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VelocityShares Daily Inverse VIX ST ETN Message Board

jmcvicker 722 posts  |  Last Activity: 9 minutes ago Member since: Nov 18, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Subject to consider

    by inertiatrader Aug 24, 2015 4:45 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 25, 2015 6:14 AM Flag

    The dollar is strong mainly because almost everything else is weak and relies upon it and the US as a consumer state. Problem being to be a consumer state, you have to produce in cheap-labor countries or produce here with robots to keep the labor costs down. This isn't long-term sustainable but at least keeps the machine going a little longer. Gold is real money but money is like time - human-manufactured and is meaningless beyond holding implied value. Can't eat it. Copper serves us better than Gold, in fact, and is mined similarly. Land and water are more important than gold. Can't create more land and getting good water is harder to come by in some cases (see California)

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 25, 2015 9:13 AM Flag

    It was a slamma-jamma. Options expiration on Friday, China economy causing weekend angst and massive stop-loss takeout on the open. It's over. Buy like your cat food budget depends on it.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 25, 2015 9:19 AM Flag

    Obama is as responsible for the economy as much as Pee Wee Herman. The one thing he hasn't done is blown up too many countries (so far) while being president. Think back to 1991 and onward about the various incursions that have happened. Francis Buxton and friends were responsible for those events. Your doubling is pretty much due to a combination of leveraged wealth effect and thrust of wealth into the hands of those who can manipulate the market. In many ways, US markets have drawn in foreign cash from overseas (enriched Chinese and Euro and ME wealth funds) and are leveraging that pile.

  • Reply to

    Oil off to $32

    by oil_philter Aug 26, 2015 4:39 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 8:53 AM Flag

    I've heard 30s and even 20s. To get the glut down. I have actually been looking at small RVs for a possible cross-country trip - The RV industry may find a resurgence due to lower oil costs. Winnebago and Thor (WGO and THO). There is still a glut of equipment to sell but who knows.

  • Reply to

    Oil off to $32

    by oil_philter Aug 26, 2015 4:39 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 8:58 AM Flag

    At a get-together this week, one Tesla owner said that he got his early Model S specifically for fun. He even had a speculation of whether the company will be around in a number of years but he bought the car primarily for fun. You are right - they are not buying the car to save money. Those who want to save money typically buy used cars or lease them. Model S (performance) is fun. But can it scale to "consumers"? The i3 is peppy but sells poorly as new in the $40-50k range. I doubt it would sell double even if the range was double. The Volt and Leaf are peppy and save money on gas (a little) but people are not flocking to them. The EV "revolution" is going to take massive charging infrastructure (much of it "free" to magnetize people towards it) and education to take hold.

    Tesla knew that economy is not how to reach the initial buyers. So they went Insane. And Ludicrous. Vanity and Novelty sells to those who can afford it. Just as "space travel" and "solar pv" are for a select few. Those who buy Solar PV also tend to primarily be wealthy people who can take sizable tax credits. Fairly few poor people have solar PV on their shacks. But look at wealthy McMansion zones in CA, NJ and other states - there you will find Solar PV.

  • Reply to

    FACT- a new order for a Tesla Model S 70

    by rickrossington Aug 27, 2015 8:23 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:00 AM Flag

    The other models are regular October. Why? They have a looming production ramp for the Model X and there is implication that they certainly will not be doing 1000/week Model S during the September transition. It is almost September 1 now (next Tuesday). Late October deliery to the east coast is normal and does not indicate any glut of MS orders.

  • Reply to

    FACT- a new order for a Tesla Model S 70

    by rickrossington Aug 27, 2015 8:23 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:02 AM Flag

    There is approximately 1000 built per week and somewhere around 1000 new orders per week, give or take a hundred on each. The suggestion makes sense. Model X orders for USA customers still coming in under 30 per day based on Model X order tracking on TMC.

    US Model X Prod order rate is pretty consistent: Per-day:
    2015-January 14.1
    2015-February 12.3
    2015-March 18.6
    2015-April 19.4
    2015-May 22.3
    2015-June 24.1
    2015-July 27.8
    2015-August 26.3 (thru Aug 16)

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:06 AM Flag

    Past 6 years of what? Stock market ramp? Well, stretching debt causes market growth sure - his ability to grow the national debt and QE activities surely helped the market. how about the little guy? Since 2000 - about 70,000 USA based factories have closed (small to large) and millions of jobs sent overseas. There are various responsibilities for that including many of our beloved corporate leaders in the USA. Marginalizing the consumer just enriches those who can work the markets and financials involved. Soup kitchens and food banks are busier than ever.

