for 2017. Something like $37 for mWh on the east coast in the PJM region. Then the local power companies face their local state public utility commission to manage rate increases. I suspect that low wholesale prices for years to come and natural gas helping out should keep electricity rates manageable if not the same for five years. Only in California where the CPUC is trying to figure out why they got themselves into an ever spiraling price increase racket because they want to be green using hydropower in a virtual desert conditions face a doubling perhaps. Sux to live in paradise when it doesn't rain.

  • Reply to

    JB Straubel's Keynoter

    by unleaded_fuel_only Jul 22, 2014 11:06 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 3:00 PM Flag

    CPUC is looking to crack down on net metering. Free lunch will not last forever. This is a big headwind for SCTY.

  • Reply to

    JB Straubel's Keynoter

    by unleaded_fuel_only Jul 22, 2014 11:06 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 2:59 PM Flag

    The plugs at work should be charged at a fair and taxable rate. Say .14-16 per kWh and .02 tax per kWh. EV driver should pay. However, the Ev community so far has been swayed by the "free" charging. Nothing is free and that is also not sustainable.

  • Reply to

    JB Straubel's Keynoter

    by unleaded_fuel_only Jul 22, 2014 11:06 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 2:57 PM Flag

    My opinion exactly. There needs to be sustainability done with much of it based on conservation. So far, all that has been done is shuffle around the deck chairs and billions made in the stock market. With every solar city array installed and Tesla car sold, it should be a requirement that people take Financial Peace University classes and agree to limit their resource use. Throw in a llfetime supply of condoms too. These guys have no clue on the real end game. They want you to buy their products and "believe" you are making a difference. Conservation and living smaller is the only true end game.

    Plug in EVs need no more than what the daily typical commute requires plus some cushion, to make it mass scale, there needs to be mass support for infrastructure and 120V at work plugin capacity for at least 20% of parking spaces. That would be the right way to spend tax monies, building infrastructure. Cars like the i3 and Volt with their extenders also are a huge benefit to the EV movement. There will also be denser batteries coming and that means more electric range for all PiHV including large ones. Vans and SUVs.

  • Reply to

    SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL!

    by tieisoptional Jul 26, 2014 12:48 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    Not yet, but keep your eyes open. I actually think nothing is visibly wrong right now and until guidance comes under pressure later in Q3, it is clear sailing ahead. But Musk on Colbert showing the grasshopper - that is jumping the shark. I would like someone to land the grasshopper from 2,000 mph and not a helicopter-like hover 400' above the pad.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 2:14 PM Flag

    The way Tesla acts, they seem to be saying "we will make sure that the Chinese governments do what we want them to do." But they do need to cooperate or face some backlash. No matter how much "stuff" we buy from China, selling into China means they have the upper hand.

  • Reply to

    Supercharger Network Growth Rate.

    by lone_ranger Jul 26, 2014 6:53 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 9:55 AM Flag

    Interesting thread on the tesla enthusiasts forum called "SUPERCHARGERS SUPER SLOW WHEN SHARED?"

  • Reply to

    Supercharger Network Growth Rate.

    by lone_ranger Jul 26, 2014 6:53 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 9:28 AM Flag

    Why not include in the hype the ability to use the CHAdeMO DC fast chargers as well? If the cable is available for purchase yet. $1000 cable lets a Tesla fast-charge "out of network". There are thousands of CHAdeMO sites worldwide.

    When 2 drivers are charging at a 120KW supercharger, one may get 90KW while the other gets 30KW - or a balance of the two. CHAdeMO charging at 50KW or whatever it is really is not that much lower than the balance shared by two SC A/B ports.

  • Reply to

    Tesla 101 - the drivetrain

    by arby_eye Jul 26, 2014 3:08 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    The Chevy Spark EV has something like 400+ pound-ft of torque. The Model S is generally overpowered and was done so to produce this kind of exuberance among fans. It is a "cool factor" but not a necessity for sustainable transportation. The thing you post above is correct. EVs will dominate due to their simplicity and low-speed torque availability.

    A family aunt just found out that she has a cracked engine block and so, she has done a trade-in for a new vehicle this week. This kind of thing won't be happening with EVs. She is a candidate for the mile range of the Model S - and even a 100 mile BEV. But she selected a CUV due to hauling requirements. When a 150 mile Sedan and 140-150 mile CUV electric PiHV or BEV is on the market, they will dominate the sedans. Once people get it through their heads that EVs are the future. Her price-range was 25-30K. EVs are not there yet. But when Mitsubishi brings the PiHV Outlander to the USA and Chevy does whatever they are doing with mid-sized CUVs and plug-in capability, you will see more people going electric.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jul 26, 2014 9:19 AM Flag

    BMI View : As EV demand rises over the coming years, we see it burnishing the prospects of li-ion battery manufacturers, which remain key suppliers to electric car manufacturers. We believe South Korean firm LG Chem, the world's largest EV battery producer, is well placed to capitalise on this trend.

    One of our core views is that demand for electric vehicles (EVs) is set to rise over the next few years, albeit from a low base. This will result in greater demand for lithium-ion (li-ion) batteries for automotive applications ( see 'Automakers Will Increasingly Look To Partner Lithium Producers', April 15).

    Although suppliers in the auto industry can risk getting commoditised, especially if the parts they supply are low cost and low value, we see li-ion battery manufacturers having greater bargaining power due to the high-tech nature of their products. At the same time, as more partnerships between automakers and battery makers take root, the latter will enjoy a steady flow of business from long-term supply contracts to EV manufacturers.

    These factors make us sanguine on the prospects for li-ion battery makers in the next few years. In this article, we highlight a possible way to play this view through LG Chem.

XIV
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