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FAB Universal AO Common Stoc Message Board

joebigbuck 238 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 22 minutes ago Member since: Jan 22, 1999
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  • Reply to

    KACO New Energy - The Ultraverter

    by johnnie_beans 15 hours ago
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 2 hours 22 minutes ago Flag

    You should bone up on investing if you think 4% on the margin front is meaningless.

    4% of 100M is 4M....per quarter for ENPH.

    16M over the course of a year

    about .35 cents a share.

    30% growth rate and PEG of 1....normal for a fast growing company.

    Equates to over 10 dollars a share (30 X .35).

    Now figure ENPH is shooting for 38% to 40% gross margins while dropping costs over 30% during the
    next two years.

    Just double that number.

    So yea, 4% on margins to a company on the verge of being profitable is VERY VERY big.

  • Reply to

    KACO New Energy - The Ultraverter

    by johnnie_beans 15 hours ago
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 8 hours ago Flag

    "By partnering with Ampt, KACO new energy has created a solution with the lowest installed cost and smallest balance-of-system (BOS) requirements available in the market today," said Bill Reaugh, senior director of product management at KACO new energy. "PV systems cost less when designed using the blueplanet 1500 TL3 along with Ampt String Optimizers. Both inverter and electrical BOS costs are reduced."

    Wonder why they partnered with Ampt instead of SEDG?

    Won't have much effect on the micro business but might shrink SEDG's margins even lower than they are now.

    ENPH still has the highest margins in the industry that I can find (and say they'll raise them to near 40% in the future). They're good selling their product for a premium but they are also then very good at spending that money on "future" projects

    Based on ENPH's market cap (below 200M) it's pretty clear the markets want to start seeing a payback for all that money being spent...and soon.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 9 hours ago Flag

    I don't get it? Why is NRZ related to the oil industry?

    If anything I would think it would be an inverse relationship.

    Homeowners have more money to pay their mortgage if gas prices are low, right?

  • Reply to

    KACO New Energy - The Ultraverter

    by johnnie_beans 15 hours ago
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 9 hours ago Flag

    Meant to say in Europe. Enphase has competed with KACO successfully across Europe since early 2011.

    But Enphase does have a German web site active. They must sell something over there?

    Maybe they are setting up for the Gen 5 release...but that's not even listed on the their website.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 10 hours ago Flag

    The company won't have a choice. They'll be forced to add another 200M authorized shares. Share holders will vote yes...because they get the shares...well, at least the warrant holders do.

    But didn't they already raise it to 400M?

  • Reply to

    Will Enphase be up against a Wall?

    by johnnie_beans Aug 31, 2015 1:17 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 11 hours ago Flag

    Xiaomi sold 60 Million smart phones last year and has an estimated market cap of around 46 BILLION.

    If Enphase mirrors Xiami they'll be cooking steak and lobsters for years to come.

  • Reply to

    KACO New Energy - The Ultraverter

    by johnnie_beans 15 hours ago
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 11 hours ago Flag

    An "Ultraverter" in Germany, where they are sold, looks to me exactly like a micro inverter in the rest of the world.

    ENPH owns that space 98%.

    Wonder why they only have 5 and 10 year warranties compared to ENPH's 25 year warranty?

    ENPH has already been competing with them successfully in Germany for years, why do you expect
    the US markets will be different?

    They may be a threat to SEDG's Optimizers though, I'd post this info on their board if I was you.

  • Reply to

    Will Enphase be up against a Wall?

    by johnnie_beans Aug 31, 2015 1:17 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck 22 hours ago Flag

    "Enphase is a public company and if Enphase does what Xiaomi does they will be cooked."

    Yea, they'll be cooking Steak and Lobster.

    Xiaomi has an estimated market cap of 46 Billion and sold over 60M smart phones last year.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck 23 hours ago Flag

    The 2.7M that converted turned into 17M shares.

    Now there's only 17M more to convert.

    Figure around 150M if they get lucky and the share price remains steady while the rest convert.

    That would put the market cap around 45M....which is about right.

    Of course, if the share price drops to .15 cents you pretty much add another 100M shares to the mix.

  • Reply to

    Battery costs.........

    by joebigbuck Aug 29, 2015 4:47 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Sep 1, 2015 11:34 PM Flag

    Actually it's a beautiful thing Enphase does not produce batteries. The reason is battery chemistry tech is moving so rapidly a major investment in one tech could turn into a major write off very rapidly. This is the beginning of an article the discusses the risk Telsa is taking by making such a large investment in one battery design.

    "A disruptive shadow looms over Tesla Motors’ giant Nevada “gigafactory”—the threat of rapidly advancing battery technology. While plenty of hurdles face new battery tech, the emergence of a viable and significantly better battery in the next five years could turn Tesla’s $5 billion facility for mass producing lithium-ion batteries into a giga-albatross......"

