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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 694 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 31, 2015 5:51 PM Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    help

    by chazzman49 Aug 10, 2015 7:56 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 9:50 AM Flag

    Craft and micro-brew beers are, effectively, toxic to those who buy them. But people keep on clamoring for more.

  • Reply to

    help

    by chazzman49 Aug 10, 2015 7:56 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 9:49 AM Flag

    +1 to you guys. My views exactly.

  • Reply to

    da Price

    by jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 8:02 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 9:21 AM Flag

    ripple isn't a bad word for that sentence - oil prices go through a cycle, much like a ripple over time. Demand for fuels is increasing worldwide - and yet prices of oil and wholesale gas/diesel continues to drop. Is it a leading or trailing indicator of future economic direction? Some say oil prices will drop because the economy is softening. If the economy softens, what's left to drive growth? And growth prospects is the only real catalyst that keeps markets up.

  • Reply to

    help

    by chazzman49 Aug 10, 2015 7:56 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 8:39 AM Flag

    It's all about the hype talking about plans (whether actually truthful or imaginary) in the future. Not tied to financial results at all.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 8:22 AM Flag

    Right - distractions ahead include:
    - pump during Model X circus
    - pump because Musk says 2017 will be "billions" in stationary storage

    Selling well OTM puts is probably the best way to cash in for the time being. Let the funds buy the shares.

  • jmcvicker by jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 8:02 AM Flag

    Looks like various countries have had some Model S price increases lately.
    Norway 6%
    Canada 7%
    Europe 3% coming 8/18

    - FIrst, this had to be done prior to the Model X pricing. To stabilize the Model S pricing so that they don't get a rush of Model S orders at old prices if buyers were waiting for Model X prices and they come out high.
    - Second - foreign exchange not letting up on the USD/foreign currencies

    Model X feels like it will be coming out at a 5% premium over Model S. This goes along with Musk constantly saying "it will be the best ...." whatever you want to add.

    I have to think there will be a concerted effort to get US-based CPO imported into various countries like Norway because used cars still qualify for their incentives.

  • Reply to

    misleading : read this

    by kevindu99 Aug 9, 2015 7:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 10, 2015 7:53 AM Flag

    I am going to agree with you on this. Mutual fund managers use OPM to buy lots of shares of momentum stocks and hold longer than seems rational. Look at Bailie Gifford's latest 13-F, for example. They've been accumulating a long time and may surpass Fidelity soon. If funds can buy-up all shares, they can control the pps better. When you invest in moderate to aggressive mutual funds, you fuel momentum stocks.

  • Reply to

    Andrea James ( The Good looking one)

    by ahoykapitan Aug 9, 2015 12:04 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 9, 2015 7:39 AM Flag

    Some would call that being an apologist. I wonder how is she paid to act in this way? Analysts of outside firms should not show this type of "support in words and deeds". She sounds like a mom of kids' sporting club where they give everyone a trophy who participated. Also leads to kids who get through college with Ds and Cs who think they can pick and choose among the best companies to work for.

  • Reply to

    Stationary storage guidance was impressive.

    by lone_ranger Aug 7, 2015 3:36 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 9:30 PM Flag

    Why are they in california sites? Sgip money. They can get $1.75 per watt of power at their own sc sites. There will be far less incentive for them to install batts at sc sites other than in NY which is $2.20 per watt. Not kWh, per watt. Meaning, installing a battery at a sc site in CaA with 400 kWh could run output of 175KW for at least two hours. Even if not cars are charging, it can dump to the grid. It gets 1.75 times 175,000 in incentives to do it.

  • Reply to

    Uber - Tesla

    by oil_philter Aug 8, 2015 11:36 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 2:57 PM Flag

    Autonomous accidents will make GM's ignition key problems look small.

  • Reply to

    Uber - Tesla

    by oil_philter Aug 8, 2015 11:36 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 2:55 PM Flag

    Uber is a pimp. If Ford built autonomous Fusions and states allowed them, Uber would buy up thousands fpr $30k or less, each. The new age Nissan NV200 yellow taxi costs about $28k and has loads of room. It is an ICE but surely would be a great choice for Uber. Uber wants one thing. Cost savings by ditching their drivers, eventually. An autonomous car can easily be defeated by driving rain, an angry ex taxi driver with a can of spray paint or a really big bug splatter right in front of the main camera. You are in an Uber autonomous car and it goes out of service on the side of the road with no driver. What happens, a 2nd car is nearby and picks you up?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 2:17 PM Flag

    PBS has an online story yesterday about UN folks saying world population will reach 11 billion by 2100. This is a level twice the 1990 capacity. To keep 7 billion going now, we are overfishing the oceans and require fish farms and factory farms. Asia is where most growth will happen, needing at least a doubling of energy resources.
    Nobody is talking about the effects of that population should oil reserves collapse. With current oil usage, reserves may end by 2100 just as these 11 billion are searching for resources to replace it.
    Tell your kids what a wonderful future awaits.

  • Reply to

    Stationary storage guidance was impressive.

    by lone_ranger Aug 7, 2015 3:36 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 2:09 PM Flag

    The company has no projects in operation? Always bet on the companies with the tallest and widest whiteboards.

  • Reply to

    Stationary storage guidance was impressive.

    by lone_ranger Aug 7, 2015 3:36 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 1:54 PM Flag

    The international engineering staffs at ABB and similar companies dwarfs Tesla. You really are giving them far more credit for relatively simplistic accomplishments. Telemetrics (sampling, storage, transmission, databases and analysis) are college student level problems. You are really ignoring all-else in favor of confirmation bias.

