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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 986 posts  |  Last Activity: 5 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Expect 4Q2014 gross margin decline

    by caustic_fred Nov 15, 2014 8:57 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 15, 2014 12:19 PM Flag

    It is a mix. You have 3000 or so P85D to be delivered in Q4, perhaps a bit less. And various new-order deliveries. Balance that with discounts of non-autopilot RWD models on lots now (2% a month of age, etc.) and it may be a mixed gross margin.

    What I do see in the tracking of Vins is intentional injection of inventory cars into builds in August-September while making orders wait longer. This is because you already have their money and they can wait while inventory is built for a year end "push" for more sales, even if they are discounted RWD models.

    What will be most clear is what happens with the Customer Reservations. Some Signature Model X ($40K) would switch to P85D now and flip their reservation into revenue making the gross new cashflow about $80K for the P85D purchase. They won't deliver P85D much out of the country except Canada.

    By building inventory, and selling off the lot in some areas, you are going to see limited growth of Model S reservations while unit sales continue. I believe P85D was intended to increase new orders while they built some inventory for Q4 and held back building cars for real orders (folded in inventory into regular production order). It also was intended to sway Model X orders into AWD now.

    Example of a guy in Norway posting yesterday about his 50xxx Vin # (confirmed 6/13) just finished production and is on its way this past week. While they built inventory cars for speculation sale in N. America.

    I posted a couple months ago that I saw inventory cars coming as a sales plan for Tesla and the only way to do it is to build them alongside regular orders so that trucks can be filled and shipped to sales centers as a whole rather than partial fills. It also solves the "I want it now" crowd. I just wonder if they will hit $1 billion in Accounts Payable by end of year.

  • Has anyone asked Tesla officially if their 50K delivery pre-guidance for 2015 (or 2014 for that matter) includes CPO program deliveries? Certified Pre-Owned can be a money-maker when reselling the car and I have to wonder if they have changed or will change "deliveries" to be "specifically new vehicles" or "all vehicles". So far, it is unclear. The CIO said actual guidance would come with Q4 ER in Feb. Since the CPO program has been in the news a bit last month, consider it as a possible number "within guidance".

    50K model S can be 40K new and 10K used and then 10-15K Model X to keep the line running at about 1,000 per week. They can also offer what is becoming more popular - higher-percentage, even the sub-prime, loans on used vehicles through their bank partners.

  • Reply to

    Monday's drop

    by llpinter Nov 14, 2014 3:55 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 14, 2014 4:08 PM Flag

    A lot of covered calls assigned tomorrow or early today. That's how the big boys sell.

  • Reply to

    Playing Chicken

    by counttrarian Nov 14, 2014 1:25 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 14, 2014 3:06 PM Flag

    You can order one up now and have it by end of december. Many people getting Vin #s the day after confirming. December not sold out yet.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 14, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    Not lost. Look at finished goods inventory after Q3. They are still cars in transit. But I did see 8 at least show up at my local Tesla shop in the first week of October.

    Some orders who paid their deposits waiting while other cars built with RWD for lot sales and inventory were built ahead of them. A few of the Vin numbers I saw early October are still there on the lot.

  • Reply to


    by stockmessiah Nov 13, 2014 6:09 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 7:46 PM Flag

    In my Volt, I have an appx. 14,000 Hz noise from the DC to DC inverter used to charge the 12V. Inverters need to be sonically insulated if they have a chance of noise output. It is low but high Hz noises are most apparent with younger kids. Older folks lose the ability to hear above a certain freq.

  • Reply to

    Memory Lane

    by b1tbyjill Nov 13, 2014 6:20 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 7:12 PM Flag

    He did not state which four years.

  • Reply to

    52 Model S cars for sale on EBAY

    by keefwotgetsaround Nov 13, 2014 2:40 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 6:39 PM Flag

    Autotrader was in the couple-of-teens (40 ish) before the 'D' announcement.
    Reminds me of when I had Casette tapes of my favourite bands and had to replace with CDs and I had to buy another copy. Enjoyment has its price.

  • Reply to


    by stockmessiah Nov 13, 2014 6:09 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    batteries do not emit radio frequency.
    Electronics and motors can emit RF.