  • Reply to

    Oil off to $32

    by oil_philter Aug 26, 2015 4:39 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    I buy used and am also just considering renting. Buying new? That's for suckers.

  • Reply to

    Oil off to $32

    by oil_philter Aug 26, 2015 4:39 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:18 AM Flag

    I can see $20 for some time. Why? Economic warfare, primarily (Middle East demanding market share) and they can pump it for $2/bbl until it is dry. They are like trust fund kids sitting on a gold mine. Next, more efficient vehicles - the EV growth and hybridization has helped a bit so far (not much) but could help keep oil demand slowly shrinking for decades while the well is siphoned. New oil off S. America seems plentiful. Etc. The $100 was an abnormal push due to the "pumped" economic growth over the past decade or so. However, with continued population growth, we still have a need for cheap fuels. Until population growth slows - it is a balancing act causing volatility in the markets and also means for those who control things to, well, control things more. This is not a true market, it is a script being played out on a stage.

  • Reply to

    240 tomorrow is my guess..

    by emawbig12 Aug 26, 2015 7:50 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 9:20 AM Flag

    Orchestration occurring with a ramp into the Model X "grand reveal" to allow for short squeeze possibility. I know it makes no sense but that's how these things work. Will probably see another bad Q3 ER print in November - but party on until then. The wizard is behind the curtain, for now.

  • Reply to

    Model S 103 out of 100, "off the charts"

    by dinotrader Aug 27, 2015 10:24 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 11:28 AM Flag

    When many or most of your product owners are also stock holders - what is the intention of going below 100% on all ratings? Seriously - how more bias-skewed can it get? it is a third-reich of the automobile industry. How did trying to be "better than everyone else" work out for "those guys"?

  • Reply to

    Does anyone here buy LEAPS?

    by rickrossington Aug 27, 2015 12:46 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 1:28 PM Flag

    Sell LEAPs, not buy. All you're doing is buying premium if they are OTM.

  • Reply to

    Why the reversal?

    by ironbar_nov8 Aug 27, 2015 3:09 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 4:35 PM Flag

    I will remember this past weekend and Monday for a long time. Some rumors floating around said that wall street used last Thursday/Friday in a buyer-shutoff mode to jam the market down into the weekend and China put icing on the cake (on queue?) for a horrid Monday open which is when big-boys bought calls and shares and triggered stop-losses during the morning swoon. All to blow lots of air into accounts for a rush into year end bonus season. Conspiracy? You think this is a free market out there? The machines are on, volatility is up and the traders are back from the Hamptons. Let's see what happens next. Sure wish value was what was traded out there. But it's not.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 4:37 PM Flag

    50% odds it is announced (if not opened up) Friday after market close.

  • Reply to

    Why the reversal?

    by ironbar_nov8 Aug 27, 2015 3:09 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 11:11 PM Flag

    They get far more support from Gov. moonbeam Brown than Obama. Obama wants to push for a $10k ev rebate and that does fall squarely in Musk territory, however. But lots of money benefits come from close workings with CA incentives and sales tax breaks.

  • Reply to

    Very overbought @ $242.99.......

    by s_haliz Aug 27, 2015 8:55 PM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 27, 2015 11:14 PM Flag

    If overnight is green in Europe, i cannot see why it can't pin at 250 Fri.

  • Reply to

    Tesla locks in Key GF Supplier-Investor

    by n0m0renancy Aug 28, 2015 10:24 AM
    jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 28, 2015 10:32 AM Flag

    Oh - significant debt and/or equity eh? The mine may have done this so they can get on the capital train and ride it to some level of sustaining funding. Invest in trains...

    It's the Walmart approach to force suppliers to sell at cheaper than market prices "to get the deal". Wonderful. This story will need a bigger appendix.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 28, 2015 2:29 PM Flag

    Everyone knows MuskGuidance(tm) is not worth much after 2014's miss by 3500 and recent drop to 50-55k. It's almost a widely-held belief that it is not what happens now or this year but 2020 is where the action is. it's a gamblers' stock - based on multiple out-years of speculation.

  • jmcvicker jmcvicker Aug 28, 2015 8:06 PM Flag

    Over/under MX Deliveries in Q4? 7660 if they actually start building the things.

    One wonders if they even will print the breakout of units sold of MS and MX or just indicate "cars sold" during Q4 ER in February.

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