NQ looks like a 'falling knife' Congo. Sorry, but I don't think I want any of this action. For a # 1 hold that looks just about as risky as you can get. How do you see this one emerging from the 'hole'?
Hi Winkles: got an invite from you and theeFalcon so joined the new group. I appreciate the invite and will converse with all of the AVNR long timers 'over there'. Thanks again.
I hate to say it but with every day that passes without a new offer, the chance of another offer diminishes considerably. JMHO of course.
Everybody steps in a little mud once in a while. You just happened to step in a bucket of sh****t. Oh well. Have a great Christmas Congo. Go buy some more LU.
I need to throw my 'two cents' worth in too. While I am not thrilled with KK management abilities, I would have to say he did a great deal better than almost all of his predecessors. That said, I often wondered why KK never got bold enough to do some 'insider purchases' that would have helped to show his so called 'confidence' in the company. Maybe he never did this because he was handed so many (free) option shares that he really did not need to put any of his own money at risk. At any rate, that was a huge disappointment. And, that mentality (on KK's part) was probably the same MO that he used when striking the most recent deal and not 'shopping the company'. And, look how the buy out contract was 'arranged': if there is another offer KK doesn't have to do any work to convince some other company to buy AVNR. Pretty self serving approach if you ask me. Sour grapes - I know - but I did have to get it off my chest. GLTA
as each day passes without a new competing/alternative offer, I think our chances for a offer diminish considerably. What are your thoughts?
I am still hopeful that one will surface, but my expectations right now are not very great. That said, there is enough 'speculation' out there to buoy the price above $17 (a few cents) so that is a positive although that could disappear in a heartbeat.
I am giving it a couple more dates before I reassess the situation. GLTA
The only thing I have to say is this: Within the last few years I have been lucky enough to own stock in two companies (other than AVNR) that got bought out/acquired. In both cases, between the time the deals were announced and when the deals actually closed, the stock price was discounted anywhere from 2% to 7% below the buyout price. In the 7% case the purchaser failed to acquire the necessary shares on the first attempt and had to raise their offer about 10% (and that offer eventually succeeded).
AVNR is acting differently. In AVNR's case the discount is less that 1% (1/2 of 1% to be exact) and (as of today) actually exceeded the buyout price for a while today. In my opinion, this certainly appears as a possible sign that another offer may eventually surface. Now, we may not actually see another offer, but my guess is that we will. And, if we do, I am thinking is will be substantially better than $17. In fact, it has to be at least $0.60 a share higher just to offset the current penalty that is part of the current buyout plan (i.e. $90 million penalty). If we get an offer (and that is a big IF), I would not be surprised at all if it was in the $21 to $23 range. Just my two cents of course. GLTA
is somebody just 'playing games' with this brief pop above $17? I doubt we will stay above $17 long if there are no 'legs' under the current bid/ask scenario. We will see!!!!
Sarge, thanks for all of your efforts throughout the years!! You helped bring sanity when there wasn't any available, hope when there was only despair and reason when there was nothing but irrational thinking in play. I, for one, appreciate your efforts and, yes, I also hope there is at least one competing offer coming that will boost AVNR price closer to where it should have been on the first offer. With a little luck, maybe this will be a really good year to celebrate Christmas (from a financial perspective at least). Enjoy the day and weekend and we will know our fate shortly in my opinion. That said, if there is not another offer, then we just need to be pleased with where we are know (which could be a lot worse - remember the days of $0.49 pps?).
What does a $90 million penalty amount to in terms of share price? - less than $1.00 a share (probably closer to $0.60). I am sure this is not a major obstacle for a company that is really interested in adding to their pipeline. A number of Big Pharmas are out there that are probably having arranging board meetings now. BB know who they are - you can count on that.
Stranger things have happened. You just never know. We do know the BB has the clout to swing this one way or the other. I am sure they think a 100% return is better than a 70% return. Just saying!!!
don't be surprised in Bakers Brothers doesn't make some calls to other US phramas. I can't imagine that there aren't a few US companies out there that are reluctant to let this AVNR 'fish' get away. Substantial potential here in my opinion. I think we will know more in a few days. GLTA
Thanks for your wisdom Congo. Let's touch base again when we are approaching $20. Better eat your pride and jump on board again before you really hate yourself for not acting. The train is leaving the station soon! (again)
Good thing you posted today. If you are lucky, most people will forget how wrong you are (today) on Monday. You're a loser legend. Get use to it.
that very little of Avanir's current market valuation (i.e. price) is based on AVP-825 approval. Can you imagine where we would be right now if AVP-825 was approved? So, with AVP-825 approval still 'waiting in the wings' (down the road) we still have to be very optimistic going forward. This is a mild setback - not a major one. GLTA
Good point Trader. I would think there would be a wealth of data available on the 'human factor testing' side of things for this new device. Now, how soon that could be provided to FDA and 'would it be acceptable' to them are outstanding questions. Time will tell. I doubt that this is a major obstacle but it certainly delays FDA's decision (IMO).
you have to be nuts to be short Avanir. All the MMs know it and all the shorts know it, but they will continue to manipulate the trading as long as they can. However, the problem is, they can't do it forever. Sooner or later their time will run out. Stay 'Long an Strong' and you will be glad you did. Have a great weekend. GLTA