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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 1445 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    leasing the cars will make this a huge cash cow.

    by spre1975 Apr 9, 2014 6:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 9, 2014 7:36 AM Flag

    Good analysis. Pumpers tend to write their 1-sentence "blessings" while true analysis takes paragraphs and knowledge of the industry. This is another reason Motley Fool articles are so bad - they are short and useless.

    The number of businesses striving for leases but couldn't get "real" leases until now is limited. If a company wants to provide a luxury larger sedan to a staff member they could lease anything from a Lexus to BMW 7-series or similar. GE leases a lot of Volts and Ford Energi models. You know what their drivers do? Gas them up with their gas cards and don't plug them in. Fleet and business lease use of the Model S doesn't seem like much of a market unless it is in CA and a small firm "must" have a proper lease to get into one. To me, this new lease offer is financial-marketing but in reality is a move to try to entice USA-based sales.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 9:30 PM Flag

    They have a few billion in new bond money. They can put that up until the battery factory is needed. 1000 leases would be $75M in wholesale cost because of 25% GM. Fancy accounting is what TSLA and SCTY is all about.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    Perhaps the Leases will be packaged up as loan-backed bond instruments like SCTY bundles their leases into bonds. No different, just shorter term.

  • Reply to

    Q1/14 - 7500 cars

    by cd1572 Apr 8, 2014 1:34 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    Was a good distraction. Clearly they cannot specifically talk reservationsreservations there and want us all to wait for Q3 earnings in November to hear something. The Chinese press does cover things pretty well so sales deliveries will probably leak out with some real numbers by June onwards.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 8:13 PM Flag

    We have talked about true ownership costs and for an MS 85, many said it is cheaper than any regular large sedan. But writing up the numbers, it is close to or over $1/mile. Now the lease is slightly more expensive than that and you cannot keep the car. Because of the longevitiy of EVs, it may be smarter to buy rather than lease.

  • Reply to

    Battery life

    by raybans2 Apr 8, 2014 12:02 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 8:07 PM Flag

    Bs. I get well over 4 miles per pack offered kWh. Got 42 this morning. Not factoring in charging losses which every plug in has.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 8:05 PM Flag

    Leasing factors out to be over our prior discussions of $1/mile TCO.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 8:02 PM Flag

    The Keller Account would be one way to write it off.

  • Reply to

    Does anybody know..

    by beerz_now Apr 8, 2014 3:32 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 4:28 PM Flag

    For J-1772? Clipper Creek generally are quite good, American made products. And they have a variety of plug-in models so you can take it on the road (RV Parks, public plug-in sites, etc.) I use a Scheneider Electric at home which I believe is out of France. The unit allows for 30A charging so it would charge at 6.6KW (20 miles per charge hour) for cars capable of that.

  • Reply to

    Battery life

    by raybans2 Apr 8, 2014 12:02 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 12:17 PM Flag

    Why did you buy a 100% imported car? Buy American, support the local industries. I have a 3-year old Volt and with today's prices, would be roughly the same as a plug-in Prius with 40+ summertime miles off the battery then you get the engine coming on.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 12:15 PM Flag

    But not anyone who is a card-carrying member of NADA. They smell of elderberries.

  • Reply to


    by el0ver Apr 8, 2014 10:49 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 11:44 AM Flag

    Just waiting for May 15th.

  • Reply to

    Goodnight Market

    by fed_depression Apr 8, 2014 10:23 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 8, 2014 10:30 AM Flag

    I don't think it's going to be that bad. It is more of a flight-to-sanity. LNKD with 1000 p/e ratio wouldn't last forever. The same for many other MoMo stocks. It is only "bad" if all your holdings are in MoMo stocks.

    I think this last week and this coming week are selling pressure as people prepare to write checks to the IRS for gains of 2013 and need capital for that from the large gainers of last year. If anything, the real issue is how the Fed/Yellen do on Wednesday. That is key to what happens next. What doesn't follow a 30% gain year in the market? Another 30% gain year. I'd be happy with a 5% market gain this year. We are looking at a small increase in interest rates and so this should keep things in check in terms of growth. We need to be able to handle a year of flat growth. No ecnomy grows forever. Trade the volatility - the options market is looking forward to sideways trending with some ups and downs.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 7:37 PM Flag

    Google is not a car company. It sells electrons. I am not johnrock.

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 7:36 PM Flag

    The way companies like Oracle and SAP have done it for decades now is "if there is slack in this quarter, it affects all quarters in the future - close the quarter hard and worry about next quarter during next quarter."

    Tesla had a slack Q3 of 2013 (5500) and slipped pipeline into Q4 of 2014 (6900). That helped cause the "6900" surprise rather than a (6000+6400) "blah" or even a flat (6200+6200).

