Likely to go down - I am holding the 585 puts as a gamble - will sell for 5 bucks - Wish me luck !!!! The morning action could be a head fake - My Opinion !
This has been trading this pattern ever since the split with no real meaningful direction. I dont do technical analysis but trade volatility. Last Friday the premiums for this week were so low and the volatility really collapsed. Significant moves happen when the IV collapses like this and entered a delta neutral position expecting a 25 dollar min move on GOOGL. Expectation was that the stock is moving to 580 (GOOGL) or 630. Went as far low as 590 and then bounced back. Not sure what the price action is going to be next 2 days but my bet is on 580. I sold my position for a 65% gain but still perplexed why this is not headed towards 580 yet. Will bet again for this week if the stock hits 587.5 at some point before Friday Noon.
Hello - What action did you specifically see. I do not see a drop in option premiums yet. Could you elaborate please - Thanks much in advance !
Options Implied Volatility is at a historic low relative to the VIX - Does it mean the stock is going to move big next week OR does it mean that the stock will have little movement considering the options premiums at rock bottom - Any thoughts ?
So Are you expecting that the longs will be in for a rude shock soon ! Thanks as always for your insight ! I am expecting that AAPL will hit 575 or less this week considering that the Implied volatility is falling on AAPL - Either that or 620 - This is assuming that the IV on options will absolutely plummet by the end of the day.
There are a lot of people who think that AAPL will go down because it ran up too fast. That could be the very reason why it could go up next week. Need to be hedged here.
Does not look like it today - Probably next week ! I wonder how long the option Implied Volatility will be low like this. It is at levels which we have not seen in a very very long time.
I wonder when they will move the stock - As you said there is very less premium left for the sellers. I, for one, believed that this is going to move big today but that does not seem to be the case until now How much more can the option premiums fall before they go up in value again ?
Given that the range for GOOG for any particular week is at the least 20-25 $, it is reasonable to expect that this touches either 1222 or 1187 - Which way will this go ? - Been a very tight range indeed this week.