  • Reply to

    Another Significant Increase in Finished Goods

    by temagami67 Aug 8, 2015 10:11 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 1:49 PM Flag

    The 79 m increase may be cars built in Q2 for Q3. But what explains the ongoing inventory of the 5000+ cars prior to Q2?

  • Reply to

    Another Significant Increase in Finished Goods

    by temagami67 Aug 8, 2015 10:11 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 11:16 AM Flag

    Realistically, an active selling staff will talk to a prospective buyer in their sales gallery and say "let's see what is in our inventory that matches your request and we could have it for you in a week". Not only can they do that but offer slight discounts for any features in the car that the customer doesn't really want but would deliver the car without needing to go build one up. They can stage white cars in some hot areas like FL while darker ones for the north east. Didn't the Chicago store have like 100 CPO cars earlier this year? No reason not to stage new ones as well. Paramus, NJ had 40+ CPO as well. "Production is up" is an analyst positive. But will sales activities be able to keep up with the demand to "keep up" with the production or will Lucy and Ethyl style results occur where stores start getting more cars in than they can sell out per unit time. All the while prices will increase for exported vehicles due to ForEx. 50K a year seems to be a relatively good run rate going into 2016 but a jump to 50% higher is an enormous leap from here. To do it, some new model, maybe another 60, will come out which is $8K lower than the 70. Something needs to be done to go down-market or fleet to keep up with a forced requirement to grow sales. Remember, the analysts all now believe that 500,000 by 2020 was the target but probably won't be met - yet they cannot hone in on the actual number yet - whether 300K, 350K, maybe 250K, whatever. With both MX and M3 not yet priced, it's all speculation and hype at this point. All the while burning cash along the way. Maybe they can buy more interviews in GQ magazine and keep propping Musk up on a pedestal to keep "followers" indoctrinated and handing over money. But money does buy fame, doesn't it. Based on what he said at last year's stockholders' meeting - he'll be gone before the 2nd set of bonds are due.

    Additive is not CAGR and many are using additive increments the wrong way and expecting CAGR.

  • Reply to

    Another Significant Increase in Finished Goods

    by temagami67 Aug 8, 2015 10:11 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 10:57 AM Flag

    What we cannot find out is the finished goods buckets between cars and then future Powerpack/PowerWall units. I suspect that they build a few thousand of each later this year but their value is relatively low. wholesale powerwall at $3500 will barely make a dent in finished goods while it takes three powerpacks to equal one car in finished goods inventory. I doubt they sell more than a few hundred powerpacks this year - all the while screaming that they are leading the industry. There is no way to know how many they sell. They need to account for that for the investing community, just like cars, and describe the # of units sold of each so that analysts and investors can actually build some sort of "color" to their involvement in the industry. Reality won't even set in for a year or more because all they will talk about is the hype around the "bonkers" pre-order interest. But forget interest, what is the production and delivery rate - that's what counts. And once some homes and businesses start to get systems installed, there will be reviews of the value of such systems and whether they are working as described. I have to wonder if Non Disclosure agreements will be involved in a purchase agreement. They'll work great in California with their crazy TOU and tiered rate scenarios but there still is little talk about batteries having a 90 to 82% round trip effiency and that they are net-energy-consumers in the end. The use of batteries is itself an additional drag on the aggregate energy demand of the population. It does allow change in the generation profile and a few peaker plants could be shut down. But the scale needed to make enormous benefits will take decades and will become a commodity.

    Tesla is doing all the right things to create a momentum product, TSLA. But it is also doing something in the storage area that is much like the China dumping of their solar PV modules into the USA. They are trying to remove competition before entering a market.

  • Reply to

    Model 3 update.

    by lone_ranger Aug 7, 2015 3:42 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 10:46 AM Flag

    Yes, while "true" - the number of regular car garages is much higher than EV repair shops, but of course this is due to the overall scale of the industries at hand. Bits of an EV that require repair may include contactors (Teslas have been known to electrically get welded shut due to high amperage draw), electronic speed control (MOSFETS) components, chargers, battery sets that go out of balance, animal-chewed wiring of some 12V components, mis-use of 12V batteries due to high cycling counts (yeah, Tesla) and more. Nothing is a free lunch and EVs will have their own share of problems.

    Just fixed one of our cars needing some oil leak repairs. Over $1500 in repairs. An electric motor wouldn't need that - however, they can get a punctured radiator system for the TMS of the battery, they could have an out of warranty battery failure, etc. There just isn't enough years in the bank yet to know what will the long-term prospects are of EVs. I think they should last longer than ICE vehicles in general but at this point, their resale values have shown to be lower - yet that is a great thing because people buying used Volts or Leafs are getting great deals and that puts more people into EVs at low costs. I was looking forward to seeing that happen back in late 2010 when the first cars came out - those who would not be able to afford them new now can do so. Base Volt price in 2011 was $39K. Used today, a 2011 with 50K miles can be found for $12K.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    The simplest number is "Total Stockholder Equity" which is about $700 M at this time. Anyone buying the company would take assets minus liabilities = value.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 8, 2015 10:38 AM Flag

    Powerful people love climate change. For they can impose new regulations on the people - while still trying to get their constituents to have more children and pump up the economy which itself uses more resources.

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