until they get Pasedena facility earning money. wrote oct 17.50 calls for .25
thats more than the .13 distribution for the quarter!
rebuilt their total working capital this quarter. Distribution would have been .46 otherwise.
write down of goodwill for Pasadena is already reflected with remaining 27 million non cash charge. Illinois operation is kicking #$%$ and nat gas locked in so margins are locked for nice earnings there.
Why would GE capital expand their credit line to 50 million from 35 million and not have financial covenants on the first 35 million? GE wouldn't do that unless the companies prospects improved dramatically.
New board at RTK wanting to enhance values at RTK and RNF may have decided to report earnings after the close today as there may be a lot of details of what they are going to do that they felt better to have release close to their conference call to explain vs. before the open. That would make more sense of whey they switched from what they normally do of releasing before open and have conference call after close.
That could explain why they are releasing earnings and comments after the close today vs. the usual before market opened today. That makes more sense
I'm thinking we will hear what the new board intends to do to enhance the values of both RTK and RNF at this conference call.
no clue but not uncommon that yahoo had it wrong.
I like the fact that we are going to likely see a distribution of 3.5 to 4% this quarter based on a price of 16.00. That will get MLP buyers in for a quick big payout on a oversold stock.
it's all about forecast and with nat gas dropping down big, margins will expand and earnings. This stock has been punished already for last 9 months, way oversold and now that they are back making money the stock will reflect that. Should be trading in 20's based on distributions that will likely be over 2.00 giving it a 10%+ yield. At these prices it's a 12.5% yield, institutions will be buying this up as soon as they see that.
good sign, now looking for 1.71 for 2014 and 1.73 for 2015
right after market closes, good.
with the insider purchases this quarter and shorts covering stock looks ripe for its first move up into a new uptrend.
I think that is reasonable estimate but always chance of beating it like last quarter. Looking foreword is going to be what moves this MLP as nat gas prices have cratered which will greatly improve margins and earnings/distributions going forward. Stock is so oversold here it doesn't reflect that the company's prospects have totally reversed and are heading higher. I expect Agrium or TNH/CF to pounce on RNF while its dirt cheap. With the board turmoil at RTK and investor groups there wanting to sell RNF it is likely to happen as soon as they show a turn in their earnings. One sharp analyst is already predicting it.
Ukraine is big exporter of both ag products and fertilizers. If turmoil increases that will likely get shut off which would be a huge plus for domestic fertilizer prices.
Would not surprise me to see a hostile buyout develop. Agrium is rumored to be on the prowl to buy now with sector undervalued as they are rumored to have approached CF and RNF. RNF makes more sense as Agrium buys a big amount of RNF's output.
Nat Gas is expected to drop to 3.45 by october now. RNF will likely be minting money for the fore seeable future. Stock pricing is way below replacement value, even in light of new credit facility with GE Capital that is saying companies finances have greatly improved otherwise they would have never received such good terms and expansion of borrowing capacity.