I think they just about meet Q2 sales guidance (ie. 7500). The hard part comes later in meeting Q3 and Q4 "excess guidance" for H2 to come up with 35,000. But until then, wall street wants everyone to believe they will meet that and be "on their way" to fulfill the claim of "most important car company in the world" (per Adam Jonas).
There are numerous cars on the road today that people can buy and stop paying for gasoline. Is that the #1 reason people buy a Tesla? You do realize Tesla is not the only EV car maker. Just as Xerox was not the only photocopier in the world when they were popular.
I may sell $25 calls and $20 puts if it breaks above $23. But it's not interesting. They sell cheap EVs only in China to city-dwellers and offer car-sharing Kandi "racks" of cars. I think it is an interesting In-China play but surely localized. BYD and other firms in China will also sell small consumer cars. KNDI to me is pump and dump right now - need another couple quarters to understand their real viability. And, if bullish, sell some $17-18 puts for December.
People in Hong Kong get their first cars this week. many there are highly disappointed about their delays and poor communication (whether it was the original signatures due earlier this year in Q2 or the later units pushed back from August to Sept to November). Logistics isn't cheap. Australia is also another low reservation count country and they have no idea when they will get theri cars this fall (spring for them).
Pre-warming of gasoline vapors does help it burn better. Just as a cold engine runs with really poor mpg - it is possible a gasoline vapor warmer could help further than just a warm engine burning cold fuel.
But I contend that telecommuting, car-pooling, more mass-transit and conservation is far simpler than trying to invent some new physics paradigm in order for us to save on gas. Living below our means, spending less on junk and all that - all good for the environment, sustainability but terribly bad for the corporations who rely on us to keep the flow of money going so they can profit from us.
"Weekly production at the plant was 800 units ahead of the current project"
That is not even a proper english sentence. They ran the plant hard in June and probably saw 800/wk. But the plant MUST run at 1000 per week from August through Christmas to produce enough cars to make the 35,000 sales guidance. I hope the booked reservations are there to support the production. But we'll never know until quarterly results are posted. Q4 posts in February, 2015.
People confirming in early July in the US Getting Vin numbers today still have Sept delivery dates. No real slowdown except when they built a few thousand for China. They have to make it look like they will produce and sell 35k until Q4 when the real challenge lies in completing with a huge year end push.
I still think something comes up in early August to delay plant restart for one week and they reiterate guidance. They will reiterate guidance during Q3 ER in November. The Q2 ER is coming out before plant restart. Guidance doesn't have to be reiterated until Q3 ER. Shrewd move to have the ER while the plant is down. Wasn't the shutdown initially scheduled in early July? Let's see how this plays out.
I said yesterday that I wouldn't be surprised that it rolls into earnings day at $220 to set the middle of the range. 7800 cars sold does not influence the market like the 6900 "leak" back in January during the Detroit Auto show (back then the pps was 165, of course).
MoMo action lately like CMG and HLF indicate that activity in TSLA will happen after ER and that letting options lose extrinsic value prior to earnings is what is going to happen now. If the daily options trade ramps up on July 30-31 even if the pps stays stable, then there will be some MoMo after the ER.
I thought the CMG jump today was a good sign for at least short term markets. AAPL means one thing - all long funds will be up and NAV across the board is growing wealth effect and allows more margin trading. So, if AAPL is up, everything will be up tomorrow.
I think they "want" it at $220 going into earnings for a reason - not sure why. Just like it traded in the 162-166 range for three weeks last Aug-Sept setting up to end the quarter at 190. I think this is different but the volatility is gone now. Option pricing is settling down.
This is a quiet time - one week before an important earnings release (July 31). Buying or selling now is dangerous both ways. It will flirt with 220 through earnings next week then react. Get ready to be bored until August 1st.
The new line is in a separate location in the plant than the old line, I believe. But one thing that this break does. It allows more order backlog to build up. The Vin #s keep being given out even with the plant down. Another few hundred given out today. Vin 51,000 surpassed. I have to believe they will give out nearly all the Vin #s to confirmed orders (I think worldwide) by ER next Thursday. Already, some early July confirmations have their Vin # and won't be built for another month to two months. By keeping the Vin #s flowing, it looks like there is a lot of activity going on out there. It does appear that they will definitely sell more than 31,000 this year but how much more? Not sure yet. I do think 35,000 is going to need a huge China sales number, something like 7500. US orders seem to be picking up a little bit too.
The ER happens before the plant restarts. If for some reason they want to keep the plant down another week, which I doubt they will, then that discussion point doesn't have to lead to any guidance change until the Q3 ER in November (I believe actual guidance is only required on quarterly releases by the SEC). Correct me if I am wrong there.
The real future is the Model X for 2015 and how impactfui that is in the US (we love CUVs and SUVs) and some parts of Europe wanting AWD (Norway especially).
Some say 35K this year. But next year, I have to wonder if it is even possible to hit 45,000. To get this growth, a lot of CapEx is being spent as is R&D and especially SG&A. Profits? That won't happen until they stop spending.
Around NYC with .18/kWh electricity, it is equivallent to $2.00 gasoline for a 40mpg car.
That is about the same reservation ratio as Model S was back in early 2013. That was before the per-day rate fell to the 20s and they stopped giving out reservation #s.
Here are my numbers for Model X US reservations (through July 21).
This is USA only (Canada is separate - see TMC Tally thread)
Q4 - 2013
17.91 Per-Day (oh - the fish!)
25.28 Per-Day (Sturgeons and pike)
23.38 Per-Day (more Pike, less Sturgeons)
China is roughly 9-10 per day. World total per day is just over 40/calendar day. Seems to be roughly flat right now and will ramp up when they start to offer pricing. One guy on TMC yesterday was talking about his reservation was intended to be an early reservation that was intended to sell immediately after taking delivery so he could cash in on sort of a scalping activity.