I wouldn't be surprised if the short interest number after adcom remains the same if not higher. For one, most shorts who took a position are probably still in the money even after a relatively positive panel vote, with pps staying below 2, most probably did not have the urge to cover...if anything they probably doubled down on their position (much like longs doubling down when pps go down) knowing they have few weeks/months to cover and with the possibility of the pps drifting lower. Well, they are correct for now, but once we see a reversal, we will go up fast because even these shorts realize that FDA clearance is likely after we cleared the adcom uncertainties and the rush to cover will be inevitable especially there's no set date of FDA clearance. Both longs and shorts would be speculating when pps starts to go up that 'oh, clearance must be near, decision must be coming..' and this is why no PDUFA date is not bad, the anticipation alone with exact date being unknown will help our pps go higher rather quickly. I know some are banking that insurance coverage will be a challenge, but with a good partner, we can prove the non believers wrong. Shorts are thinking, because insurance coverage was a challenge to Belviq and qsymia that the same thing will happen to our device. I remember the tesla shorts theory..just because there had not been any successful electric car to penetrate the market that tesla will also fail. Well, we all know how that ended up. All IMHO.
I highly doubt this is due to army contract, heck one individual can purchase 50k shares if so wanted. My point is this is one maybe 2 people from this message board getting excited with the positive discussions about an army award. Nothing more nothing less. I too am excited, but will wait till next quarterly and have a feel about their plan for financing moving forward. After all, I feel over invested in this anyway already.
Not necessarily. Here's a post from bammupyours that's shows how long it look for an FDA clearance in some devices..
bammupyours • Jun 18, 2014 3:43 PM Flag
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Great post, portfolio manager. Are you aware of any devices that had a negative AdCom vote on efficacy, a positive vote on benefit/risk, and that were recently approved? Here are few to jump-start your search:
Safety vote: 9 y, 1n, 1a; Efficacy vote: 5y, 3n, 3a; Benefit/risk: 5y, 1n, 5a
Approval date: 1/1/2014
Safety vote: 11y, 0n, 0a; Efficacy vote: 4y, 7n, a0; Benefit/risk: 6y, 4n, 1a
Safety vote: 8y, 0n, 0a; Efficacy vote: 4y, 5n, a0; Benefit/risk: 5y, 3n, 0a
Gives shorts and manipulators opportunity to drag pps since there is no set clearance date unlike drug approval. Well, even with PDUFA date, FDA manages to fumble that at times. I think shorts are fairly comfortable since they're guessing we are at least 3 months out, maybe up to 7 months or longer before a decision is handed and it causes impatient longs and day traders to sell and shorts to capitalize.
The fact that FDA wants to have an ADCOM done regardless of circumstances shows volume and FDA's eagerness to get this device to market as soon as possible to help suffering individuals where there is very limited procedure/device options available that's effective and safe. Basically, FDA just wanted to cover their behind to hear it from the panel if what they already have in mind based in the data presented by the sponsor that VBLOC's benefits outwiefhs the risks..now it's confirmed with flying colors..cheers!
We went up almost 1.00 pps in December with 20+million shares traded when 18 month data was released on the news. Hopefully a pr tomorrow.
Maybe I'm reading too much in to this board as the sentiment seems ATM/ shares were issued yesterday, but of course I'd rather have them do it at a much higher pps. Also, no sec filing, I guess partnership talk with potential suitors are alive and well and still could happen before FDA clearance.
If it is true that ATM was most likely accessed yesterday in the open market, management probably has no serious potential partnership yet in negotiation ( that would provide an initial payment as part of the terms). I was hoping they we will have a partnership announcement soon, but it's looking like it won't happen till after FDA clearance in few months. Any thoughts on this?
I'm afraid you're correct. At least till 'accumulation phase' is over. I'm still comfortable about my 1.73 buy as I believe we will eventually see a double in anticipation of FDA clearance alone.
A few more people on this board have the same line of thinking based on pps action yesterday. Question is how much longer are we going to see this mm suppression...till after OPEX??
DC, read your previous posts..I, too doubled my position today. Btw, do you still believe the company might raise money before the FDA clearance is rendered? Wouldn't you think that some institution might offer the company to buy a few million shares after a favorable adcom today and in essence we get diluted but the company will be more financially stable? Ang thoughts?