    This is what Nahi had to say about ENPH and where they get their battery from:

    "The fact is that we have a great battery partner, but we are chemistry agnostic. There is no -- we don't have to be with a particular chemistry. There are going to be multiple chemistries out there, some are going to be outstanding. There's going to be -- I think it's going to be a very contested space. I think we should see significant cost reductions and price reductions over time. We want to stay nimble and loose so while we have an outstanding partner right now that we're very excited to launch with, we are very much agnostic to the battery itself."

    I find it hard to fathom why anyone would criticize Nahi's handling of the development and production of ENPH's AC battery system.

    Odds are they are going to start out with a superior product from day one and stay nimble from there.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Sep 1, 2015 11:42 AM Flag

    So as of Aug 25th there is is about 27M shares outstanding.

    But....18M Series C warrants.

    2.7M Series C so far turned into 17M shares.

    So....18M/2.7M = 6.6 X 17M = 112M additional shares.

    Of course it will be much more than that since as the price lowers the share count raises.

    In spite of the companies comments they haven't paid back a singe share in cash yet. I doubt they ever still gets paid and the company goes on just fine (just with new shareholdes).

    When this is over you'll see a R/S to stay listed....and the world will move on.

    Bottom line....current shares holders pretty much got diluted to the tune of around 95% by the convertibles.

  • Reply to

    Will Enphase be up against a Wall?

    by johnnie_beans Aug 31, 2015 1:17 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Sep 1, 2015 12:45 AM Flag

    First off, TSLA knows nothing about producing and invests about zero in batteries. They partnered with Panasonic, just like ENPH partnered with ELIIY.

    That entire Gigabit factory may have Tesla's name on it, but it's pretty clear it's really Panasonic inside.

    ENPH could have chosen Panasonic, too. But they didn't. Read up on a comparison of the batteries and you'll learn why.

    Now if Panasonic comes up with the greatest battery ever I"m sure ENPH will beat a path to it's door.

    As for working capital I"m guessing after this quarter ENPH will have around 80M available to it (debt should be zero after this about 30M....and a line of credit of 50M). Unless their margins go south like SEDG's they will be cash flow positive every quarter from now on.

    Their battery program and R&D have generated really zero debt. They've been paid along the way because they've been able to consistently generate higher margins due to a superior product. How else do you explain their superior margins?

    Nahi has constantly stated he's paying today for products that have yet to hit the market. One day soon that will change. When and how much revenue they will generate is questionable, but one thing is for sure and that is ENPH is not going deep into red to develop and market their new products.

    "OSAKA, Japan / PALO ALTO, USA, July 31, 2014 – Panasonic Corporation and Tesla Motors, Inc. have signed an agreement that lays out their cooperation on the construction of a large-scale battery manufacturing plant in the United States, known as the Gigafactory.

    According to the agreement, Tesla will prepare, provide and manage the land, buildings and utilities. Panasonic will manufacture and supply cylindrical lithium-ion cells and invest in the associated equipment, machinery, and other manufacturing tools based on their mutual approval."

  • Reply to

    Will Enphase be up against a Wall?

    by johnnie_beans Aug 31, 2015 1:17 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 31, 2015 4:17 PM Flag

    You make no sense.

    So we shouldn't compare ENPH to TSLA....yet you state the battery is the largest cost while the other parts are minimal?

    So you want me to compare the minimal parts cost to determine if ENPH battery will be competitive?


    As for no control over the cost of the battery? Really, like they can't just switch to the most efficient lowest cost option as technology evolves?

    There are advantages and disadvantages to outsourcing. One major advantage is you can just switch manufacturers if someone comes up with a more cost effective product or solution....see Apple which does it all the time.

  • Reply to

    Battery costs.........

    by joebigbuck Aug 29, 2015 4:47 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 31, 2015 4:00 PM Flag

    "Why choose at all? There is no reason they can't do both."

    Yet they choose ELIIY.

    Do the comparisons of the battery each will produce and it becomes a simple choice.

    92% TSLA 5000 cycles

    96% ELIIY 11,000 cycles

    Why buy the inferior product....because they have name brand recognition like SEDG went with?

    If TSLA gets to the point their battery becomes superior and cheaper then why wouldn't ENPH switch?

    As for being able to disconnect from the grid....why would any system not allow that? What, they have
    a secret bobby trap set up to stop you.

  • Reply to

    Battery costs.........

    by joebigbuck Aug 29, 2015 4:47 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 31, 2015 12:59 PM Flag

    The reason why TSLA went into the energy storage market in the first place is simply they do not build enough cars to justify the building of the plant...and won't for at least 5 years (and that's if everything goes their way...which is a big if).

    So TSLA needs to sell those batteries to someone in the meantime.

    You think if ENPH came knocking they would turn down their business?

    Of course not.

    They will partner with anyone willing to buy their batteries at this point...just like every other battery manufacture on the planet.

    ENPH had the whole world of battery manufacturers to chose from...they chose ELIIY.