    Now they need to have a good Q1 to help get news out of strong Q1 sales to excite buyers and the stock price later in Q2. Kind of like the "tech" companies have done it long term. It is a type of quarter-ending psychosis which is not necessary at all. That the guy I wrote about had his paperwork and loan originated in Q1 while car was delivered after fixes in Q2 shows that for some reason, they wanted his unit sold in Q1. I doubt someone would have said "let it slide into Q2". JPMC also needs loans closed in Q1 for their own results strength as well.

    I posted last year that I thought it was smarter to smooth out the quarters and have a more consistent sale number. Here we have had 5500, 6900, 6500 or so. Why not just 6200 or so per quarter until the supply constraint is lifted? Because perhaps the ups and downs help whipsaw the stock at the behest of wall street who like it that way? They don't mind trading shares or options around their millions of shares in a high-volatility equity. If it was a boring "6200 per quarter, every quarter" then it is not volatile. The 6900 was enough catalyst into the Q4 ER that helped spur the necessary bond sale. That was the long plan - well orchestrated, if you ask me. It also kicked my little butt out of my short position because of all "$Trillion Dollar Industry disruption" blather from MS and on CNBC. That's how they roll. Are we disrupted yet?

    Still have the 5400 pound hairy elephant in the room - China. Ms. Wu needs to be working overtime. The press (Forbes) is pumping 25,000 sales in China in 2015.

  • Reply to

    How to book a sale in Q1 and deliver in Q2.

    by jmcvicker Apr 5, 2014 8:31 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    Many or most post their Vin #s so they are verifiable. It is a proud community and as such many want to talk up their experiences and share with others. You are welcome to go over there and post that you don't believe them and they will gladly post pictures of their car and vin # emblem.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 3:49 PM Flag

    Millions? Retail? Or small fund guy? Wondering how the big boys like Fidelity, TROWE and others think? They are playing with other people's money so they have very little anxiety. They will sell their shares once pps drops down to their buy prices. They don't care if they didn't sell into the 250 strength. This is the primary reason not to let someone else manage your money.

    If you are retail, didn't sell the 250 spike or last week's 230 spike and are looking at unrealized losses now, then you need to do more research into the companies you invest in. We post warnings here in order to alert you to consider your position specifics and to do more research. When you don't heed warnings (like "slow down, curve ahead" then please keep an eye out for such road signs. if you don't cruise the company's ownership enthusiast sites every day and keep an eye out for actual growth, then it is all on the whiteboard and fantasy talk in terms of CNBC bozos and blabbermouth "analysts" at the same IB that does the company's offerings (of course they will be "bullish" - to hook buyers).

    Put shorts on ignore if you wish, but maybe they are trying to tell you something.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 2:46 PM Flag

    What is incredibly wild is that they appear to be keeping their officers and directors from selling their own holdings into the strength of the stock price. If you were a director or officer there - you would really have to believe the future is great not to be able to at least sell 10% of your holdings during the Morgan Stanley pump last month to 250. No monthly "pre-planned" sales at all. Unbelievable control over the leadership group. They truly did sell their souls to wall street.

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 1:54 PM Flag

    Realize there are mixed messages:
    - "We want to create sustainable transportation..."
    - "Traditional dealerships are bad and selling direct is good..."

    I never called Elon a Hitler. I said the EV Movement and Tesla fans also are much like the way the original German Youth Movement began. I merged the two and called it "Elon Youth". The GYM was innocent enough and wanting to change the world by their actions - I even gave a good youtube educational video to explain it. The EV followers (and I am one of them) believe it is some new and great plan for the future. However, when you boil it down and look at the details, much of our current society must change and there will be a wide variety of modifications to job profiles while it does. VERY much similar to the 70,000 factories that have closed in the USA in order to allow our capitalists to ship jobs overseas to low-wage countries. Primarily during the Bush era.

    The EV is an efficient vehicle - it will eventually replace ICE vehicles. It will also take out millions of jobs on the way just as we took 10 million+ US jobs and created 20-30 Millions low-wage factory jobs in Asia and other countries. Good for some, not good for others. World changing. I guess corporate leaders just want to change the world through company earnings and their stock price and not through maintaining loyal work forces. I would be a fan of the first politician who says "we need to take a few percentage economic downturn in order to properly prepare for the future". But no government leader will ever be "for" anything other than growth. Growth always leans towards lowered input costs. Cheaper labor, cheaper parts and eventually cheaper value. It is the entropy of labor that we have experienced over the decades since the rebuilding boom of industry following WW 2.

  • Reply to

    Question for jmcvicker

    by tslamaniac Apr 7, 2014 11:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Apr 7, 2014 1:38 PM Flag

    I have a post by Tesla car owner where a friend of his called him a "member of a cult".

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