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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VI (XIV) Message Board

jmcvicker 1075 posts  |  Last Activity: 15 hours ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Good thread on TMC titled:

    Elon Musk deletes twitter posts about P85D/85D efficiency increases

  • Reply to

    Musk speaks on China debacle

    by caustic_fred Dec 13, 2014 9:34 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 14, 2014 10:12 AM Flag

    Clear, coherent sentence structure from that one. As any good grandparent would tell their grand-children "Tell the truth, then there is so much less to remember."

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 25, 2015 9:28 AM Flag

    Some of the points about gas prices will be apparent in the next 2-3 months as monthly US deliveries of plug-in cars are reported (good site is insideevs). That along with the general lack of public interest in doing anything about fuel choices and the re-growth of larger vehicle sales during this gas price decline indicates that both the climate change benefits and the oil savings of high mpg and EV/plug-in sales are being washed away by the rest of the common community who just does not care about those things.

    We live in a "I got mine, jack" society and the outliers (like me or other EV interested parties) bought plug-ins wanting to help cut oil demand and mess around with new-tech. We are a small group of individuals. Just as Chevy only sells to a select # of Corvette and Camaro enthusiasts, the plug-in industry is based on outliers.

  • Reply to

    truth is

    by futurecartsla Nov 23, 2014 4:54 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 26, 2014 9:20 AM Flag

    Best car on the road is a paid-off car.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 30, 2014 10:20 AM Flag

    Not battery tech. They are ahead in Battery Volumetric Application. BVA

    EBVA (Excess BVA) is when you install far more batteries than needed for most daily driving - and have those batteries sitting around waiting for the occasional long trip.

    This is done so that the BEV design can claim "acceptable range". It is the anthesis of having a smaller, less resource consumed, battery - say 25-30kWh - and some sort of range extender (boo - from the left side of the audience who believe BEV is the only way). It is also enough battery to allow massive electric motors to run in order to thrill the owner with toupee-lifting acceleration. This is the new mid-life crisis car replacing the Corvette. This is "The Thrillectric".

  • Reply to

    250000 miles on the same brake pads and rotors.

    by level2genius Dec 23, 2014 12:11 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 23, 2014 7:50 AM Flag

    My chevy Volt brakes are effectively 99% as new at 49k miles. Volts use regen brakes for most braking while I would believe Tesla uses more brake pad braking unless you crank up the regen which also causes more expensive rear tire wear. I am still on the original tires also, at 48k miles.

  • More of this to come to add to the "color" of being a travelling BEV owner.
    poster...| DECEMBER 26, 2014
    Please please add chargers at Harris Ranch. 3 others were already waiting in line when I pulled up over 30 minutes ago. I am getting lectured by my family about the wait. If I have to wait like this here again, I'm cancelling my Model X and taking back my deposit. Thank you in advance.

    poster... | DECEMBER 27, 2014

    I was in Harris ranch yesterday and had the same experience. 30 minute wait. I was the third person in line. 3 more cars arrived when I was pulling in to charge.

    Every spot at Harris ranch was filled (not just Superchargers) and the wait for lunch (at 3pm) was 20 minutes.

    I crossed my fingers and walked to the swap station, but it was locked up tight.

  • Reply to

    The Great Battery Swop and Plop Swindle

    by keefwotgetsaround Dec 20, 2014 4:15 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 20, 2014 10:06 AM Flag

    What may happen is a hand picked group are set up to do swaps for free and collect the credits while signing non disclosure agreements. Then once credits are cleared, cancel the swap program as even MS owners think it is not much better than supercharging.

  • Reply to

    RangeGate mounting for the D?

    by jmcvicker Dec 28, 2014 9:48 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 29, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    In terms of advertising - here is one from a guy who just bought two P85D (his/hers) last week.
    Bingo ... The Canadian website where I ordered my car from says the range is 460km. When I plug my car in and charge it to 100% the dash shows 400km at 100% charge. Where are the other 60km? And why does the website continue to advertise 460km?

  • Reply to


    by crocster55 Jan 15, 2015 2:49 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 17, 2015 7:51 AM Flag

    Probably closer to 140, but three year target is more in the 75 range. Debt will grow and sales growth will be less than presumed. It will trade like a snake until then. I worry about the employees in the ESPP program feeling the brunt of this.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 12, 2014 2:28 PM Flag

    Tesla is a niche car company making a fast, big and nice EV with good range. It is not Apple. It is a huge piece of hardware only a few people can afford who want to give it a try. Some buy two. Some buy more.

    We need lower priced EVs so that people in countries with high gas taxes i place can go electric. But realize that the countries can also tax the crud out of them through excess fees on electricity demand - see California for higher Tier rates for residences.

    To have fun, buy a Tesla. To be conservative, buy a "lesser" EV. To be a conservationist - keep your current car and drive less.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 24, 2014 10:35 PM Flag

    He thinks batteries will let people get off the grid. The most efficient large scale machine man has made is the electric grid. Invented by Nikola Tesla. The cost to get off the grid is far higher than staying on it. He is foolish and sell side.