    Instead of blindly thinking TSLA is biggest and therefore will be the best I dug around a bit.

    Why would ENPH choose ELIIY over TSLA?

    You should ask the same question...if you want to make money.

    Now whether the energy storage business will be a boom or a bust is another question. My only point is ENPH's entry into the market will be a step above the competition.

  • Reply to

    lol almost 1 mln market cap, how ridiculous

    by anderbest18 Aug 31, 2015 9:47 AM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 31, 2015 12:41 PM Flag

    At around .30 cnets shares outstanding should be around it a market cap of around 45M.

    That seems reasonable.

    The problem is the toxic deal is still in place.

    The company recognizes this as they just upped their possible share count from 200M to 400M (shares authorized but not outstanding).

    The reason they had to do this is their is no limit to the number of new shares that will need to be issued. The lower the stock price goes the larger the number of shares that must be given out.

    Day traders are just playing this one is holding it as an investment. It's impossible. l

    The company needs a loan or a white knight...only way out of this mess. Equity raise is impossible with toxic deal already in place.

  • joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 30, 2015 4:13 PM Flag

    SEDG did at least 3 round of venture financing in the last few years and more than likely some of those shares will be looking to exit.

    Venture capitalist usually do not invest long term in companies....they are not looking for dividends.

    Once the company goes public (and the lock up period ends) they look to exit/sell and move on to the next small company looking for venture funding. It's what they do.

    SEDG only sold 7M shares during their IPO....shares outstanding is nearly 40M.

    It's anyone's guess how many of those shares will hit the market....that's what makes a market.

    If you think it will be a small number then it's probably a good time to buy the stock.

    Studies have shown on average share prices tend to drop 10% in the weeks leading up to the lock up expiring.

    SEDG is down far more than that from it's maybe you're right.

  • since he just took a $4.48 billion stake in Phillips 66.

    Wonder what took him so long to figure out what most here figured out long ago (the drop in the price of oil will does not correspond to lower crack spreads...making refiners a big winner whether oil goes up, down or all around/volatile)?

  • joebigbuck by joebigbuck Aug 29, 2015 4:47 PM Flag

    If you want to compare TSLA's storage system to ENPH's start with battery itself.

    TSLA is 92% efficient and will last around 5000 cycles.

    ENPH is 96% efficient and will last over 11,000.

    As for cost....I have no clue but I do know employees cost money.


    Tesla is building a massive battery plant called the Gigafactory in the desert east of Reno, and is planning to hire 6,500 workers over the next eight years.


    "At Kawasaki Plant 2, completed in June 2012, the manufacturing process is operated in a fully automated manner, from blending of cathode and anode materials to inspection of completed battery cells and wrapping of external film. The entire process is centrally managed and can be operated by a minimal number of workers.

    Outfitted with the latest manufacturing equipment, Plant 2 ensures a production capacity of 1 million battery cells per year, which, combined with Plant 1, enables us to produce 1.2 million battery cells per year."

    6500 vs minimal?

    Why the difference?

    "In the past, the fact that lithium iron phosphate had a lower energy density than other cathode materials was an issue. Using a unique method that we have developed, ELIIY Power has succeeded in increasing the energy density by making a thick coating of lithium iron phosphate possible.

    We have developed a unique stacking method for manufacturing equipment that folds the cathode and anode and separator together in a zigzag manner (patent applied for and open for public review).
    Using this stacking method we have realized high-speed manufacturing and large-size that would be impossible with the conventional winding method."

    There is also this from a few months back:

    Paul Nahi, Enphase’s CEO, says that ELIIY is "extremely cost-competitive.” And Belur noted that “with all due respect”, he is very surprised by the high prices being quoted for batteries from companies like Tesla or SolarCity."

    Bottom line: ENPH will be the price leader and superior product from day 1

  • Reply to

    Tesla hires battery brains

    by johnnie_beans Aug 28, 2015 12:30 PM
    joebigbuck joebigbuck Aug 29, 2015 2:13 PM Flag

    "Who are all of the companies selling solar batteries right now?"

    At the moment home storage batteries are lead acid. It was never considered a big market until recently.

    ENPH has been working on it for over a year now but I guess Musk is the one that made it a big deal....billion dollar market potential.

    For all that talk of how superior the power wall will be to ENPH's tiny offering it should be noted that ENPH does not make batteries (or anything else for that matter...they outsource) and could have just as easily have chosen Panasonic (who is selling to TSLA) batteries (all batteries are DC).

    The reason they did not is because they found what they think is a superior product and made a deal with that company ( ELIIY Power).

    As a side note (and a pretty big one) ENPH is again spending large sums of money on expansion plans for Japan. For those that don't know, to make inroads into any Japanese market you have to partner with a Japanese company. Well, ELIIY Power is backed by Daiwa House...who just happens to be the largest home builder in Japan.

    Connect the dots on that one.