    Regular ICE cars also have batteries and wiring and even cell phone components inside (like GM Onstar). Your cell phone in your pocket has more RF than EVs do. Especially when the phone has no signal and is "homing" trying to find a tower. It raises its broadcast power to find the nearest tower.

  • Reply to

    Elon Musk own 75 shares of Tesla?

    by watchthought Nov 13, 2014 2:24 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 7:13 AM Flag

    They are in a Revocable Trust. Not held in name.

  • Reply to

    Germany ==== total silence

    by kbodie77777 Oct 14, 2014 8:50 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 13, 2014 6:45 AM Flag

    D option ia $5k now and not available on MS 60 any more. Only S85D and P85D. Cannot order a P85+ anymore. Only D.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 11:27 AM Flag

    News untold on the press releases yesterday but discussed here was the Euro-priced vehicles going up in price about 4% due to the Forex delta. I think Norway pricing also was said to be up as well. This means P85D is 6K euro higher and base MS60 is 3K euro higher.

  • Reply to

    Norway October 2014 === 36

    by kbodie77777 Nov 7, 2014 10:12 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 11:11 AM Flag

    And the reason people aren't flocking to plug-ins is a few items:

    - still got to pay for electricity (even in TOU areas)
    - People in general cannot get their brain around how a PiHV/EREV works. Binary thinking leads to "need a BEV with 500 mile range and 10 minute refill".
    - Cost is assumed to be more per month even with fuel savings versus a comparable ICE bought new. Many times, it is.
    - Insurance is more per month than ICE in many cases
    - news agencies fought plug ins and memories are long
    - BEV still does not allow people to get away from range anxiety
    - BEVs which have long range have very high costs for most people

    I like EVs - cool stuff. Have a Volt and think it's nearly the perfect car for most situations. But the shortcomings are long. Dealerships seem to dislike the move to electrification. Regular people actually dislike electric cars. Advocacy doesn't help fix myopic people.

    The best value purchase will be a lower-mileage 3-year old used EREV if it is well-kept. I liken plugins of all types as a personal hobby. It is for me. Hobbies are not mass-market. Even the Prius took 5-6 years to go from Hobby level to widespread choice and still undersells many ICE models because people have heard that Prius need new NiMH batteries after maybe 7-8 years.

  • Reply to

    Norway October 2014 === 36

    by kbodie77777 Nov 7, 2014 10:12 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    I work with a guy who reminded me of a situation he had recently talking to a German-based engineer.

    Do not tell them they are wrong.

    Importing cars into a country which is very deeply connected to their own performance/luxury car business is calling them "wrong".

  • Reply to

    Norway October 2014 === 36

    by kbodie77777 Nov 7, 2014 10:12 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 10:47 AM Flag

    Popularity happens when people's mass conciousness finds the "rational" choices make sense for them. BEVs are a religion. EREVs are a rational choice for today's community.

  • Reply to

    Just levered up my short again near $251

    by selloffin321 Nov 12, 2014 10:16 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 10:27 AM Flag

    Every market has two sides. Everyone is welcome. I wish it were different and only one side could "win" but without counterparties, you are playing chess by yourself.

  • Reply to

    Norway October 2014 === 36

    by kbodie77777 Nov 7, 2014 10:12 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 10:25 AM Flag

    Netherlands - Oct. (27)

    Double digits is good for these backwaters.

  • Reply to

    China Deliveries/Sales October...(34)

    by robskydives Nov 12, 2014 8:52 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 10:14 AM Flag

    I didn't see anything on ev-sales. Where did the China number come from?

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 8:33 AM Flag

    Just who was getting 300+ mile range anyway?
    At best, Tesla should have gotten 5 credits for all 85 kWh cars., 4 typically since nobody can get a fast refuel on any of them.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 12, 2014 8:30 AM Flag

    The problem with yachting and using internet is that you need a good gimble-orienting satellite dish to work with wave-action. Hughes has a satellite in this area and can offer moderate-speed internet. What is needed for ocean-internet the most? Off shore gambling servers, for one thing. Cruise lines already have internet for guests. I just have to wonder how far does the addition to the internet go?

    But if you are inferring that price of internet on a yacht is too high - maybe someone shouldn't be yachting?

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