  • Reply to

    BIG QUestion - WHO DO YOU believe ?

    by kapitanahoy Dec 30, 2014 6:02 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 30, 2014 6:33 PM Flag

    Why would they want to "hide" the fact they have cars available? What is wrong with that? And at a discount too? It means they have more units to make available. (I guess it is the issue of going against the public statements of demand constraint and custom orders only and other things said in the past) Tesla could have made a public announcement about "come on down and we can help you get a car quickly" - - but they can't say things like that. It has to be done "on the sly" when talking with a customer in a sales gallery. As Tesla grows, they will need inventory - it's not a bad thing. The whole stock story situation is the problem - having to hide the fact that they can serve you now with an available car from inventory. That breaks the whole mystique of "my special car is made special, specially on order from the factory and I will feel more special checking the web site every day to see if it is in production yet and tell my online forum friends every day the status changes." The glamour is gone with "sign and drive" and actually diminishes the experience.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 24, 2014 4:51 PM Flag

    Interesting. Toyota already did use Tesla tech in the Rav-4 EV. The program has ended.
    daimler used Tesla tech in the early Smart-ED program. They switched to domestic batteries and motors.

    Tesla needs BMW carbon fibre experience more than BMW needs Tesla.

    Musk insinuates huge deals coming with Toyota during 2011 timeframe earnings calls. Then nothing came of them. Look up the 2011 Q2 transcript about the "irons in the fire" comment regarding Toyota.

  • Reply to


    by kapitanahoy Jan 3, 2015 10:40 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 4, 2015 8:41 AM Flag

    I don't think he is trying to bring anything "down". He is highlighting cracks and issues that most are apologetic for. He shows things like for a car with 99% satisfaction survey ratings, there are a much longer list of quality issues over the last couple years than the competition (indicating carowner/stockholder preference to protect holdings), problems with customer expectation with range when it is not "So Cal weather". If Keef were able to offer a list of collected grief to Tesla directly, they could utilize those items to make the company better. Instead of saying keef were bad for Tesla, maybe Tesla should listen to him and improve the areas that they have problems with. Including logistics, expectation management, some areas of engineering, etc. Any company should listen very closely to its harshest critics. If anything, Keef is unknowingly helping Tesla improve before they get into the arena of the real consumer - those making under $80k a year. Right now, wealthy people have more resources, time and patience than someone stretching their dollar to make a purchase. It won't be about acceleration forever. It has to be about meeting the mass market demand and satisfying them.

    Tesla is surely not suncube. It is a much bigger company and is not scamming in the same way suncube was. But it has issues like it would be out of money right now without wall street pumping with a 320 price target and issuing $2.2B in bonds last February. Tesla could not currently be solvent without wall street, ZEV credits and an ability to spend more than they are taking in.

    Past outcomes predict future actions. Which means more bonds, more debt and generally satisfied customers. There is nothing magic going on, it is the physics of finance and economics. The magic "stuff" is the junk that they spew on CNBC and these analysts who are trained to not dig deep into companies so that they are not looking complicit if things go bad. Cheerleaders were rarely smart in HS.

  • Reply to


    by crocster55 Jan 15, 2015 2:49 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 16, 2015 4:40 PM Flag

    I keep seeing parallels between Scientology and these "believers".

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Jan 26, 2015 11:04 AM Flag

    Based on where the industry is now and where it is going, his statements actually make sense. They are not relying on fantasy "growth curves" as spouted elsewhere.

  • Reply to

    And no, from BMW

    by dynamicviolence Nov 24, 2014 9:38 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 24, 2014 9:41 AM Flag

    Good for BMW giving a counter-point. Obviously, "we are talking" happens weekly for a corporate leader. Talking with OEM suppliers, future parts suppliers, etc.

  • Reply to

    Why I love $75M losses....

    by lone_ranger Nov 9, 2014 3:27 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Nov 9, 2014 7:58 AM Flag

    One thing I should add. The tone of lone_ranger about other companies does not take into account the R&D going on now at those firms for future products. It is like you are saying they do not plan to do anything and Tesla has already "won" some sort of EV "war" between them all. In fact, companies like VW, GM, Nissan, Ford, BMW and Daimler all have new plug-in choices in the works. The danger this all has is will enough buyers be found to pay back the investment in R&D and product development and tooling. The only ones seemingly not involved in future product design are Toyota and Honda, both could make a huge splash in the EV market if they did something. For instance, imagine Honda making a CR-V with 40 miles of battery range. Most CR-V drivers are suburban families who lease and drive under 12K miles a year. Maybe both have secret programs underway and will surprise in 2017 with something for the masses. The race is to the 200/20/20. 200 mile range battery, $20K cost, by 2020. The $20K will eventually have to be without incentives. A lot of cost has to be cut to get there.

  • Reply to

    " cost-out trajectory "

    by kbodie77777 Dec 4, 2014 11:25 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Dec 4, 2014 1:33 PM Flag

    There is a demand-thrust opportunity among the target audience of blanket acceptance on the general scale. The mean differential of energy distribution versus energy consumption opportunity costs have come in line with our expectations of a sea-change opportunity that is yet unsurpassed by past, present or future models.

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