Sold out is wrong. "Mostly building custom orders" is what it really is. If they are sold out, why do they keep replacing loaner cars? Just build customer orders 100% of the time. They currently build a fleet of loaners so as to leap-frog sales ahead of some already-paid customer orders. They are only sold out because they are slow-building the backlog and selling loaners at discounts and building more of them. Nothing wrong with that but they could sweep the backlog through faster if they really really wanted to. You don't do that if you have a captive audience of "attentive waiters",
Should read "begin to phase out internal..." There is no possible way to turn the enormous ship that is the auto industry away from ICE in 10 years. If BMW goes all electric - great. In fact, if they do it, it would have to be done like Tesla only 10x more resource intensive. 1000 supercharger sites or more, DCFC at all BMW dealerships, a similar giant battery pack, lots of sales sites, removal of their entire ICE engineering teams, etc. OMG - I just described BMW buying Tesla for $72/share in five years!
But what will they do when they cannot charge someone $500 for an oil change? Their dealership model collapses with EVs.
I saw an MS60 on the lot - with options, $91K. If you're going to pay that much, go MS85 and get the supercharging and winter range of 220 miles or so. MS60 in winter without supercharger loses a lot of value. And right now, the value at Tesla is Speeeeeeeed (says Jeremy Clarkson). It is all about performance, not about sustainability or range. Those wanting to drive cross country and get free electricity are hobbyists and rare compared to the common man. It would be fun to do it - but for those who are retired and wealthy and can afford it - good for them. This is a pyramid culture and the number of such individuals is few and far between.
Ds are $2500 also, except in Europe or other spots which differ, maybe 2000 Euros or similar. In China, I have read various blogs and posts and all wonder what the actual reservation money taken really is. I think Hong Kong is basically the 2500 * HKD conversion, so about $20K HKD.
What I saw happen was December shown as delivery estimate in early August. Right about the time the plant was shutdown for retooling. If they really were thinking of a 1000/wk line running, they sure pushed back the delivery estimates. Then they introduced the D in the midst of that period and put the P85D ahead of people who eagerly ordered in August and September. Good customer service there. Also, a good number of loaner replacements were also built ahead of customers going into Q4. And now, those who ordered in August and September are getting their cars in December. Many who ordered P85D in October are getting them first as many of them may have been existing P85 and P85+ orders who converted, as well as Model X pull-forwards from late 2015 into a converted P85D or even S85D for early spring. That is the vanity of "first adopters". Make the lowly MS60 and MS85 buyers wait. Fastpass...
All we can do is wait for the Customer Deposits number on the ER. Until then - the curtain is drawn and we are in the dark on the reality of the order book. Which much of it was Model X (in terms of dollar figure) at the end of Q3. The Model X deposit rate has visibly dropped (ie. TMC Model X Tally thread). If people can get AWD now in a family sedan and even get some crazy horsepower in it, there is less need to wait for the unknowns of Model X. But sure, some families of Model S owners will upgrade and go to Model X when it is out. Some have reservations now who intend to cancel them if they don't like the price or have two reservations waiting on "Signature features vs. Production features" and will cancel one.
What I find is many P85D buyers are on their 2nd or 3rd car already.
Early Jan plant shutdown for a breather, then building cars for Europe (some Europe P85D and non P85D have vin # assignments already). Maybe some to China. So, makes sense to say February.
They will still intermix some extra loaners and demo cars into the line so that they can be at sales sites worldwide. All loaners are spec cars disguised as "we do our own car rental during service". And if every sales office does a fire sale at end of December, they also need to produce refreshed loaners going into Q1.
S60, S85 and S85D still show March. Interesting as they said that in early October. Even with the "really big deal" D-series release in October, the backlog size seems to be still be somewhat limited.
12/7, guy in Hong Kong says he ordered and got a February delivery date. S85. China doesn't seem to be as big a deal as everyone hoped.
Plus 1 on the post. However, not all consumers can think like this nor afford what you are saying you want to do. Many will buy used versions after leases are up.
Arabs are trying to kill us again with the OPEC production number. Short-term they may be "helping us" destabilize Russia, Venezuela and other things. Some say that the stock market hit we are taking now is due to sovereign wealth funds out of the M.E. having to sell shares for income since oil incomes are starting to slow down.
The OPEC damage economically may be temporary but what it should tell us is "stop buying their oil". If refiners have a choice, hopefully they are choosing local oil.
By not buying gasoline, you equally stop buying it from Canada,S.A., Mexico and American oil companies. There is no way to "boycott" OPEC oil. You can boycott foreign owned gasoline - don't use LukOil or Citgo (Russia / Venezuela).
Resistance heat in an EV uses more power than using waste heat in an ICE. Winter and EVs drop range far more than an ICE vehicle. What some buyers of EVs from all the manufacturers do is find this out long after they purchase. Salesmen rarely say "hey, by the way, this winter your range will be 30% less".
A Volt is an EV with a rarely used gas range extender. Elon Musk stated in 2007 that an EV with a range extender would possibly be something they also were going to build at Tesla. There is a Volt driver in Virginia who has 60,000 electric miles and about 50 gas miles on it - most gas due to his dealership driving it during some inspection activity.
Any EV to ICE comparison has so many variables. One big one is ambient temperature and whether heating or AC is used on the trip along with other factors.
A simple compare is an EV of similar class, say BMW M5 versus Model S P85+. But it is more complex than that. Who cares really. In this class of car - buyers are not penny pinching nor are typically not always labeled as green or energy efficient in lifestyle.
I do drive an EV. I also realize that fuel cost does not matter. TCO matters.
Simple. Many cars were stuffed to finish the quarter. Registrations happened in October. Nothing wrong with that burst. Won't see it in November. Will see more in Dec and fall over in Jan.
He didn't mention the tsunami of hurt for longs. Funds are causing that, actually. Thank the big boys.
How will they spin the 33 guidance miss? You cannot believe they are going to hit that. It is not a bear case but a fact. The primary issue will be how to explain the Customer Reservations during the ER call. That is light years away in February.
Those firms don't push fuel cells for cars. They are selling into the non-automotive market. Such as FCEL's stuff for fork lifts and indoor power needs. To replace propane-based lifting products. They were darlings in 2001 give or take. Now, just staying alive.
sounds like stuff spre would say. You guys the same?
Sustainable cars for the masses? Or vanity show-cars for the launchy Teslunatics? Pick one
Overdue? Should never have gone above 180 last year. Bonds this year and it went up further. Year of the momentum. Next year, some company will come out with a hat and soft ear flaps and IPO for $20 Billion.
Differential gears. Since it is a two-way power transfer (forward and regen) the differential gears must be straight cut. That means they cannot use helical-cut gears. Adjusting a differential with straight cut gears is more detailed than a forward-motion helical cut gear.