About raising a secondary for a second GF. Great stuff. Actually, I think this is about to happen. It is the only way to disguise what is really going on. Brilliant. In fact, they stated last year they could be breaking ground in two locations so as to be ahead of the game when they choose. What if they take a line out of a fantastic Carl Sagan book "Contact" (one of my favorites) and say "oh, yeah, we have a second GF started, we really need to make that happen to book the stationary storage orders and so we wish to repeat the bonds of early 2014 again now so we can build it..."
Not far fetched at all. With Credit Suisse yacking up positives on the ER call and writing a credit line for Solar City of $1B for installation financing - who's to say they will not be a book runner for the next bond sale.
GF2, the sequel. Who is writing this story, Stan Lee?
You know what's interesting in the 8-K - look over Liabilities.
Liabilities are up from $4.8B to $5.2B
Stockholder equity fell from 911M to 825M.
If they issue $1B in bonds for continuation of activities into 2016, it appears that stockholder equity may go to zero. They need to dump a bunch of those inventory cars somehow. Fleet sales, special situation sale, six year lease, etc. This stock pump lately and stationary storage "story" has got to be to setup for a bond of some type. Nothing else financially makes sense.
Accounts Payable is a staggering 1086M up from 1046M. 40M more in money owed at this moment. If they pay AP, that lowers liability but eats cash.
No wonder they created a web site with a non-committal "Reserve" button and touting high "reservations".
From the announcement, I cannot tell yet if the number includes CPO sales. The wording is "delivered 11507" but does not indicate if it is exclusive of CPO.
Those are *NOT* reservations. They are "call me with info" entries. Look at teslaenergy. Button says "reserve" so now, they are flaunting that it is a reservation. No money exchange, no details. Just name, email, phone and zip code. This is very shady territory claiming they are reservations. Every "fan" and stockholder and college MBA student can enter info there and pump up these numbers of reservations. I posted last night someone who did that - got a call back from SolarCity saying "if you don't buy solar, you can't get the battery". How many of these "reservations" will end up in the trash basket after a minute or two of qualification.
Also, the reservation button was there *BEFORE* SolarCity said that they will not handle the 7kWh unit for peak load shaving. It is not a reservation.
Put up a page for $1000 non-refundable deposit for a PowerWall (shoot, I almost typed FireWall... freudian slip? premonition?) -- then count the reservations.
Built and Sold - for last six quarters - yet another 1000+ excess quarter. Gross inventory went up by $101M The 10-Q will show how much finished goods inventory that means, but it should be up by nearly 100M as well. I would be surprised if less than $80M.
Produced / Sold
Add-em up. 4585 total produced over sold for the six quarters. The only one not printed was 7200 which was spoken by the CIO during Q3 ER Q&A. Was that number correct? Was it embellished?
He should "show them" and go float a $2B bond to the market this week and say "stick it" to the govt incentives and opt-out of the CARB and ZEV programs.
A Narcissist always touts that their way is the only way.
If the GF is so huge, and he says that 100s of them are needed, I think he really should try to do one first.
Did you read her comment about 2020 sales of a number of powerwalls and powerpacks? I'm sure she consulted her "team" of "industry analysts" to come up with those. Given that there has really been nearly zero past history of these industries, she actually doesn't come up with compelling numbers. Her 2020 sales number for powerwall/powerpack is additive in revenue of 10% or less of the prescribed car sales for that year. But then she said recently that power storage would be $70 additive to the stock price. With that ratio, she is not qualified to actually give proper guidance. No gross and net profit computations of the storage products have even been determined or shown to analysts yet.
His 4-5 year window from last year's shareholder meeting apparently says he may not be there in 2020 when all the money is due.
One obvious thing is that during Q2, the backlog did wind down and thus, Q3 really relies on continued heavy discounting of old inventory, new orders and lot-selling. There is still a lot of inventory out there if we review the quarterly numbers. They "should have" been able to deliver more.
Qtr Vins built sold
Q4 6,900 6,587 6,892
Q1 9,272 7,535 6,457
Q2 9,178 8,763 7,579
Q3 10,435 7,200 7,785
Q4 12,091 11,627 9,834
Q1 12,259 11,160 10,045
Q2 12,315 11,507
3-5 years? In the 2-years spent in Nevada, the plant will be 1/7th the size "intended" for the full GF. Looks like Tesla themselves will take 3-5 years more to fully finish this one GF. The plant there now is smaller because it is a test-plant due to the inability to fully guarantee a market for more than 150,000 cars per year by 2020. There is hope they get past those numbers but no guarantee. This is all "push forward" planning. Talking about market size before it actually occurs and is proven. If they want to prove the market, take $10,000 non-refundable reservations today for 2017 delivery of Model 3 to see if people will officially put their money on the line. Take $2000 non-refundable reservations for each powerwall. Make the market speak.
Tesla can contract to buy 1.8 Billion cells from Panasonic over four years. VW could match that order and get the same "preferred pricing".
I've posted here many times that VW is poised to be the world leader in plug-in vehicle sales by 2018-2020. They are getting there with numerous models already on the street.
Oh - one more thing. and this will be "shocking"... :)
VW is the one vendor whom I believe will be the first to offer mass produced V2G/V2H equipped cars. Cars that can be charged at night and participate in peak load shaving through next-gen EVSE devices. I doubt we see Tesla do that because it would eat into their own battery box business. One poster on the Tesla Motors forum said "I already have a big battery, why can't I use it to power my home?"
Remember when I posted very early this year that it would be tough to hit 50K sales this year? Looks like Elon is indicating that maybe their rosy 55K number is at risk.
If WS had not done the deals, TSLA would be out of money by now and possibly in the same boat as Fisker Motors ended up.
They will add to the web site as they sell them. Just like banks with repos hold them and do not flood the market with their holdings. It keeps a market alive.